If Hawaii is doing such great job epidemiologically, whis is their rate of spread and contagiousness of COVID-19 the highest in the country right now, with an R0 of 1.56? Doing great, or furthest away and last to get hit?
It's D-list Panic Porn. CNN is one of my favorite channels now. I watch CNN and Drunk History when I want to laugh my *** off.
Did we "punt" as a nation? In the face of predictions showing 2.2 million Americans likely to die, we took the aggressive move of shutting down the whole nation, in an economically devastating way that's never been done before, and now face a death toll likely to be 90% less than was predicted. Based on the worlds most respected experts' predictions of 2.2 million American deaths, that's as big a win as wins get. Have we ever saved 2.2 million American lives with a mere punt? I don't know. But if this was a "punt," I think it's safe to say this was the baddest a** punt of all time.
Not if it merely delayed things do to continued politicization of infection control measures. Is COVID over? Because I've got a Children's Hospital that's admitting patients, an ED full of hypoxic COVID holds, and 2 weeks worth of new cases over a weekend. This dichotomy between shutdown and full return to pre-COVID behavior is perpetuated for political purposes and has screwed over the nation from an infection control standpoint. I'd love to join your victory lap, but it's hard to do so when the struggle is exponentially intensifying.
I was simply pointing out that the "punt" you were describing was a reduction in US deaths of over 90%, from your >2 million predicted. That's 1.8 million American lives saved. I find it interesting that if you save one life you likely feel pretty good about it, but if 1.8 million American lives are saved by someone else it's a negative.
I agree 100%. My area is getting slammed because people are coming to my town on vacation and throwing caution to the wind. The bad news is, our cases are doubling every 9 days. The good news is, the cases are now skewing heavily towards the younger healthier population, so the death rate hasn't increased. My assumption is that we'll follow that same rapid peak, short plateau, then gradual decline, like everywhere else that's gotten hit. It is what it is.
We may not have seen anyone "ride out" COVID yet, but we're about to see it. Because COVID's not gone and life goes on.
The only people requesting a returns to lock-down are those who either don't need to work, or those in "essential services" who know further lock-downs won't affect their income. In other-words, they want everyone else to go bankrupt for their benefit, while they keep cashing checks.
Exactly. People are over it. They gave the government one shot at a "lock-down" and that's it. After following the lock-down recommendations to the financial breaking point, there's simply no appetite, and no real ability, for more.
You have a certain solution at your fingertips. What's stopping you from "locking down" right now by quitting your job for the next 6 months? You won't have to worry about getting coronavirus. You won't have to worry about running out of PPE. It will save your life. What's stopping you?
Atta boy
So no one else is going to die from COVID, glad to know that. The dozen plus IMU and ICU borders in my ED with COVID are likewise relieved. And nothing could have been modified prior to reopening to prevent this from happening? Just want to make sure I’m accurately picking up what you’re putting down.
You’re not accurately “picking up what I’m putting down.”
That’s not what I said. Plenty of people are going to die from COVID. You know that and I know that. Washing hands, wearing masks, sick patients quarantining, social isolation by those high risk and anyone wanting to lower risk, vaccine development, proper resource utilization and medical treatment for the ill might help. Other than that, I’m not sure what will.
I don’t know what could have prevented it. You tell me what else should have been done to prevent your ED boarders from getting COVID, that would have been both effective. plausible, and wasn’t already tried?
Second highest Rt in the nation?Hawaii has been doing pretty well. The lt governor is a practicing ER doctor.
They've used basic epidemiological work to keep things under control.
How Hawaii Became a Rare Covid Success Story
The islands’ geography and small population helped. But so did two enterprising doctors who pushed for aggressive tracing and testing—and sometimes found themselves at odds.www.politico.com
covid19.healthdata.org
I thought regular corona viruses conferred a fairly short term immunity.
People that get COVID test positive. Then later they no longer have it and test negative. That’s proof of an immune response. If that immune response didn’t exist the virus would be chronic. It’s not. If the response didn’t last some amount of time, all people would quickly be reinfected by their own viral shed or all get reinfected again until everyone had the virus. You’re correct that the peaking and waning of outbreaks is proof of at least some limmunity lasting some amount of time.
Universal mask wearing. Modeling of mask wearing and social distancing at all levels of government including the president with constant PSAs from social media figures from all parts of the political spectrum. Learning to live with the virus in 2020 means learning to live with a mask on and there’s way too much of the country that doesn’t realize that.
Having the President wear a mask would not slow COVID. But it would cause CNN and MSNBC to announce, "Masks Are Russian Plot to Kill Americans," because Trump was wearing one, "obviously forced by Putin." Democrats would stop wearing masks and Republicans would start. Coronavirus hot spots would shift from red states back to blue. Biden's people would start running ads saying, "Trump looks weak wearing a mask. He knows he's old and will die if he gets COVID. Biden is isn't wearing one anymore because he's brave and strong like his voters."
Uh...lol. Same reason you're okay with Trump not wearing a mask?
The development of herd immunity is not an all or none event. It builds gradually. When 20-30% of people have immunity that's still 20-30% less host-targets for this virus to get into, replicate and spread from.
If they have no immunity and only behavioral change caused viral spread to slow down, why would they be reopening at all, if they have no immunity, and behavioral change is the only brake and accelerator? What's to protect NYC from another viral surge with any amount of reopening?
Reliable reports or not, more lethal strains will kill more people and therefore have less hosts to spread them. Less lethal strains will kill less hosts and therefore have more living host from within which to replicate and then be spread. Soon, the less lethal strains outnumber the more lethal ones. This is 99.9% certain to happen.
This is certainly happening and would explain why many states are showing case increases in the hundreds of percents, with little or not change in daily deaths, still. I'd be happy to post those graphs again, like I did a few days ago, because I looked at them again today. Still none of the daily death graphs show matching rises.
Yep.
Aw, come on. Can't we have any fun on this forum? What a bore it would be without some jabs, wild (accurate) hypothesizing and unhelpful distractions? You remember when reading this forum was like watching paint dry, only watching pain drying was more interesting, right?
Because they vote.
Looks like 4 counties only (1.7%) out of 254. Restaurants, bars, and shopping are all open state-wide, and there's no stay-at-home order. -Texas Tribune
May be marginal public health benefit if people think they’re not going to get care and change behavior accordingly. The range of activities performed by people that are “isolating” and “quarantining” are astounding.
Where, Texas?
Total COVID-19 cases per million population, as of 6/25/20-
