How long should the lock down last?

This forum made possible through the generous support of SDN members, donors, and sponsors. Thank you.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Oh, did North Korea open their border along the DMZ and I didn't notice?

There is no COVID in North Korea.

Members don't see this ad.
 
  • Like
  • Haha
Reactions: 2 users
Members don't see this ad :)
We should have used North Korea's "Testing and Contact Tracing" protocol. If you have symptoms of COVID, they track you down, you disappear and go to "Glorious People's America Virus Work Camp Fun Place".
 
We should have used North Korea's "Testing and Contact Tracing" protocol. If you have symptoms of COVID, they track you down, you disappear and go to "Glorious People's America Virus Work Camp Fun Place".
I've been there. They consider you a God.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
“Where are the deaths”

Fox News was on in the break room and as soon as I walked in, the first thing I hear is Laura Ingraham saying "Where are the deaths?". Meanwhile 80% of my ER is currently COVID, we have 15 patients in the ICU on ECMO for COVID, and currently have COVID+ patients packed in together in our waiting room with the small percentage that are there for something other than COVID.
 
  • Okay...
Reactions: 1 user
Fox News was on in the break room and as soon as I walked in, the first thing I hear is Laura Ingraham saying "Where are the deaths?". Meanwhile 80% of my ER is currently COVID, we have 15 patients in the ICU on ECMO for COVID, and currently have COVID+ patients packed in together in our waiting room with the small percentage that are there for something other than COVID.

Do you have enough PPE @Zebra Hunter? What part of the country are you in?
 
“Where are the deaths”


Ugh it’s so depressing seeing what happened to us in the epicenter 2 months ago now happening again in other places. I def think are death numbers were higher for sure but not officially counted. I remember one of my patients who is EMS talking about 1 horrible day when it was like 10/12 calls were already dead.

Also outside of the trauma for patients the trauma that medical professionals are dealing with as well.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
What kind of respirator?
Pence is going to recommend reusing PPE; not sure whether that is just masks, or what. I really would feel uncomfortable reusing gloves.
 
Members don't see this ad :)
What kind of respirator?
Pence is going to recommend reusing PPE; not sure whether that is just masks, or what. I really would feel uncomfortable reusing gloves.
P100 3M half-face respirator. Way more comfortable than my hospital's N95, and has a much better fit
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
“Where are the deaths”


Sure, some are probably COVID, or it's people avoiding the hospital due to COVID and dying from other causes that still exist, but that headline isn't as sexy.

For the first example it sounds like she probably had a primary cardiac arrhythmia and she happens to be COVID positive. Just because someone post-humously is COVID positive doesn't mean that's why they died.
 
Sure, some are probably COVID, or it's people avoiding the hospital due to COVID and dying from other causes that still exist, but that headline isn't as sexy.

For the first example it sounds like she probably had a primary cardiac arrhythmia and she happens to be COVID positive. Just because someone post-humously is COVID positive doesn't mean that's why they died.

Note the example doesn't say "she was COVID+", it states autopsy determined the cause of death was COVID. It is a less likely explanation a medical examiner conflates cause of death with incidental COVID+ status.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 users
And how so? What evidence did the article or examiner suggest? He likely said she was COVID positive to the news agency and they took it as that's why she died. I see COVID every day and have been since march and syncope is not a presentation.

COVID19 has a very characteristic and uncommon pattern of lung injury, sometimes referred to as "dry ARDS". This can be unambiguously identified on autopsy.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
COVID19 has a very characteristic and uncommon pattern of lung injury, sometimes referred to as "dry ARDS". This can be unambiguously identified on autopsy.

Misread and thought she was asymptomatic. But the doc she saw definitely goofed not sending her to the ED with dyspnea and CP.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
Apparently @GeneralVeers isn't losing hope (or seeing many Covid patients), but others are: Texas and Arizona ER doctors say they are losing hope as hospitals reach capacity

Saw a lot of COVID this week and admitted a few. There are definitely more cases, but it's expected after re-opening. Again the goal of lockdown wasn't to prevent infections. Anecdotally they are younger, and appear less sick than back in April.

ICU is full at my hospital today...….however that was normal in pre-COVID times, as was holding patients in the ED. So nothing new on that front.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
Saw a lot of COVID this week and admitted a few. There are definitely more cases, but it's expected after re-opening. Again the goal of lockdown wasn't to prevent infections. Anecdotally they are younger, and appear less sick than back in April.

ICU is full at my hospital today...….however that was normal in pre-COVID times, as was holding patients in the ED. So nothing new on that front.

