How long should the lock down last?

[Torsion]

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Any body want to spitball some theories as to why other countries have managed to continue to see declines in new cases, hospitalizations and deaths despite reopening while we continue to plateau? Our media continues to demonize re-opening efforts after taking their 2 week protest pass and our numbers do give them reasonable ammunition. However, countries like France and Germany have been re-opening approximately as long as we have and the experience seems to be different. Cafes are once again crowded in Paris with barely a mask in sight yet they are recovering far more swiftly than we are.

 

[HoosierdaddyO]

The funny thing is as the amount of cases “go up” (won’t look at the fact that the ability and availability of testing has continually gone up exponentially, but the number of deaths and death rate and need for hospitalization continues to go down!!! I think we are ok to open up.

 

[trackrunner321]

The United States is also much larger than Italy, Spain, and Germany with a much larger population. I think that it has just taken the virus longer to spread across the country... Illinois and New York have had similar trajectories as the European countries.

 

[deleted109597]

The United States is also much larger than Italy, Spain, and Germany with a much larger population. I think that it has just taken the virus longer to spread across the country... Illinois and New York have had similar trajectories as the European countries.

That's the thing. Every state would have. But we couldn't lock down interstate travel (like the EU did). And when we locked down places that didn't need it, we made people go out of business. So now everyone wants to open up at once because everyone closed at once.
Every location will have a peak and a drop. Or would have. Now they'll all just plateau along it seems.
Except NY, which everyone considers better, even though they continue to have near the most amount of deaths daily. It just happens that those numbers, while on par or above every other state, are so much lower than their peak that they look like they solved it.

 

[Siggy]

I don't know. A statement like " if we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases" is laughably irrational. It is a tacit endorsement of burying your head in the sand. It really is quite extraordinary for arguably the most powerful person on earth to have said such a thing. I don't know whether it would be better if he were ignorant of how ridiculous he sounds or whether he knows it was absurd and irrational and said it anyway. Neither are good.

Don't forget, when this all started Trump was willing to let Americans die on cruise ships because he "likes the numbers where they are."

 

[Mushdoc]

I think for the "middle people" safety, jobs, and order are going to be very important. A suburban Mom who isn't political might see on the news burning businesses and violence a few blocks from her and vote based on that. Anyone who is a strong supporter of BLM is already not going to vote Trump, and likewise anyone who is against the protests will likely vote for him.

Unfortunately the "middle" only represents 3-5% of the US electorate these days as we are so closely split down partisan lines. I've always thought of the undecideds as low-information voters. There's a pretty clear contrast in political ideology and policy proposals, which should make deciding relatively easy.

Reminds me of this gem

 

[xaelia]

Hospitalizations are more like future deaths than cases.

I mean, just ... take some sensible measures to protect yourself and others. We don't need to force anything closed – tons of bed capacity – but this could be a good time for folks to reassess their behavior.

 

[wamcp]

There is no scientific evidence to support the disastrous two-metre rule

Poor quality research is being used to justify a policy with enormous consequences for us all

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[Birdstrike]

I mean, just ... take some sensible measures to protect yourself and others. We don't need to force anything closed – tons of bed capacity – but this could be a good time for folks to reassess their behavior.

You're correct, good prevention is still a good idea. Where I live, people have clearly made that switch from panic to fatalistic apathy and my town is a coronavirus breeding swamp, no one is wearing masks, people are pouring into town by the tens of thousands and cases are up big time. We've got some positives in my office now, patients and staff. There's no way to control this. It's herd immunity or a vaccine, whichever comes first. Also, we're nowhere near critical bed, ICU or vent status and may never be, since the cases seem to be skewing heavily towards the young. Most of the deaths are happening in nursing homes, now.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

You're correct, good prevention is still a good idea. Where I live, people have clearly made that switch from panic to fatalistic apathy and my town is a coronavirus breeding swamp, no one is wearing masks, people are pouring into town by the tens of thousands and cases are up big time. We've got some positives in my office now, patients and staff. There's no way to control this. It's herd immunity or a vaccine, whichever comes first. Also, we're nowhere near critical bed, ICU or vent status and may never be, since the cases seem to be skewing heavily towards the young. Most of the deaths are happening in nursing homes, now.

The lack of masks is starting to bug me, especially with the increasing evidence that they actually make a pretty big difference.

Columbia and down is way worse, I'd say probably 50% up here which isn't too bad.

 

[Birdstrike]

The lack of masks is starting to bug me, especially with the increasing evidence that they actually make a pretty big difference.

Columbia and down is way worse, I'd say probably 50% up here which isn't too bad.

