How long should the lock down last?

[Birdstrike]

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Deaths have held about steady with ~25 deaths per day for the last 3 weeks. Looks like the "spike" in cases started around June 15. So by July 1st we should be seeing a significant increase in deaths. If not, then this is fake news.

Since mid May, daily cases in Texas have quadrupled. Deaths have gone from an average range of about 30, to an average of about 30. That's 6 weeks of cases quadrupling and not any detectable increase in deaths? Thousands and thousands of extra people testing positive and not any appreciable number of them have died in 6 weeks? Even if you use 4 weeks as the beginning of the rise in cases, not any significant number have died in 4 weeks?

What happened to the "He walked in an was a little short of breath and in 2 days he was dead" COVID from April?
What about the thousands of Texas nursing home residents that are DNR/DNI?
All of a sudden COVID needs multiple months to kill them?

I'm not trying to advance any agenda. I really just want to know the answer to these questions.

@Arcan57 ??

 

[Birdstrike]

There were almost 120 COVID deaths today in AZ/FL/TX combined, which have 60 million people. NY state had 800/day at peak - 20x as many per capita.

Deaths do lag. The rise in ICU cases is concerning. But this case increase is now about 4 weeks old. It won’t be much longer that we’ll know for sure, if this rise in cases is going to lead to a statistically significant increase in daily deaths.

 

[Apollyon]

Good luck since they check the signatures to make sure they match.

You must be a total hit at parties.

 

[GeneralVeers]

So can anyone explain why kids in some states won't be back to school? In several counties in VA they announced kids won't have full time Classes in the fall.

They shut the schools down before we had epidemiological evidence. We now know that kids generally don't spread amongst each other, and it's rare for them to spread to adults. Furthermore their risk of dying from COVID is inconsequential. Is there any logical reason to keep the schools shut down other than politica/union ones?

 

[deleted109597]

So can anyone explain why kids in some states won't be back to school? In several counties in VA they announced kids won't have full time Classes in the fall.

They shut the schools down before we had epidemiological evidence. We now know that kids generally don't spread amongst each other, and it's rare for them to spread to adults. Furthermore their risk of dying from COVID is inconsequential. Is there any logical reason to keep the schools shut down other than politica/union ones?

Honestly, no. It's all thoughts and feelings. Kids are more likely to die driving to school than they are to die of COVID at school.
Texas said they're opening. People on Twitter are already railing on the state.
Distance learning was trash, and it hurt low SES people the most. No good will come of not opening the schools.

 

[MHYDE]

Honestly, no. It's all thoughts and feelings. Kids are more likely to die driving to school than they are to die of COVID at school.
Texas said they're opening. People on Twitter are already railing on the state.
Distance learning was trash, and it hurt low SES people the most. No good will come of not opening the schools.

Our schools will be at most 50% in person. Full school is not on the table until Phase 6 (out of 6), which requires “high uptake of an effective vaccine”. Our elementary school just had a day for families to pick stuff up our kids left in their lockers. Citing “severe safety concerns”, we had to drive up, yell our kid’s name through a closed window, and pop our trunk. And despite staying in the car with windows up, we had to have masks on. We will never go back to school.

My county with 400k people has been recording single digit daily cases for the last 3 weeks. Our county has seen one death in a person under 60. We will never be able to undo what we’ve done.

 

[Birdstrike]

So can anyone explain why kids in some states won't be back to school? In several counties in VA they announced kids won't have full time Classes in the fall.

The only logical reason is that the old farts that run the schools are worried about themselves, not the kids. I was just looking at the CDC age adjusted relative risks for COVID vs influenza. For kids it's less than the flu. For older adults, it significantly worse. But for kids "it's not the flu bro," literally, because it's not even near as bad. But hysteria must prevail!

In my location, they're currently putting together a plan to send kids back, with a contingency plan if the s**t hits the fan combined with a bad flu season, of course, but with the overall goal of getting kids back to normal school. Thank God. My kids deserve a normal education and to live a normal life. I'm willing to accept whatever very small risk there is to me from corona, so they can grow up living a normal life, like I did, not the life of a hermit. The elderly, fearful, and those at-risk should quarantine as much as they feel they need to. Healthy kids should not have to.