Exactly. All this does is bring how poorly staffed/bedded healthcare is in general (because admins want more money, not because of supply like they falsely say). My ICU was nearly almost always full. We often went on diversion/turning away transfers. All precovid. Now it's just extra full but the media gets clicks from it.
 
Vanderbilt School of Medicine model for Tennessee, dated April 10.


"Lifting social distancing scenario: Under this scenario ... at the peak, close to 50,000 Tennesseans are sick enough to require hospitalization."


You may notice in that chart that the lines start to diverge right around the end of April.

Tennessee's stay-at-home order on April 30 was lifted. A close match to when VUMC's model changed its assumption of behavior.


So, did TN get to 50,000 hospitalizations at peak?


No. In fact, TN didn't even get to the 2,000 peak hospitalizations under the assumption that the state locked down even harder. The opposite of what they did.

Wow -another BIG WIN for epidemiological modeling: An over prediction by a factor of 25.

Millions of jobs and livelihoods, not to mention excess non-covid deaths due to shutdowns, were lost to this nonsense.

To play devils advocate (as well as make a legit point), where is your evidence the lockdown caused the economic damage of job loss? As mentioned above, Sweden (which remained open) lost just as many jobs as its neighbors that shut down, and has been just as slow or slower to recover. I haven't seen any convincing data from the US that states that shut down earlier or harder had worse economic outcomes outside of NYC which was devestated by the virus. Obviously there were and are jobs that specifically would have been saved were a lockdown not in effect, but the general point is that the economic damage is primarily from COVID itself (and its coverage/effects on public behavior and psyche), not government action.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 users
To play devils advocate (as well as make a legit point), where is your evidence the lockdown caused the economic damage of job loss? As mentioned above, Sweden (which remained open) lost just as many jobs as its neighbors that shut down, and has been just as slow or slower to recover. I haven't seen any convincing data from the US that states that shut down earlier or harder had worse economic outcomes outside of NYC which was devestated by the virus. Obviously there were and are jobs that specifically would have been saved were a lockdown not in effect, but the general point is that the economic damage is primarily from COVID itself (and its coverage/effects on public behavior and psyche), not government action.

The states in the U.S. which didn't shut down have on average 6-10% less unemployment than the states which did.


Granted their data was for May, but I don't have anything more current.
 
The states in the U.S. which didn't shut down have on average 6-10% less unemployment than the states which did.


Granted their data was for May, but I don't have anything more current.

Interesting. Worth noting the AIER is a conservative institute that aims " to promote individual sovereignty, limited government, and "a society based on property rights and open markets " and is thus quite anti-lockdown, though that doesn't invalidate the date (assuming accuracy given the source).

A five thirty eight article noted that unemployment (and likely lockdown effect) also correlated with number of covid cases. So part of the effect could be that states with less or shorter lockdown had fewer cases (which also makes sense why lockdown would be lifted faster). Many of those same states are getting hit hard now, so it will be telling what happens in the next few months.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
To play devils advocate (as well as make a legit point), where is your evidence the lockdown caused the economic damage of job loss? As mentioned above, Sweden (which remained open) lost just as many jobs as its neighbors that shut down, and has been just as slow or slower to recover. I haven't seen any convincing data from the US that states that shut down earlier or harder had worse economic outcomes outside of NYC which was devestated by the virus. Obviously there were and are jobs that specifically would have been saved were a lockdown not in effect, but the general point is that the economic damage is primarily from COVID itself (and its coverage/effects on public behavior and psyche), not government action.


The national jobless rate was 13.3% in May, but 10 states still have unemployment rates above 15%. From highest down, they are: Nevada (25.3%), Hawaii (22.6%), Michigan (21.2%), California, Rhode Island and Massachusetts (16.3%), Delaware (15.8%), Illinois and New Jersey (15.2%), and Washington state (15.1%).

The Nevada and Hawaii economies rely heavily on tourism that has been walloped by the pandemic. But all of these 10 states have had some of the strictest lockdowns. The Michigan rate is especially striking compared to the lower rates in Wisconsin (12%) and Indiana (12.3%, down from 17.5% in a month). New York, the state hit hardest by the virus, had a jobless rate of 14.5% in May, down somewhat from 15.3% a month earlier.
Nine of the 10 states with the highest jobless rate are run by Democrats, who have tended to demand that the economy should stay locked down and in some cases are still resisting opening. One exception is Colorado, where Democratic Gov. Jared Polis was one of the first to reopen. His decision is paying off as Colorado’s jobless rate in May fell to 10.2% from 12.2% in April.
Other states well below the national rate include Georgia (9.7%), Arkansas (9.5%), Arizona (8.9%), Utah (8.5%), and Nebraska (the lowest rate in the country at 5.2%). These tend to be states that resisted total lockdowns or reopened sooner.