Oh, yeah. It's like to old viral Wild West here right now. The only protection being used here is sunscreen and flip flops. The only ETOH being utilized is going in stomachs, not on hands. People have clearly decided, "*** it, YOLO."

Cases are up about multiple hundreds of percents. Hospitalizations are up slightly. Deaths haven't budged at all, yet. It's not a good time to be obese, diabetic, or elderly. It just so happens that's what we do best here. It's going to be interesting.

Fortunately, the county south of me has 90% less virus and 90% of the best restaurants.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

Oh, yeah. It's like to old viral Wild West here right now. The only protection being used here is sunscreen and flip flops. The only ETOH being utilized is going in stomachs, not on hands. People have clearly decided, "Eff it, YOLO."

Cases are up about multiple hundreds of percents. Hospitalizations are up slightly. Deaths haven't budged at all, yet. It's not a good time to be obese, diabetic, or elderly. It just so happens that's what we do best here. It's going to be interesting.

Fortunately, the county south of me has 90% less virus and 90% of the best restaurants.

I'm just starting to see positives among patients/friends. Most are mild symptoms. Makes one hopeful.

We're going to Hilton Head next week, slightly concerned about that.

 

[HoosierdaddyO]

I think a lot of this apathetic attitude from people also coincide with the mass protests and riots!!! Most law abiding and generally supportive people see these masses of people on TV who clearly don’t give a hoot and holler about masks and corona and social distancing, and literally breaking ever state and local recommendation without as much as a single involvement from the govt. But that same govt was soooooooo quick to press charges on uncle Ricky who wanted to open his barbershop. So double standard had a lot of people being like **** it!!!

 

[evilbooyaa]

Please stop evading the language filters. Couple of warnings handed out and posts edited.

 

[turkeyjerky]

Please stop evading the language filters. Couple of warnings handed out and posts edited.

Get a load of captain bring-down over here

 

[RustedFox]

Get a load of captain bring-down over here

These filters are pretty lamesauce. Especially here on SDN.

 

[GeneralVeers]

These filters are pretty lamesauce. Especially here on SDN.

I wonder when they will censor trigger words? Wouldn't want to cause a micro-aggression.

 

[Birdstrike]

I wonder when they will censor trigger words? Wouldn't want to cause a micro-aggression.

It's only a matter of time. Only the most milk-toast, non-offensive, posts will be allowed. The experience will then simulate reading an owners manual. Only less interesting.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

I wonder when they will censor trigger words? Wouldn't want to cause a micro-aggression.

Already happening. N-word and R-word get censored. For awhile niggardly was censored but I think they fixed that.

Edited for my awful spelling

 

[Apollyon]

Already happening. N-word and R-word get censored. For awhile niggerdly was censored but I think they fixed that.

Well, it's actually spelled "niggardly".

 

[deleted109597]

It's only a matter of time. Only the most milk-toast, non-offensive, posts will be allowed. The experience will then simulate reading an owners manual. Only less interesting.

Milquetoast. Although I'll allow it because it's basically a made up word.

 

[Birdstrike]

Milquetoast. Although I'll allow it because it's basically a made up word.

This offends me.

.


. 😆

 

[evilbooyaa]

I wonder when they will censor trigger words? Wouldn't want to cause a micro-aggression.

You serious? Excellent strawman.

Don't work around the filter to say the F-word on SDN. Or the S-word. Or the C-word. Like in the ToS.

If you do so, you will be warned.

 

[GeneralVeers]

You serious? Excellent strawman.

Don't work around the filter to say the F-word on SDN. Or the S-word. Or the C-word. Like in the ToS.

If you do so, you will be warned.

Have a bit more of a sense of humor......

 

[RustedFox]

You serious? Excellent strawman.

Don't work around the filter to say the F-word on SDN. Or the S-word. Or the C-word. Like in the ToS.

If you do so, you will be warned.

Yeah; this rule is lamesauce because it's not just the f-word/c-word, it's also whatever word (s) trigger the millennials these days because they like their safe spaces. Slippery slope all day long.

 

[Rekt]

Have a bit more of a sense of humor......

Micropower goes to the head. Plus they probably put it on their resume.

 

[deleted109597]

Micropower goes to the head. Plus they probably put it on their resume.

Hardly. But the goal is to keep an environment where we can vent but also not run off people. Medicine is terrible about eating their young, and abusing the newbies. So if keeping threads on topic and avoiding offensive language is too much for you, then you will get warnings. Continued warnings can prevent you from posting new threads, or outright banning.


You agreed to the ToS when you signed up. Follow them. Last warning.

