hmm... looks to be tied so far. The reason I'm asking this is because I read that grades 1st and 2nd year seem to be good predictors of board scores, but not of clerkship grades. I think that's interesting because it seems to me that if people worked hard the 1st 2 years they'd continue to work hard in the clinical years, and grades should reflect that. There are a few possibilities--
1. Hard work doesn't buy you a better grade, it's all about skill
or
2. People who work hard burn out and don't do as well later on, or people who slack off a bit in the beginning can get motivated 3rd and 4th year.
or
3. People who did well in the basic sciences are still working hader and it helps their score, but in general they're not as good at the clinical aspect of medicine so their hard work only brings them up to average.