 

[Birdstrike]

Our schools will be at most 50% in person. Full school is not on the table until Phase 6 (out of 6), which requires “high uptake of an effective vaccine”. Our elementary school just had a day for families to pick stuff up our kids left in their lockers. Citing “severe safety concerns”, we had to drive up, yell our kid’s name through a closed window, and pop our trunk. And despite staying in the car with windows up, we had to have masks on. We will never go back to school.

My county with 400k people has been recording single digit daily cases for the last 3 weeks. Our county has seen one death in a person under 60. We will never be able to undo what we’ve done.

To not have in person school makes no sense by any reasoning. But with numbers that low I'd be pounding on the doors of my school board, state reps, Governor and lieutenant governor to raise hell until they formulate a rational, "back to school" plan that benefits the kids. It's just insane for people to be driven by this much fear. Living life involves assuming some risk. Zero risk living isn't an option and never was!

 

[Renaissance Man]

I'm not trying to advance any agenda. I really just want to know the answer to these questions.

You're kidding, right? Literally this forum and thread is littered with you and Veers' right-wing talking points, selective interpretation of data, ignoring of basic science, and building CNN straw men arguments. You started a few months ago by claiming this would all blow over and be out of the news in a "week". You also boasted about the lack of US deaths from COVID back in February only to continuously move the goalposts as we have reached 120K+ human lives lost. All of this is done from the comfort of your computer in the Carolinas as you have never managed a COVID patient, right?

It is quite clear you have an agenda. It is ignorant and wrong, but by sheer volume of your posts and the echo chamber in here I doubt it will be changed, regardless of what happens across the country.

 

[Siggy]

You must be a total hit at parties.

I mean, I've literally gotten letters from California (when I lived in California) that my signature didn't match my original application, but it matched my most recent driver license and I've gotten a request from Florida to verify my signature now that I live in Florida. ...and this is without comitting fraud. So the notion that all one needs to do is sign an afidavit and that vote is counted is materially false. It should be called out as false as well when someone is making that claim.

 

[Siggy]

Since mid May, daily cases in Texas have quadrupled. Deaths have gone from an average range of about 30, to an average of about 30. That's 6 weeks of cases quadrupling and not any detectable increase in deaths? Thousands and thousands of extra people testing positive and not any appreciable number of them have died in 6 weeks? Even if you use 4 weeks as the beginning of the rise in cases, not any significant number have died in 4 weeks?

What happened to the "He walked in an was a little short of breath and in 2 days he was dead" COVID from April?
What about the thousands of Texas nursing home residents that are DNR/DNI?
All of a sudden COVID needs multiple months to kill them?

I'm not trying to advance any agenda. I really just want to know the answer to these questions.

View attachment 311070View attachment 311069

@Arcan57 ??

...and there are day to day variations... which is why things like 7 day trend lines are more accurate than comparing a specific day when looking at trends, I see you specially chose a high day instead of 3 days later when the daily death count was much lower. ...but hey, anything for a narrative, right?

 

[Siggy]

You're kidding, right? Literally this forum and thread is littered with you and Veers' right-wing talking points, selective interpretation of data, ignoring of basic science, and building CNN straw men arguments. You started a few months ago by claiming this would all blow over and be out of the news in a "week". You also boasted about the lack of US deaths from COVID back in February only to continuously move the goalposts as we have reached 120K+ human lives lost. All of this is done from the comfort of your computer in the Carolinas as you have never managed a COVID patient, right?

It is quite clear you have an agenda. It is ignorant and wrong, but by sheer volume of your posts and the echo chamber in here I doubt it will be changed, regardless of what happens across the country.

It's pretty obvious who has actually managed SARS-CoV-2 patients and who has simply triaged them.

 

[Rekt]

Essentially just politicians saving face. Closing schools and elective surgeries isn't going to do much but makes it seem like they're doing something to appease the incompetent vocal portion of the general public who have no understanding of virology.