 

[wamcp]

Any body want to spitball some theories as to why other countries have managed to continue to see declines in new cases, hospitalizations and deaths despite reopening while we continue to plateau? Our media continues to demonize re-opening efforts after taking their 2 week protest pass and our numbers do give them reasonable ammunition. However, countries like France and Germany have been re-opening approximately as long as we have and the experience seems to be different. Cafes are once again crowded in Paris with barely a mask in sight yet they are recovering far more swiftly than we are.

Who cares about the number of cases anymore. It's the young getting them (average age of those testing positive continue to fall) who aren't the ones to die and the old/sick either died already or are protecting themselves/distancing appropriately and less likely to get them.

COVID is just not anywhere near as dangerous as we thought back in March.

1. 93% of total covid deaths in the US are over 55 years old.
2. 99% of covid deaths in Italy had underlying health conditions, most of which are the result of unhealthy lifestyle choices and are preventable.
3. 66% of new infections in New York are in people sheltering at home.
4. 80% of infected people show no symptoms.
5. 450,000 worldwide covid deaths is horrible, but is still a long way from the normal flu which can kill up to 650,000 per year.
6. All covid models estimating the death toll were wrong by orders of magnitude.
7. The CDC now estimates the mortality rate to be between 0.2-0.4%, which is far lower than the original 6-10% that prompted the global lockdown.
8. The curve has been flattened and ICU's are currently not overwhelmed anywhere in the world. Hospital ships have returned to base and field hospitals have been dismantled with most never being used.
9. People who have covid but do not have symptoms rarely transmit it. Covid-19 transmission is the same as all other respiratory viruses we know; it is not a super virus that has vastly different behavior.
10. Children are rarely affected. Child to adult transmission is also rare.
11. Countries that didn't lockdown or close schools are fine.

There isn't going to be zero infections any time soon so people have to assess their personal risk and live accordingly and stop listening to the mud slung around by the media. Life goes on.

 

[bravotwozero]

1. People who have covid but do not have symptoms rarely transmit it. Covid-19 transmission is the same as all other respiratory viruses we know; it is not a super virus that has vastly different behavior.

I think the WHO miscommunicated this statement horribly. They made another statement later on in an attempt to clarify what they meant, which was that they were talking about truly asymptomatic individuals who never end up getting sick, as opposed to Pre-Symptomatic individuals, who may be asymptomatic for a few days and are known to shed the virus. On average, the pre-symptomatic phase can last upto six days, from what I've read.

 

[Siggy]

Countries that didn't lockdown or close schools are fine.

I love how the people keep bringing up the same fake news because they don't want to watch anything but OANN or Fox News for their information. Even Sweden has admitted that they done messed up. So... which of your parents are you willing the kill off to appease the economic Gods? ...or is it only when the other people's parents die that it's acceptable?

"The epidemiologist who led Sweden's controversial COVID-19 response, which did not involve a strict lockdown, now says that the country should have done more to stop the spread of the virus, according to news reports.

"If we were to run into the same disease, knowing exactly what we know about it today, I think we would end up doing something in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done," Anders Tegnell, the state epidemiologist of the Public Health Agency of Sweden, told Swedish Radio on June 3, according to Reuters. "

"We have to admit that when it comes to elderly care and the spread of infection, that has not worked," Prime Minister Stefan Löfven told Swedish newspaper The Aftonbladet Daily, according to Reuters. "Too many old people have died here."

" On the other hand, Bjorn Olsen, a professor of Infectious Medicine at Uppsala University, called the strategy "one of Sweden's biggest embarrassments and most tragic events" in an interview with Reuters. "As long as people are dying, we must try to change."

Sweden's lax COVID-19 response caused too many deaths, country's top epidemiologist says

The country should have done more, he says.

www.livescience.com

 

[Birdstrike]

Yeah; this rule is lamesauce because it's not just the f-word/c-word, it's also whatever word (s) trigger the millennials these days because they like their safe spaces. Slippery slope all day long.

You know America is getting back to normal when people are back to imagining stuff to get offended about.

 

[Birdstrike]

Who cares about the number of cases anymore. It's the young getting them (average age of those testing positive continue to fall) who aren't the ones to die and the old/sick either died already or are protecting themselves/distancing appropriately and less likely to get them.

COVID is just not anywhere near as dangerous as we thought back in March.

