This information comes from workforce planning documentation. I'll see if I can release one of the documents. The situation as you described it is not accurate, postgraduate training positions have increased -- and not just in GP land. Here's a little tidbit. We can't attract doctors from the UK as well, and if you work in Australia you will be acutely aware of the amount of locum shifts available, for both RMO/HMO, Registrars and Consultants. Even inner city hospitals are running on fumes at times.
These problems were not anticipated at a national level; in fact the vast increase in medical graduate numbers over the ten years from 2005-2015 had created concern about the “tsunami” of doctors that we would not be able to absorb within the system. There was a tripling of the national medical graduate output from 1320 in 2005, to 3055 in 2015 (Source: Medical Deans of Australia and New Zealand), so this was not an unreasonable assumption and led to a major emphasis on creation of more vocational training positions.
The streamlining of progress to vocational training, and the successful increase in vocational training roles have addressed concerns about where the junior doctors would move to advance their training, but has created a paradox in fueling a demand for more graduates. We have not had a surplus of RMOs unable to advance in their training, and we have needed to continue to import doctors from overseas.
That is, the continued increase in demand for RMOs and Registrars (this term will be used collectively for the Industrial classifications of Principal House Officers and Registrars) has outstripped the increase in supply of interns coming in to feed the growing demand, and the growth in intern numbers has now effectively ceased whilst there is no reason to believe that the growth in demand for RMOs and Registrars will abate, given the continued growth in service demand.
How bad will the situation get?
However, if we have another “failed” recruitment from the UK for the second intake in 2018, we will likely see increasing impact from July 2018, and a likely shortfall in RMOs from 2019, which will increase year on year if the organic growth in demand for this group is maintained. This will start to flow through to the Registrar and PHO ranks as early as 2020/2021. A logical flow would then see stagnation in General Practitioner numbers from 2024, and specialist numbers, timing dependent on the specific training in different Colleges, from approximately 2025.