 

[Rekt]

Also,

Parties — Not Protests — Are Causing Spikes In Coronavirus

Erika Lautenbach, director of the Whatcom County Health Department in Washington state, says protests against police violence aren't among the catalysts for the spread of COVID-19.

www.npr.org

Classic.

 

[Birdstrike]

You're kidding, right? Literally this forum and thread is littered with you and Veers' right-wing talking points, selective interpretation of data, ignoring of basic science, and building CNN straw men arguments. You started a few months ago by claiming this would all blow over and be out of the news in a "week". You also boasted about the lack of US deaths from COVID back in February only to continuously move the goalposts as we have reached 120K+ human lives lost. All of this is done from the comfort of your computer in the Carolinas as you have never managed a COVID patient, right?

It is quite clear you have an agenda. It is ignorant and wrong, but by sheer volume of your posts and the echo chamber in here I doubt it will be changed, regardless of what happens across the country.

Blah, blah, blah, blah blah. Everyone has an agenda. Yourself included. Get over yourself.

Why are cases surging 3-4x’s in FL/GA/TX/AZ and a month later, there’s no statistically significant increase in daily deaths? Seriously. I don’t know. I have some guesses, but I’m far from convinced of any of them.

 

[Birdstrike]

It's pretty obvious who has actually managed SARS-CoV-2 patients and who has simply triaged them.

Aw, pfft! Lmao He’s comin’ for ya, you “triage doctors.” Lmao

 

[Birdstrike]

...and there are day to day variations... which is why things like 7 day trend lines are more accurate than comparing a specific day when looking at trends, I see you specially chose a high day instead of 3 days later when the daily death count was much lower. ...but hey, anything for a narrative, right?

You didn’t read my post. I marked that for the date of the start of rise in both graphs and specifically mentioned in the post the daily average was 30, not 55. Read bro. Try it. It’s nice. You’ll like it more than toppling statues. I promise.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

So can anyone explain why kids in some states won't be back to school? In several counties in VA they announced kids won't have full time Classes in the fall.

They shut the schools down before we had epidemiological evidence. We now know that kids generally don't spread amongst each other, and it's rare for them to spread to adults. Furthermore their risk of dying from COVID is inconsequential. Is there any logical reason to keep the schools shut down other than politica/union ones?

As my wife says, because we don't care about children in this country.

My state, which has opened up more than most, still hasn't opened playgrounds. I think the only things that haven't opened are those and large sporting events/concerts. Bowling alleys and bars are open, but not freaking playgrounds.

The largest school district in the state just announced that distance learning will be an option for grades k-12 starting in August. Because we all know that a) kids learn great over a computer screen especially at young ages and b) there is no social development that goes on at school what-so-ever.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

Blah, blah, blah, blah blah. Everyone has an agenda. Yourself included. Get over yourself.

Why are cases surging 3-4x’s in FL/GA/TX/AZ and a month later, there’s no statistically significant increase in daily deaths? Seriously. I don’t know. I have some guesses, but I’m far from convinced of any of them.

We absolutely do know. The surge in numbers is being driven, at least here, by the 21-30 crowd. They now make up the largest amount of total cases.

 

[Mad Jack]

We absolutely do know. The surge in numbers is being driven, at least here, by the 21-30 crowd. They now make up the largest amount of total cases.

Young people doing dumb things because they think that they're invincible is basically the gist of it. They seem to care little for the people they might spread the virus to

 

[Birdstrike]

My state, which has opened up more than most, still hasn't opened playgrounds.

They're open where I'm at, dude, w i d e open; playgrounds, water parks, bouncy house places, roller rinks, the whole 9 yards. Must be a local restriction by your mayor. But then again, where I live is the Wild West.

The largest school district in the state just announced that distance learning will be an option for grades k-12 starting in August. Because we all know that a) kids learn great over a computer screen especially at young ages and b) there is no social development that goes on at school what-so-ever.