1. 93% of total covid deaths in the US are over 55 years old.
2. 99% of covid deaths in Italy had underlying health conditions, most of which are the result of unhealthy lifestyle choices and are preventable.
3. 66% of new infections in New York are in people sheltering at home.
4. 80% of infected people show no symptoms.
5. 450,000 worldwide covid deaths is horrible, but is still a long way from the normal flu which can kill up to 650,000 per year.
6. All covid models estimating the death toll were wrong by orders of magnitude.
7. The CDC now estimates the mortality rate to be between 0.2-0.4%, which is far lower than the original 6-10% that prompted the global lockdown.
8. The curve has been flattened and ICU's are currently not overwhelmed anywhere in the world. Hospital ships have returned to base and field hospitals have been dismantled with most never being used.
9. People who have covid but do not have symptoms rarely transmit it. Covid-19 transmission is the same as all other respiratory viruses we know; it is not a super virus that has vastly different behavior.
10. Children are rarely affected. Child to adult transmission is also rare.
11. Countries that didn't lockdown or close schools are fine.

There isn't going to be zero infections any time soon so people have to assess their personal risk and live accordingly and stop listening to the mud slung around by the media. Life goes on.

I could not have said this better. Thank you.

 

[SeekerOfTheTree]

I love how the people keep bringing up the same fake news because they don't want to watch anything but OANN or Fox News for their information. Even Sweden has admitted that they done messed up. So... which of your parents are you willing the kill off to appease the economic Gods? ...or is it only when the other people's parents die that it's acceptable?

"The epidemiologist who led Sweden's controversial COVID-19 response, which did not involve a strict lockdown, now says that the country should have done more to stop the spread of the virus, according to news reports.

"If we were to run into the same disease, knowing exactly what we know about it today, I think we would end up doing something in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done," Anders Tegnell, the state epidemiologist of the Public Health Agency of Sweden, told Swedish Radio on June 3, according to Reuters. "

"We have to admit that when it comes to elderly care and the spread of infection, that has not worked," Prime Minister Stefan Löfven told Swedish newspaper The Aftonbladet Daily, according to Reuters. "Too many old people have died here."

" On the other hand, Bjorn Olsen, a professor of Infectious Medicine at Uppsala University, called the strategy "one of Sweden's biggest embarrassments and most tragic events" in an interview with Reuters. "As long as people are dying, we must try to change."

Sweden's lax COVID-19 response caused too many deaths, country's top epidemiologist says

The country should have done more, he says.

www.livescience.com

Just curious what your proposal would have been? And please don't repeat trust the science, contact tracing, increased testing. I am tired of hearing these terms from people who have no understanding of how much people hate other people here. No one wants to share where they were or what their name is much less sign up to give that information after they get sick. Should we stay shutdown till there is a vaccine? Please don't cite South Korea and New Zealand. Asian culture and an island nation are stark contrasts to what the US.

The argument on this forum has no middle ground and is very politically divided. No one actually has a good answer but everyone quickly shoots down anything that doesn't align with their party lines.

People died and that's a fact. Could less people have died if we knew all this before? Sure. I could have also been a millionaire had I put my retirement into TSLA last year.

P.S. Before you jumped on him I don't understand how what he said about schools that triggered you to mention the Swedish genocide.

 

[Rekt]

I love how the people keep bringing up the same fake news because they don't want to watch anything but OANN or Fox News for their information. Even Sweden has admitted that they done messed up. So... which of your parents are you willing the kill off to appease the economic Gods? ...or is it only when the other people's parents die that it's acceptable?

"The epidemiologist who led Sweden's controversial COVID-19 response, which did not involve a strict lockdown, now says that the country should have done more to stop the spread of the virus, according to news reports.

"If we were to run into the same disease, knowing exactly what we know about it today, I think we would end up doing something in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done," Anders Tegnell, the state epidemiologist of the Public Health Agency of Sweden, told Swedish Radio on June 3, according to Reuters. "

"We have to admit that when it comes to elderly care and the spread of infection, that has not worked," Prime Minister Stefan Löfven told Swedish newspaper The Aftonbladet Daily, according to Reuters. "Too many old people have died here."

" On the other hand, Bjorn Olsen, a professor of Infectious Medicine at Uppsala University, called the strategy "one of Sweden's biggest embarrassments and most tragic events" in an interview with Reuters. "As long as people are dying, we must try to change."

Sweden's lax COVID-19 response caused too many deaths, country's top epidemiologist says

The country should have done more, he says.

www.livescience.com

The first response is very reasonable. We would have done something between lockdown and completely opening. Essentially a hollow response to soothe people about people that have died. The last statement is absurd. Covid is here to stay. You aren't going to stop people from dying.

 

[deleted109597]

I love how the people keep bringing up the same fake news because they don't want to watch anything but OANN or Fox News for their information. Even Sweden has admitted that they done messed up. So... which of your parents are you willing the kill off to appease the economic Gods? ...or is it only when the other people's parents die that it's acceptable?

"The epidemiologist who led Sweden's controversial COVID-19 response, which did not involve a strict lockdown, now says that the country should have done more to stop the spread of the virus, according to news reports.

