Hit Rate

[radoncmonkey]

Just wondering, as we all monitor this process by the minute...
What is a decent ratio of interview offers/schools applied to?
For example, If one has applied to 15 schools that have reportedly offered interviews, at what % would the average successful applicant hope to have received interview invitations? Or, perhaps more simply, what % of total # of offers did most people have by this point in the season?
This process is clearly getting to me.
All I can think is that 5 interview is not enough! Hoping for a few more soon!

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[blueMD]

hey, i think im in the same boat as u
good luck to u

 

[radoncmonkey]

hey, i think im in the same boat as u
good luck to u

I applied to 29 and I only have 3 interviews so far. From here, 5 sounds pretty good.

 

[napoleondynamite]

I applied to >70 (almost everywhere) and have 4 invites so far.

 

[napoleondynamite]

In 2005 there were 122 US senior applicants who got 3 or more interviews.. 108/122 matched = 89%

So if you don't have 12 interviews, maybe you'll be glad later that you didn't have to spend so much cash to match (hopefully!)

 

[eidolon]

I was told last year that regardless of the number of programs you applied to initially, if you get interviews at > 10 places and/or ended up ranking at least 8 programs (unless all of your interviews went badly), your odds of matching are very good. Not sure where these numbers came from though. It was just 1 PD's opinion. Anecdotally, most people I knew got interviews at ~50-80% of the places they applied to. For whatever it's worth, the few individuals I knew for sure who did not get > 8 interviews ended up not matching (n was only 2!). Then again, there were people who got interviews practically everywhere who did not match either. Don't lose heart. It's still early in the season.

 

[napoleondynamite]

Page 59:

http://www.nrmp.org/matchoutcomes.pdf

This is the only hard data I've seen on this. Interestingly, more interviews didn't necessarily translate into significantly more success with matching. For example, for those who got between 4-7 interviews, 34/40 of those people matched (85%). For those who got 13 to >15 interviews, 26/29 matched (89%). So if you're the guy who spent $1500 interviewing at 4 programs, that might not be a bad thing considering that a 4% advantage of interviewing at 15 programs would probably cost $6-7,000.

Just looking at this 2005 data, you have a pretty dang good chance if you get 4 or more interviews. Beyond that, you reach a point of diminishing returns. But I am NOT saying that people should reject interview offers to save money..I still think you should go on as many interviews as you can. But this is comforting data to those of us who don't have 15 interviews. ND.

 

[RLMD]

I was told last year that regardless of the number of programs you applied to initially, if you get interviews at > 10 places and/or ended up ranking at least 8 programs (unless all of your interviews went badly), your odds of matching are very good. Not sure where these numbers came from though. It was just 1 PD's opinion. Anecdotally, most people I knew got interviews at ~50-80% of the places they applied to. For whatever it's worth, the few individuals I knew for sure who did not get > 8 interviews ended up not matching (n was only 2!). Then again, there were people who got interviews practically everywhere who did not match either. Don't lose heart. It's still early in the season.

50-80%!! jeez, these people must have been some true superstars. Im at about 20% right now. 6 interviews so far. Im definitely not comfortable with that (shooting for at least 8), but still waiting to hear from 30 or 40 programs, according to how many programs have sent out invites so far from the interview offers sent thread.

 

[radiodog]

I think this "hit rate" stat is somewhat misleading this early in the season. I would guess about half of the programs that have sent out invites so far will send out more. But I do agree getting interviews at 80% of the places you apply to is a little ridiculous and probably limited to a few select applicants. Remeber the people sorting through the applications are human and who gets an interview or not is fairly subjective when the pool of candidates is so strong. I had a PD tell me that after they sorted through the applications and narrowed them down to the best candidates they still had 120. So unless you go to a top med school, are AOA, have 5-10 pubs, and a 250 odds are you will get rejected by more than 20% of the programs.

I would suggest for people applying next year to apply broadly. When I applied I asked myself would I rather be at this program or go unmatched. If the answer was yes I applied. Just my two cents.

 

[stephew]

please note not all interviews are sent out at the same time. Many places will invite some, and then later invite others. Dont get yourself confused and depressed trying to do maths on this.

 

[eidolon]

50-80%!! jeez, these people must have been some true superstars. Im at about 20% right now. 6 interviews so far. Im definitely not comfortable with that (shooting for at least 8), but still waiting to hear from 30 or 40 programs, according to how many programs have sent out invites so far from the interview offers sent thread.

by all means no . . . these people were not superstars. the sample size was small so it may not be representative. my guess is that rejection rate goes up proportionally to the number of programs applied because interviewing a candidate is a major time investment also and the spots are limited. some places may reject people simply because they don't think you'll go there or for whatever reason that may have nothing to do with you.