I agree out kids need to be in school for school. I don't have a problem if they have distance learning as an option for the people that can't be pried away from their fear or inability to understand relative risk (RR of death from COVID<influenza, for school aged children). If we don't at least given them this option for themselves, their panic could end up dragging us all back to all online school, since these are the loudest Karens off all. Let them keep their kids at home while they scream at them all day to eat kale with their ice cream and facebook rage about how they're not going to take the COVID vaccine when it comes out, "Cuz mercury or something."

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

They're open where I'm at, dude, w i d e open; playgrounds, water parks, bouncy house places, roller rinks, the whole 9 yards. Must be a local restriction by your mayor. But then again, where I live is the Wild West.


I agree out kids need to be in school for school. I don't have a problem if they have distance learning as an option for the people that can't be pried away from their fear or inability to understand relative risk (RR of death from COVID<influenza, for school aged children). If we don't at least given them this option for themselves, their panic could end up dragging us all back to all online school, since these are the loudest Karens off all. Let them keep their kids at home while they scream at them all day to eat kale with their ice cream and facebook rage about how they're not going to take the COVID vaccine when it comes out, "Cuz mercury or something."

Might be a public v. Private thing. I'm at HH and lots of playgrounds are open, but they're all privately owned.

 

[MHYDE]

I agree out kids need to be in school for school. I don't have a problem if they have distance learning as an option for the people that can't be pried away from their fear or inability to understand relative risk (RR of death from COVID<influenza, for school aged children). If we don't at least given them this option for themselves, their panic could end up dragging us all back to all online school, since these are the loudest Karens off all. Let them keep their kids at home while they scream at them all day to eat kale with their ice cream and facebook rage about how they're not going to take the COVID vaccine when it comes out, "Cuz mercury or something."

This is the new battleground. I keep hearing that the biggest impediments to schools reopening are parents and teachers. I really don't think parents are the impediment. Sure, there are parents who will never let their kids out of the house again, because they're afraid. In other times that would be considered child abuse, but these parents have obeyed the message (Stay Home, Stay Safe), so they can hardly be blamed. But as long as we have the option to send our kids back, I imagine the majority of parents will. The others can keep their kids home forever. By day 8 of their kid watching a livestream on a computer of all their friends back in school, many could change their tune.

Teachers/staff are the real issue. They have a valid concern for their safety, especially if they are older or compromised in some way. They are much more likely to catch the virus from a colleague than a child, though, so our focus in opening schools should be on masking and social distancing for staff, with less focus on the kids, right? It's a lot easier to keep the teachers socially distanced from each other than it is to expect a teacher to enforce a 6-foot distance and universal masking in a room full of 8-year-olds. While also teaching?

Toronto's Sick Kids, hardly a fringe organization, gets it. I've reached out to nearly every children's hospital in the US, as well as the AAP, to see if they would consider issuing similar guidance to help schools get back on track. No takers so far.

 

[Birdstrike]

Might be a public v. Private thing. I'm at HH and lots of playgrounds are open, but they're all privately owned.

Ahh...Got it.

 

[Birdstrike]

Teachers/staff are the real issue. They have a valid concern for their safety, especially if they are older or compromised in some way.

Of course. The high-risk teachers that want to do online school, can do online teaching. The parents that want their kids to do online school can do online school. My kids need in person teaching and even more than that, need the socialization. They're very low risk for serious COVID-19. There are lots of teachers with low risk profiles that I'm sure would be happy to continue in person teaching. Have everyone that's able wear masks, intense sanitation, mandatory consequence-free sick-quarantine time, etc. Totally fine. I agree totally.

I feel that my kids deserve to grow up living a normal life with normal opportunities, like I did. As someone middle aged, I'm willing to take the risk, (albeit very low risk) of getting serious COVID disease, so my kids can have a normal life with all the opportunities I had. I don't want them to grow up fearful hermits, so I can get my 0.02% risk of dying of COVID down to 0.01%.