"If we were to run into the same disease, knowing exactly what we know about it today, I think we would end up doing something in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done," Anders Tegnell, the state epidemiologist of the Public Health Agency of Sweden, told Swedish Radio on June 3, according to Reuters. "

"We have to admit that when it comes to elderly care and the spread of infection, that has not worked," Prime Minister Stefan Löfven told Swedish newspaper The Aftonbladet Daily, according to Reuters. "Too many old people have died here."

" On the other hand, Bjorn Olsen, a professor of Infectious Medicine at Uppsala University, called the strategy "one of Sweden's biggest embarrassments and most tragic events" in an interview with Reuters. "As long as people are dying, we must try to change."

Sweden's lax COVID-19 response caused too many deaths, country's top epidemiologist says

The country should have done more, he says.

www.livescience.com

We can disagree though.
Remember, this is just the first quarter. This virus isn't going away. The higher deaths now will likely portend fewer deaths in the future, but we don't know that yet. So while people want to spike the football on Sweden (and the US for some reason, even though our death per capita is similar to most European countries not named Norway or Germany), we will have to wait for awhile.
However, every person who says "which of your parents are you willing to kill" needs to think about what they're saying. The other side of the argument is "how many of your friends do you want to lose their jobs/livelihood?"
I mean, in Vancouver, the number of deaths from COVID is lower than the number from opioid overdoses. Suicidality is way up. And we are just now seeing the economic damages. This will be long lasting.

 

[MHYDE]

I love how the people keep bringing up the same fake news because they don't want to watch anything but OANN or Fox News for their information. Even Sweden has admitted that they done messed up. So... which of your parents are you willing the kill off to appease the economic Gods? ...or is it only when the other people's parents die that it's acceptable?

"The epidemiologist who led Sweden's controversial COVID-19 response, which did not involve a strict lockdown, now says that the country should have done more to stop the spread of the virus, according to news reports.

"If we were to run into the same disease, knowing exactly what we know about it today, I think we would end up doing something in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done," Anders Tegnell, the state epidemiologist of the Public Health Agency of Sweden, told Swedish Radio on June 3, according to Reuters. "

"We have to admit that when it comes to elderly care and the spread of infection, that has not worked," Prime Minister Stefan Löfven told Swedish newspaper The Aftonbladet Daily, according to Reuters. "Too many old people have died here."

" On the other hand, Bjorn Olsen, a professor of Infectious Medicine at Uppsala University, called the strategy "one of Sweden's biggest embarrassments and most tragic events" in an interview with Reuters. "As long as people are dying, we must try to change."

Sweden's lax COVID-19 response caused too many deaths, country's top epidemiologist says

The country should have done more, he says.

www.livescience.com

The Reuters article linked to in the Livescience article carries the headline: "Sweden should have done more against coronavirus but broad strategy right - chief epidemiologist", as the "done messed up" tone of the original articles had to be walked back after Tegnell objected to that characterization. He still believes they had the right overall strategy but felt some aspects could have been done better. Wouldn't most countries say the same about their own strategies?

I agree with some other commenters too that the "which of your parents" question is juvenile and unhelpful. We are discussing public health. Yes, these are questions of life and death. But we should have the maturity and expertise to be adults about it.

 

[GeneralVeers]

Sweden made the same mistake almost every country made except Germany. They didn't lock down nursing homes early, and didn't take other measures to protect them. Broadly, their other minor steps were the right thing to do in comparison to our economic Hari-Kari.

 

[Siggy]

Just curious what your proposal would have been? And please don't repeat trust the science, contact tracing, increased testing. I am tired of hearing these terms from people who have no understanding of how much people hate other people here. No one wants to share where they were or what their name is much less sign up to give that information after they get sick. Should we stay shutdown till there is a vaccine? Please don't cite South Korea and New Zealand. Asian culture and an island nation are stark contrasts to what the US.

Yep... again... "We don't want to do the things that actually prevent spread, like testing (Trump, "We only have a lot of cases because we test... if we didn't test we wouldn't have cases" sort of either malignant, ignorant, or magical thinking), we don't want old people to die, and we don't want to quarantine when we don't have any information because we don't want to test because "we like the numbers the way they are."

Because people are stupid and malignant shouldn't be reasons to not actually follow science.

The argument on this forum has no middle ground and is very politically divided. No one actually has a good answer but everyone quickly shoots down anything that doesn't align with their party lines.

Science, apparently, has a liberal agenda... We should just take disinfectants and take "the light" inside, right?

