How Accurate is MedChances

[Drbench]

Has anyone used it? How accurate was it at predicting your odds?

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[Drbench]

bump

 

[Sephirakra]

Never heard of it. Perhaps you should ask in the pre-med forum.

 

[shortcoatdream15]

It's all self reported data which means its garbage - use the MSAR, use Wedgedawg calculator

 

[teenyfish]

Said I had less than a 5% chance of admittance to the school I’m going to. So, didn’t really help. Used WedgeDawg, LizzyM and MSAR. Things were rough but worked out in the end.

 

[themoonman2]

just messed around with it and it seems like they assign an extremely high weight to the school you went to. Doesn't seem very accurate to me

 

[PapaGuava]

Thread moved to the Pre-medical forums.

 

[meronebib]

I respect what it’s trying to do, but what it’s trying to do is just not possible.

 

[rdyotz]

I put in a school that only accepts in-state residents, and I got a 51% chance (despite being out-of-state). So, highly accurate.....

 

[907914]

Says my Harvard chances are 28% and my state school chances are 3.5%. Def trusting this.

 

[TelemarketingEnigma]

just played with it. Gave me below average chances at all of the schools I was accepted to, so...

 

[ggdoc145]

Well, I decided to enroll at the school that I had the lowest chance of acceptance at (4%). Meanwhile, I got my second rejection from a school that gave me a 40% chance of acceptance.

 

[bearsnbeets6]

Hey, I'm one of the MedChances co-founders. I'm glad that you all are using the site, but just thought I'd chime in. I think there are some misconceptions about the accuracy of our site. We provide probabilities, and we hope people will compare their chances to the chances of the average applicant. Regarding the user who had a 28% chance at Harvard but a lower chance at their state school--this is a very real possibility. We have shown in some of our previous analyses that some schools are less likely to accept overqualified applicants. If you feel so inclined, feel free to check out our extensive blog post where we provide fully transparent view into the accuracy of our models for last year's applicants.

Please feel free to reach out with any questions and good luck to all of you!

 

[gyngyn]

Regarding the user who had a 28% chance at Harvard but a lower chance at their state school--this is a very real possibility. We have shown in some of our previous analyses that some schools are less likely to accept overqualified applicants.

State publics tend not to follow this pattern.

 

[DarklingThrush]

Hey, I'm one of the MedChances co-founders. I'm glad that you all are using the site, but just thought I'd chime in. I think there are some misconceptions about the accuracy of our site. We provide probabilities, and we hope people will compare their chances to the chances of the average applicant. Regarding the user who had a 28% chance at Harvard but a lower chance at their state school--this is a very real possibility. We have shown in some of our previous analyses that some schools are less likely to accept overqualified applicants. If you feel so inclined, feel free to check out our extensive blog post where we provide fully transparent view into the accuracy of our models for last year's applicants.

Please feel free to reach out with any questions and good luck to all of you!

One of the other inaccuracies is the ethnicity part... I'm hispanic, but I'm not considered URM... For one T 10 school my chances went from 55% when my ethnicity was hispanic to 14% when my ethnicity was caucasian. I think there should be an option to select URM vs non URM based on ethnicity because just because someone is hispanic does not mean they are URM.

 

[907914]

One of the other inaccuracies is the ethnicity part... I'm hispanic, but I'm not considered URM... For one T 10 school my chances went from 55% when my ethnicity was hispanic to 14% when my ethnicity was caucasian. I think there should be an option to select URM vs non URM based on ethnicity because just because someone is hispanic does not mean they are URM.

Silly question of ignorance: when is Hispanic not URM?

When using the every-day-American version of Hispanic, it means South and Central America. When using the technical definition it would apply to every former Spanish colony and Spain. However, I believe for AAMC purposes, Hispanic is every day meaning, and former colonies (like Philippines) are Asian, and Spain is “white.”

Am I wrong?

 

[gyngyn]

Silly question of ignorance: when is Hispanic not URM?

When using the every-day-American version of Hispanic, it means South and Central America. When using the technical definition it would apply to every former Spanish colony and Spain. However, I believe for AAMC purposes, Hispanic is every day meaning, and former colonies (like Philippines) are Asian, and Spain is “white.”

Am I wrong?

South Americans, Spaniards, Filipinos, Cubans and Portuguese Americans could all be called Hispanic. They do not represent communities that are generally considered UiM, though. Any school may identify one of these communities in their catchment area that is under-served and designate that group, however.
Just about everybody considers Mexican-Americans and mainland Puerto Ricans UiM. In CA, Central Americans are UiM at many schools.
Language skills and commitment to service are always welcome, though.

 

[907914]

South Americans, Spaniards, Filipinos, Cubans and Portuguese Americans could all be called Hispanic. They do not represent communities that are generally considered UiM, though.

Even among the LatinX community?

 

[DarklingThrush]

Silly question of ignorance: when is Hispanic not URM?

When using the every-day-American version of Hispanic, it means South and Central America. When using the technical definition it would apply to every former Spanish colony and Spain. However, I believe for AAMC purposes, Hispanic is every day meaning, and former colonies (like Philippines) are Asian, and Spain is “white.”

Am I wrong?

So basically it has to do with which countries are underrepresented in medicine compared to their overall population in the US... at least that is my understanding... As far as I know, Mexican-Americans and Puerto Ricans are currently underrepresented in the medical field... However, Colombians (like me) are not... There might be a few others that are underrepresented, but you get the gist.

 

[907914]

However, Colombians (like me) are not

Does AMCAS ask for this level of detail? And, beyond your own integrity, what prevents people who “look the part” or “have the name” kind of thing from just marking Mexican? Unfortunately, we live in an America where most people think Hispanic = Mexican anyway...Unfortunately

 

[gyngyn]

Even among the LatinX community?

That's right. The two largest contributors of emigre physicians in CA are India and the Philippines.

 

[gyngyn]

Does AMCAS ask for this level of detail?

Yes.

 

[DarklingThrush]

Does AMCAS ask for this level of detail? And, beyond your own integrity, what prevents people who “look the part” or “have the name” kind of thing from just marking Mexican? Unfortunately, we live in an America where most people think Hispanic = Mexican anyway...Unfortunately

Yep! And I am really glad they do because I do not look hispanic and was very worried about being accused of "gaming the system." It was nice to be able to select Hispanic/Colombian and white for my race. There is nothing stopping people from lying. But you'll get some of that with everything in life. You have no control over what others do. I would like to believe that most premeds are as paranoid as me... I had a hard time selecting my Spanish language proficiency because I was so worried I would overestimate my abilities.

 

[Sephirakra]

Yep! And I am really glad they do because I do not look hispanic and was very worried about being accused of "gaming the system." It was nice to be able to select Hispanic/Colombian and white for my race. There is nothing stopping people from lying. But you'll get some of that with everything in life. You have no control over what others do. I would like to believe that most premeds are as paranoid as me... I had a hard time selecting my Spanish language proficiency because I was so worried I would overestimate my abilities.

I had the exact same thought when I applied in 2017. I look mostly white (unless you throw me out in the sun for a few days), so I was a little concerned when I put Hispanic/Chilean on my app. The only time it came up was when I was invited to interview at my state school on their "diversity outreach" day. Maybe they thought I was lying, because I got a big fat "R" in my inbox a few weeks later. Or maybe it was my so-so undergrad GPA. What's past is past now, I suppose.