 

[MHYDE]

Of course. The high-risk teachers that want to do online school, can do online teaching. The parents that want their kids to do online school can do online school. My kids need in person teaching and even more than that, need the socialization. They're very low risk for serious COVID-19. There are lots of teachers with low risk profiles that I'm sure would be happy to continue in person teaching. Have everyone that's able wear masks, intense sanitation, mandatory consequence-free sick-quarantine time, etc. Totally fine. I agree totally.

Can we say that schools are essential? Like hardware stores and meatpacking plants?

 

[Birdstrike]

Can we say that schools are essential? Like hardware stores and meatpacking plants?

Yes! They are!

 

[MHYDE]

Yes! They are!

Yeah my question was tongue-in-cheek. I agree. This fall is shaping up to be a disaster in many states and school districts, mine included.

 

[Birdstrike]

Yeah my question was tongue-in-cheek. I agree. This fall is shaping up to be a disaster in many states and school districts, mine included.

Demand in person school. We are.

Are colleges planning in person classes in the Fall where you're at?

 

[deleted1005514]

Demand in person school. We are.

Are colleges planning in person classes in the Fall where you're at?

In VA they are, including publishing full sports schedules despite the fact that they have no idea what the "rules" will be by then.

If colleges can return to full in person classes, why can't K-12, especially in areas where the infection rates have been extremely low (looking at you, rural Virginia).

 

[miacomet]

My guess is much of the resistance to reopening schools are liability related regarding staff. If I were a teacher with any sort of chronic health issue or over the age of fifty I certainly would not be interested in returning to work for the princely sum of a teacher's salary.

How, @Birdstrike would you solve reluctance on the part of teachers and staff, especially in low-paying regions, such as yours?

 

[Siggy]

Aw, pfft! Lmao He’s comin’ for ya, you “triage doctors.” Lmao

I mean... the patient isn't going to be in the ED for 2 weeks on a vent, right?

How many patients are registered for the plasma trial in the ED?

How many EDs are starting steroids for COVID?

Let's be clear... there's not exactly a lot of ED management here.

 

[miacomet]

Also, I think it's really funny how little Americans can handle having their kids at home. Folks I know in Italy really enjoyed time home with the kids, even if they are eager for the educational and social opportunities provided by school. Maybe this will cause some introspection among Americans as to raising more pleasant children instead of a nation of Veruca Salts.

 

[Birdstrike]

In VA they are, including publishing full sports schedules despite the fact that they have no idea what the "rules" will be by then.

If colleges can return to full in person classes, why can't K-12, especially in areas where the infection rates have been extremely low (looking at you, rural Virginia).

In my state, most colleges have announced they're returning in person, with most saying masks are required indoors and outdoors if in close contact. I think that's completely reasonable. But you are absolutely right to conclude that if young adults, who are low risk for COVID, can go back to in person schooling, why shouldn't young children, who are even lower risk, in fact near zero risk, go back to school?

Answer: They can. And should!

 

[miacomet]

It's. Because. Of. Staff. Concerns. Not because of the children.
Also, my guess is colleges aren't actually returning.

 

[deleted1005514]

Also, I think it's really funny how little Americans can handle having their kids at home. Folks I know in Italy really enjoyed time home with the kids, even if they are eager for the educational and social opportunities provided by school. Maybe this will cause some introspection among Americans as to raising more pleasant children instead of a nation of Veruca Salts.

It's not about not being able to have your kids at home for everyone. I have kids in high school and upper middle school that need to be getting a quality education to prepare for standardized testing and college applications. They're in advanced classes that I can't teach (I never took calculus), and orchestra classes that require hours of work each week and I have no knowledge of their needs for those classes, because I played different instruments.

I loved having my kids home in the beginning, because they are super busy and I feel like we don't get enough time together. When I could see that they really wanted to be back in their classes, with their teachers and friends, practicing music with their groups, I realized how much they needed school, no matter how great extra family time is.

 

[miacomet]

The Sick Kids statement notes that discussion of staff issues and concerns is beyond the scope of the document. Staff concerns are the main issue; why aren't districts addressing this?