 

[Siggy]

I agree with some other commenters too that the "which of your parents" question is juvenile and unhelpful. We are discussing public health. Yes, these are questions of life and death. But we should have the maturity and expertise to be adults about it.

...and we should have the maturity to recognize that not doing anything results in deaths, and if that's what you're advocating you should be willing to pay the piper yourself. Too many people want the easy path without any costs to them. That's simply not reality.

 

[Siggy]

We can disagree though.
Remember, this is just the first quarter. This virus isn't going away. The higher deaths now will likely portend fewer deaths in the future, but we don't know that yet. So while people want to spike the football on Sweden (and the US for some reason, even though our death per capita is similar to most European countries not named Norway or Germany), we will have to wait for awhile.

Moral of the story, have a scientist run the country.

However, every person who says "which of your parents are you willing to kill" needs to think about what they're saying. The other side of the argument is "how many of your friends do you want to lose their jobs/livelihood?"
I mean, in Vancouver, the number of deaths from COVID is lower than the number from opioid overdoses. Suicidality is way up. And we are just now seeing the economic damages. This will be long lasting.

It's easier to find a new job than a new life. The 23 year old and 49 year old that died at my hospital aren't going to have a chance to find a new livelihood or job.

Of course this is assuming that there's not an actual option besides "shut down everything" and "ignore SARS-CoV-2." You know... science... wide spread testing and contact tracing. Yet we're left with...

" “They would like to have the people come off. I’d rather have the people stay, but I’d go with them. I told them to make the final decision. I would rather, because I like the numbers being where they are. I don’t need to have the numbers double because of one ship,” Trump said. "
-https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-trump-numbers-anal/trumps-focus-on-coronavirus-numbers-could-backfire-health-experts-say-idUSKBN20W16E

Well... maybe his tone has changed as we've learned more information, right?


"If you don't test, you don't have any cases. If we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases, if any, but we do."
-https://news.yahoo.com/trump-coronavirus-testing-stopped-testing-212011656.html

[Fail horn]

 

[deleted109597]

Number of deaths<<<<<<<<Number of jobs lost. (currently at 121,289 vs 30,000,000-40,000,000)
Also, not wearing a mask does not equal killing grandma. Yes, people should wear them. But making baseless comparisons is more likely to push them the other direction, as we've learned with antivaxxer discussions over the last 20 years.
Not saying they should be equal, but we likely cannot do anything to prevent deaths. We can "flatten" the curve, not remove it outright. As long as we aren't exceeding ICU capacity, which was the whole point of flattening the curve.
NZ will either get more cases, or they will stay locked down until 2022. The number of cases will directly depend on the amount of movement of people.

 

[Siggy]

Number of deaths<<<<<<<<Number of jobs lost. (currently at 121,289 vs 30,000,000-40,000,000)
Also, not wearing a mask does not equal killing grandma. Yes, people should wear them. But making baseless comparisons is more likely to push them the other direction, as we've learned with antivaxxer discussions over the last 20 years.
Not saying they should be equal, but we likely cannot do anything to prevent deaths. We can "flatten" the curve, not remove it outright. As long as we aren't exceeding ICU capacity, which was the whole point of flattening the curve.
NZ will either get more cases, or they will stay locked down until 2022. The number of cases will directly depend on the amount of movement of people.

You talk about masks, I talked about contact tracing.

You want to coddle people who don't believe in science and hand out participation trophies... I simply want to follow science.

 

[deleted109597]

You talk about masks, I talked about contact tracing.

Contract tracing is less effective than masks, and nobody has been able to do it correctly yet.

You want to coddle people who don't believe in science and hand out participation trophies... I simply want to follow science.

Putting words in my mouth.
Coddling people is not what I want to do in any way shape or form. However, you have to realize delivery means something, and if you call someone stupid, you get nothing. Or, more importantly, 4 more years of Trump. Think about it.

 

[xaelia]

Who cares about the number of cases anymore. It's the young getting them (average age of those testing positive continue to fall) who aren't the ones to die and the old/sick either died already or are protecting themselves/distancing appropriately and less likely to get them.

COVID is just not anywhere near as dangerous as we thought back in March.

1. 93% of total covid deaths in the US are over 55 years old.
2. 99% of covid deaths in Italy had underlying health conditions, most of which are the result of unhealthy lifestyle choices and are preventable.
3. 66% of new infections in New York are in people sheltering at home.
4. 80% of infected people show no symptoms.
5. 450,000 worldwide covid deaths is horrible, but is still a long way from the normal flu which can kill up to 650,000 per year.
6. All covid models estimating the death toll were wrong by orders of magnitude.
7. The CDC now estimates the mortality rate to be between 0.2-0.4%, which is far lower than the original 6-10% that prompted the global lockdown.
8. The curve has been flattened and ICU's are currently not overwhelmed anywhere in the world. Hospital ships have returned to base and field hospitals have been dismantled with most never being used.
9. People who have covid but do not have symptoms rarely transmit it. Covid-19 transmission is the same as all other respiratory viruses we know; it is not a super virus that has vastly different behavior.
10. Children are rarely affected. Child to adult transmission is also rare.
11. Countries that didn't lockdown or close schools are fine.