 
Interesting. Worth noting the AIER is a conservative institute that aims " to promote individual sovereignty, limited government, and "a society based on property rights and open markets " and is thus quite anti-lockdown, though that doesn't invalidate the date (assuming accuracy given the source).

They are pro-capitalism and individual freedom (shameful, I know!). I think they actually do a lot of real statistical analyses in their articles which most commentary sites don't bother with.
 
All the places getting hammered currently will be like NYC is now in a month’s time. NYC has likely achieved herd immunity (or is close to it). Their new cases went from a peak of 10,000 per day (likely a huge undercount due to inadequate testing and asymptomatic carriers) to roughly 500 a day currently.

 
Last edited:
All the places getting hammered currently will be like NYC is now in a month’s time. NYC has likely achieved herd immunity (or is close to it)

Time will tell. NYC is having a phased, gradual re-opening. We will see how quickly infection rates climb there as they begin to open things up.
 
All the places getting hammered currently will be like NYC is now in a month’s time. NYC has likely achieved herd immunity (or is close to it). Their new cases went from a peak of 10,000 per day (likely a huge undercount due to inadequate testing and asymptomatic carriers) to roughly 500 a day currently.


Herd immunity? That is not what this article is saying at all; can you please explain where the evidence is for herd immunity? Thank you.
 
Herd immunity? That is not what this article is saying at all; can you please explain where the evidence is for herd immunity? Thank you.

I didn’t read the article, it just served as a source of reported daily cases in NYC. I generated a hypothesis based on that data that may very well be wrong, we’ll see.

The problem with antibody testing is that a lot of people that were infected are no longer making antibodies. T cell mediated immunity is much more difficult and costly to test for and likely played in huge role in people not developing symptoms.

The virus is running out of carriers, hence the trend of decreasing cases. Now if NYC opens back up and all hell breaks loose, I’ll come back for my slice of humble pie.
 
Last edited:
All the places getting hammered currently will be like NYC is now in a month’s time.

Precisely. If we were testing in Feb the way we are testing now, we would have very high case counts and few hospitalizations, and everybody would be like "where are the deaths?" They came, and came in a big way. Deaths will really lag now by weeks because we can keep people alive on the vent for 3-4 weeks, perhaps even longer because of how much more we know about the disease.

NYC has likely achieved herd immunity (or is close to it). Their new cases went from a peak of 10,000 per day (likely a huge undercount due to inadequate testing and asymptomatic carriers) to roughly 500 a day currently.


That doesn't make sense. Case counts are not low due to herd immunity. The city is still a shell of it's former self. About 1M people left the tri-state area in April / May.


However...maybe you meant to post this article.

68% Have Antibodies in This Clinic. Can Neighborhood Beat a Next Wave?

I'm not surprised by this article....I'm sure there are select neighborhoods where most people have already gotten the virus.



Dammit...I posted on this once-useful but now circle-jerk thread again. I need to stop.
 
  • Haha
  • Like
Reactions: 2 users
Dammit...I posted on this once-useful but now circle-jerk thread again. I need to stop.
I wouldn’t be surprised if circle-jerks are offended by being compared to this thread.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users
I wouldn’t be surprised if circle-jerks are offended by being compared to this thread.

There is j^#zzum being sprayed all over this thread, left and right. Gobs flying around at times. It's really disgusting. I'm staying far away despite my desire to respond to about 50% of what's being written.

Edit: It's misinformed j^#zzum actually. That's the worse kind.
 
Last edited:
  • Haha
Reactions: 2 users
Well, here might be your new deaths.

It's only two data points and it doesn't make a trend. Only time will tell.

US Covid deaths 7-9-2020.jpg
 
Well, here might be your new deaths.

It's only two data points and it doesn't make a trend. Only time will tell.

View attachment 312367

I saw this too. I absolutely expect more death since re-opening. We flattened the curve initially, and hopefully the second wave won't be as bad. It's also going to occur in states with much more hospital capacity than NYC.

I really don't think we can prevent many deaths, but we can certainly manage them.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
I saw this too. I absolutely expect more death since re-opening. We flattened the curve initially, and hopefully the second wave won't be as bad. It's also going to occur in states with much more hospital capacity than NYC.

I really don't think we can prevent many deaths, but we can certainly manage them.

I agree - we all need to remember that flattening the curve doesn't prevent deaths from COVID19 in high risk populations. We have always been aiming to reduce preventable deaths caused by an overwhelmed system. Unrealistic goals are just that, unrealistic.