 

[deleted1005514]

It's. Because. Of. Staff. Concerns. Not because of the children.
Also, my guess is colleges aren't actually returning.

If it really is staff concerns, why are most school districts implementing 2-3 day a week school programs? These same staff members will be at the schools all day every day, just with different groups of students on alternating days. The inconsistency of in person vs online education is a bad idea in my opinion.

 

[Birdstrike]

My guess is much of the resistance to reopening schools are liability related regarding staff. If I were a teacher with any sort of chronic health issue or over the age of fifty I certainly would not be interested in returning to work for the princely sum of a teacher's salary.

I think the liability argument is weak sauce. COVID is everywhere. You can get it while working at a school. You can get it from the carryout guy bringing your food because your school shut down and made you stay home. You could also die in a car accident driving to work, or be assaulted by a student. Because some skeezy lawyer tries to make a case about that, I don't think it means my kids get screwed out of school. Online school sucks and my kids learned much less than normal.

How, @Birdstrike would you solve reluctance on the part of teachers and staff, especially in low-paying regions, such as yours?

Like I said in an above post, set up an alternative pathway for fearful teachers to online teach children of fearful but near-zero risk children. Then, when the home-teaching teachers get COVID from the amazon delivery guy they started utilizing while quarantining, call that "1-800-You-made-me-get-COVID" lawyer friend of yours.

 

[Siggy]

You didn’t read my post. I marked that for the date of the start of rise in both graphs and specifically mentioned in the post the daily average was 30, not 55. Read bro. Try it. It’s nice. You’ll like it more than toppling statues. I promise.

Here we go... Texas with 7 day trend lines. Initial uptick in cases around May 27th. Initial uptake in deaths around June 13th.

Most recent uptick on June 16th.

Now I'll ask the question... how long are your COVID patients lasting in the ICU prior to them dying? That may have something to do with why we haven't seen a rise in deaths yet.

 

[Birdstrike]

Also, I think it's really funny how little Americans can handle having their kids at home.

My kids are well behaved and we have no problems having them around. They're awesome.

Folks I know in Italy really enjoyed time home with the kids, even if they are eager for the educational and social opportunities provided by school.

The problem with that is there are no social opportunities provided by schools that have caved in to COVID fear. They don't ban school then allow your kids to gather in groups to be social and do sports. I can tell you don't have kids, because if you did, you'd know that you can't totally ---k over their social development like it's nothing. It's super important. My kids are smart. They're going to kick butt academically no matter what crappy educational system you force them to navigate. But they deserve better than that and they need to be kids. Spending their whole upbringing in bed with their chrome book IS NOT GOOD FOR THEM. I literally ****s them up, to have no school friend life, no sports, no activities, nothing for months or possibly years on end. It's the same as forcing you to not work, see friends, get a paycheck or do all the thing you need to do as a normal adult for months or years at a time, with no plan to let you out of the prison.

Maybe this will cause some introspection among Americans as to raising more pleasant children instead of a nation of Veruca Salts.

Don't get your hopes up.

 

[Birdstrike]

If it really is staff concerns, why are most school districts implementing 2-3 day a week school programs? These same staff members will be at the schools all day every day, just with different groups of students on alternating days.

I agree. It makes no sense!

 

[Birdstrike]

Also, my guess is colleges aren't actually returning.

In many states, including mine, colleges are returning.

And yes, we know it's because of "staff concerns." But states have mostly (all?) ended their stay at home orders. But suddenly school teachers are at risk of dying from being at work and no one else is?

Uh.. No. There's no justification for teachers not having to work despite COVID existing yet everyone else is back to working despite COVID existing.

 

[Birdstrike]

It's not about not being able to have your kids at home for everyone. I have kids in high school and upper middle school that need to be getting a quality education to prepare for standardized testing and college applications. They're in advanced classes that I can't teach (I never took calculus), and orchestra classes that require hours of work each week and I have no knowledge of their needs for those classes, because I played different instruments.