There isn't going to be zero infections any time soon so people have to assess their personal risk and live accordingly and stop listening to the mud slung around by the media. Life goes on.

2. -> Good thing the U.S. is the picture of health, with good lifestyle choices and no underlying medical conditions.
4. -> ???
5. -> The range for the estimate for the study you cite was 290,000 to 650,000 – and we're nowhere near the end of accounting for COVID deaths.
7. -> CDC estimate is junk; the IFR is obviously not the current CFR, but it's ignorant to cite the CDC estimate as true.
8. -> easily refutable using Google
11. -> ???

 

[AMEHigh]

Who cares about the number of cases anymore. It's the young getting them (average age of those testing positive continue to fall) who aren't the ones to die and the old/sick either died already or are protecting themselves/distancing appropriately and less likely to get them.

COVID is just not anywhere near as dangerous as we thought back in March.

1. 93% of total covid deaths in the US are over 55 years old.
2. 99% of covid deaths in Italy had underlying health conditions, most of which are the result of unhealthy lifestyle choices and are preventable.
3. 66% of new infections in New York are in people sheltering at home.
4. 80% of infected people show no symptoms.
5. 450,000 worldwide covid deaths is horrible, but is still a long way from the normal flu which can kill up to 650,000 per year.
6. All covid models estimating the death toll were wrong by orders of magnitude.
7. The CDC now estimates the mortality rate to be between 0.2-0.4%, which is far lower than the original 6-10% that prompted the global lockdown.
8. The curve has been flattened and ICU's are currently not overwhelmed anywhere in the world. Hospital ships have returned to base and field hospitals have been dismantled with most never being used.
9. People who have covid but do not have symptoms rarely transmit it. Covid-19 transmission is the same as all other respiratory viruses we know; it is not a super virus that has vastly different behavior.
10. Children are rarely affected. Child to adult transmission is also rare.
11. Countries that didn't lockdown or close schools are fine.

There isn't going to be zero infections any time soon so people have to assess their personal risk and live accordingly and stop listening to the mud slung around by the media. Life goes on.

In your experience has the morbidity of covid been the same that you’ve seen with other respiratory viruses?

I’m not so worried about the amount of people that have died, but the morbidity seems entirely different from anything we’ve seen.

I’ve had patients who have seemed to recover but then a few weeks later end up having a stroke. The people with kidney failure and on HD seems like an unprecedented amount. It’s often taking weeks to months for people to feel better. Many of these things are happening in younger people.

It seems pretty dangerous to me, but maybe your patients aren’t suffering the same morbidity? I rarely watch the news so that’s not where I’m getting this info from, it’s from my anecdotal experiences and reading the literature.

*I am beginning to go out more, while wearing a masking and certainly don’t think things should be locked down forever. But it seems like from a medical standpoint to act like Covid is behaving like other respiratory virus seems false, but again maybe your patient’s morbidity is different than here so that’s why I’m asking.

 

[SeekerOfTheTree]

Yep... again... "We don't want to do the things that actually prevent spread, like testing (Trump, "We only have a lot of cases because we test... if we didn't test we wouldn't have cases" sort of either malignant, ignorant, or magical thinking), we don't want old people to die, and we don't want to quarantine when we don't have any information because we don't want to test because "we like the numbers the way they are."

Because people are stupid and malignant shouldn't be reasons to not actually follow science.





Science, apparently, has a liberal agenda... We should just take disinfectants and take "the light" inside, right?

You use distraction as a tool in your arguments. They don't answer questions; all they do is bring up things that are not related to this discussion at all and hope you will do a good job in stringing together random statements to prove something? Not sure what you're trying to prove at this point. We should do 300million tests every 14 days? Is that your point?

Did I say anything about the light or disinfectants?

 

[Rekt]

In your experience has the morbidity of covid been the same that you’ve seen with other respiratory viruses?

I’m not so worried about the amount of people that have died, but the morbidity seems entirely different from anything we’ve seen.

I’ve had patients who have seemed to recover but then a few weeks later end up having a stroke. The people with kidney failure and on HD seems like an unprecedented amount. It’s often taking weeks to months for people to feel better. Many of these things are happening in younger people.

