It is going to be brutal this year. I don't think it has to do with the 5 to 4 year think, but is probably just more of a cyclic thing. In fact, I think the slight bump this year will pale into comparison compared to the exponential leap next year.
My school has only put about 4 people in path in the last 3 years, but next year there are 7 of us (out of class of 185) that are going into path. Two are MD/PhDs, who I think are also good as far as boards and class rank go (one is "junior" AOA), plus two other are "juniro" AOA and have board scores over 260 (one of which had the highest Step 1 score at my school (265)). The guy that had the 265 also was class president sophmore and junior years. The other two are strong students also. Myself, well, although not as impressive as some of these cats, I think I am good all-around. So that means four of the eight "junior" AOAs (top 3% of the class) are shooting for pathology. The other four AOAs are going into plastics, radiology and ortho. Two of us want to go into forenics, three into academics and two into the community.
I think the days of FMGs filling 30-40% of path postions are done for now.