I loved having my kids home in the beginning, because they are super busy and I feel like we don't get enough time together. When I could see that they really wanted to be back in their classes, with their teachers and friends, practicing music with their groups, I realized how much they needed school, no matter how great extra family time is.

Yes!

"Everyone can go back to work and wear a mask. Just not teachers. They're special."

 

[Birdstrike]

how long are your COVID patients lasting in the ICU prior to them dying?

I don't work in an ICU. I'd like to know what the delay is. But, I. Don't. Know. The. Answer.

Tell me. What is this, a frickin' game of cat and mouse? If you know what the average time delay from diagnosis to death is, and most importantly the range, say it. Otherwise I'm not going to waste my time responding to you anymore and I'm putting you on ignore again.

 

[MHYDE]

I agree it's a staff question, not kids. But please tell my school board, who has said in every missive they send that these measures are to protect "your child's safety". The same reason camp was canceled. At least be honest with us.

Yes, I've written letters to the school board. I've gone to the (virtual) meetings. I've written letters to my elected representatives, to children's hospitals, to the AAP. People are scared to leave their homes! My daughter's friends still can't go on a walk with her. Even the few who thawed said they can't see her now since she went to Ohio to visit her cousins. As my daughter asked, understandably, "if my friend can't hang out with me because I was with other kids, how is she going to go back to school?" SHE'S NOT.

 

[turkeyjerky]

I’ve changed my thinking on school closures, fwiw. In March I thought it was an obvious move and necessary (not to save the children, but to decrease the rate of transmission). Now, it really does strike me that children seem to not be a major driver. The kowasaki like syndrome will be a driver of panic, but rational people should be able to look at the rates if that and agree it’s too rare to make major policy decisions over.

 

[alpinism]

Houston is apparently going to go back to lockdown and issue stay at home orders today.

 

[Siggy]

I don't work in an ICU. I'd like to know what the delay is. But, I. Don't. Know. The. Answer.

Tell me. What is this, a frickin' game of cat and mouse? If you know what the average time delay from diagnosis to death is, and most importantly the range, say it. Otherwise I'm not going to waste my time responding to you anymore and I'm putting you on ignore again.

Because I've said it before.... about 2 weeks.

How long should the lock down last?

Hawaii has been doing pretty well. The lt governor is a practicing ER doctor. They've used basic epidemiological work to keep things under control. If Hawaii is doing such great job epidemiologically, whis is their rate of spread and contagiousness of COVID-19 the highest in the country right...

forums.studentdoctor.net

...but if you're not going to actually read posts and just complain about how terrible it is that we're trying to prevent people getting sick with simple things like masks and test and trace (because Germany and South Korea are better than the US... because "muh freedoms"). However good idea... I won't have to teach you basic statistics anymore.

 

[xaelia]

Tell me. What is this, a frickin' game of cat and mouse? If you know what the average time delay from diagnosis to death is, and most importantly the range, say it.

Patients who worsen typically develop moderate or severe symptoms somewhere between 5 and 15 days after onset of symptoms, which is a pretty wide range since we rely upon patients to self-report. After that, ~70% remain hospitalized a week later. At two weeks, about 30% remain hospitalized (60% have recovered, 10% have died) – and these are contemporary data from remdesivir trials. This remaining 30% who *still* haven't recovered at two weeks are about half ICU (high-flow, ventilation, ECMO). So, about half the deaths might be about 2-3 weeks after the onset of symptoms, and the other half are later.

I'm gonna say 2-6 weeks from onset of symptoms, with deaths fairly evenly distributed across that timeframe.

So, I'd say, once hospitalizations tick up reliably, maybe 2-3 weeks later that 7-day moving average for deaths will reliably be ticking up. Looking at the TMC med/surg data, they exceeded their baseline/peak from April around 6/6, so this next week ought to be about when we start seeing increased deaths.

We're also, unfortunately, probably looking at a NYC-style all-cause mortality increase – exceeding ICU beds due to COVID means fewer beds for everything else. We all know how important a specialty center is for those rural hospitals to get tough vascular, neuro, etc. cases out the door. This is a whole-state problem, not just a Houston problem.