It seems pretty dangerous to me, but maybe your patients aren’t suffering the same morbidity? I rarely watch the news so that’s not where I’m getting this info from, it’s from my anecdotal experiences and reading the literature.

*I am beginning to go out more, while wearing a masking and certainly don’t think things should be locked down forever. But it seems like from a medical standpoint to act like Covid is behaving like other respiratory virus seems false, but again maybe your patient’s morbidity is different than here so that’s why I’m asking.

Do you have the data to support any of these claims? I often hear of people saying the "young are affected too!!!!!", But then disappear when asked to produce anything beyond a simple anecdote. Even with these anecdotes about "young people" they purposefully fail to mention they're HD patients that are morbidly obese with HTN DM etc.

Also it's always people saying well I tube a covid 26 and 30 year old!!! So? What about the 20-30 year olds I code every 2-3 shifts for overdoses (not to mention that's gone up recently). All the morbidity and mortality from CP patients, stroke patients, bleeds, etc avoiding the ED from media hysteria? Why do all these people matter less?

 

[AMEHigh]

Do you have the data to support any of these claims? I often hear of people saying the "young are affected too!!!!!", But then disappear when asked to produce anything beyond a simple anecdote. Even with these anecdotes about "young people" they purposefully fail to mention they're HD patients that are morbidly obese with HTN DM etc.

Also it's always people saying well I tube a covid 26 and 30 year old!!! So? What about the 20-30 year olds I code every 2-3 shifts for overdoses (not to mention that's gone up recently). All the morbidity and mortality from CP patients, stroke patients, bleeds, etc avoiding the ED from media hysteria? Why do all these people matter less?

I'm at work right now so don't have time to do an extensive report, but here's just a short blurb about kidney complications with covid:

COVID-19

COVID-19 is the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that emerged in December 2019. Learn about symptoms, diagnosis, treatment and prevention.

www.hopkinsmedicine.org

I'm sure if you've been following the literature you can find a lot of information about how covid causes complications, but if I have time and the band width later I'll be sure and come back and post links.

My post wasn't pointing out just that some young people are affected by covid.
My post was pointing out that from what I've read an anecdotally covid seems to be affecting people differently than influenza, rsv, adenovirus, etc. I personally haven't read many reports about influenza causing kidney complications requiring HD and leading to strokes from clotting. I was wondering if the person I quoted was having a different experience with their patients with covid.

My point was to say that I don't think we should JUST look at mortality, but also morbidity. Like every other disease we study we don't just look at mortality. If people both young and old are surviving covid, but have months or years of morbidity and complications I think it would be common sense that we shouldn't just throw our hands up and say oh well, just old people are dying from this so no biggie.

As a physician I think it's certainly important to look at the data from all aspects. I"m not sure why that should be controversial amongst physicians.

 

[GeneralVeers]

People like Siggy keep praying to the alter of the high and mighty "science".

Science in the case of COVID is a set of data based on observations, testing, and statistical analysis. "Science" does not tell us whether to open or close the economy, as science doesn't care one way or the other.

The decision to open or close the economy is a political, not a scientific one. The decision is based on data (science), culture, and the political climate, hopefully balanced against job loss, deaths from despair, and degradation to the healthcare system.

The "Science" has led politicians to generally favor shut downs without balancing the other end of the equation.

I wholeheartedly disagree with Siggy, who likely has a secure job with at least some income that putting 30-40 million people out of work, and destroying livelihoods was worth the balance of theoretical saved lives. We still haven't calculated the loss of life, mental health, livelihoods from the shutdowns, but it will almost certainly eclipse 200,000, mostly elderly people at the end of their lives who will be claimed.

The arrogance of all these politicians and scientists who have secure jobs who advocate for the destruction of other poeple's lives is astonishing. I think their opinion would change if they were forced to go without salary, and had to quit their jobs through the extent of the lockdowns.\\\

For many people lockdown = death.

 

[MHYDE]

Science in the case of COVID is a set of data based on observations, testing, and statistical analysis. "Science" does not tell us whether to open or close the economy, as science doesn't care one way or the other.

The decision to open or close the economy is a political, not a scientific one. The decision is based on data (science), culture, and the political climate, hopefully balanced against job loss, deaths from despair, and degradation to the healthcare system.

The "Science" has led politicians to generally favor shut downs without balancing the other end of the equation.

This is what is aggravating about elected officials incessantly invoking “the science”. The science told the governor of Michigan that playgrounds were safe but swimming pools were not, while the governor of Ohio got the exact opposite message. Both following the science. Scientists and experts can advise but leaders should lead. When I hear someone say they are “following the science” I prepare to hear a cop-out.