I think @thegenius was addressing something else - The Mystery of the Missing Deaths. Time will tell if he's found them.
Conversely, the New Daily Death graph could just keep going down and down.
Let's all keep watching.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users
I saw this too. I absolutely expect more death since re-opening. We flattened the curve initially, and hopefully the second wave won't be as bad. It's also going to occur in states with much more hospital capacity than NYC.

I really don't think we can prevent many deaths, but we can certainly manage them.

NYC is almost perfectly average in terms of hospital beds in the US, with about 1/400 residents.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
I saw this too. I absolutely expect more death since re-opening. We flattened the curve initially, and hopefully the second wave won't be as bad. It's also going to occur in states with much more hospital capacity than NYC.

I really don't think we can prevent many deaths, but we can certainly manage them.

You don't think New Zealand, Germany, and Canada have prevented deaths?
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
Now more of a spray. But this isn't a misinformed spray, the bad kind of spray.

My main problem with the last 20 pages of this now major circle-jerking thread. There are a select number of people who regularly post about numerous lame policies like wearing masks and following general public guidelines about keeping distanced. These people say the virus is lame, it's not dangerous, "oohhhh where's the death???", "0.5% oohhh....0.1% ooohhhh scary", there are too many people who are over-reacting to this, we should have never shutdown ever...our freedom is paramount no matter what, I don't care about by neighbors, and other stupid nonsense stuff. These things are either said or implied.

I hope to god we have markedly increased economic output compared to other countries during this time of not taking this virus seriously. Because if we don't and our economic depression is on par with other countries around the world, who have seeming contained the spread the virus (not contain and not eliminate) then this country will have needlessly killed tens of thousands of people.

All the major countries who have had the first wave handled it; got hit on the chin, and have now learned about how to control spread. They are all opening up their economies at different rates. People are out and about. They are getting back to work. They are playing professional sports. And they have very few people both catching the disease and dying there. There is for the most part general public buy in on how to minimize the viral spread.

'Merica can be like this, but we choose not to because we are stubborn and petulant. All I want is for 'Merica to have proportional daily new cases like these other, comparable countries. We can achieve it. We can have people go back to work and control the spread of the virus. We are never going to get rid of it in the foreseeable future. We have to learn to live with the virus.

China Daily New Cases 7-9-2020.jpg
Italy Daily New Cases 7-9-2020.jpg
S Korea Daily New Cases 7-9-2020.jpg

Netherlands Daily New Cases 7-9-2020.jpg
Belgium Daily New Cases 7-9-2020.jpg
Spain Daily New Cases 7-9-2020.jpg

France Daily New Cases 7-9-2020.jpg
UK Daily New Cases 7-9-2020.jpg
Germany Daily New Cases 7-9-2020.jpg








and now 'Merica


USA Daily New Cases 7-9-2020.jpg




giphy.gif
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
You don't think New Zealand, Germany, and Canada have prevented deaths?

Canada has 8700 deaths. Population-adjusted they would have about 90,000 deaths if they were the same size as the U.S. Our big problem was NYC. Remove NYC (and its disastrous nursing home policy) and our numbers aren't worse than any other western country.

New Zealand probably did, but only by completely closing their borders to prevent the virus from entering in significant amounts. They can do this. We can't.

Germany did the smart thing and locked down nursing homes early and prevented staff from leaving. Neither us, nor Sweden did that which accounted for 50%+ of our deaths.
 
Just a dizzle......
This thread is XXX hardcore, not for wimps. The climax will be when certain people cheer the increased deaths they’ve been hoping for like kids waiting for Santa, so they can win an SDN thread. Wait for it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
Perhaps...but first they have to wade out of the pool of spooge and other fetid filth. It's disgusting in here. Santa ain't coming. The Easter Bunny and Groundhog are staying away.

I opened the door again last night and got hit right on my forehead and have already vomited. I'm leaving again. I need to set up a megaphone and yell into this place from across the street.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: 1 user
Canada has 8700 deaths. Population-adjusted they would have about 90,000 deaths if they were the same size as the U.S. Our big problem was NYC. Remove NYC (and its disastrous nursing home policy) and our numbers aren't worse than any other western country.

New Zealand probably did, but only by completely closing their borders to prevent the virus from entering in significant amounts. They can do this. We can't.

Germany did the smart thing and locked down nursing homes early and prevented staff from leaving. Neither us, nor Sweden did that which accounted for 50%+ of our deaths.

You don't think Arizona, Florida, and Texas will face the same issues as New York? Arizona and Florida have plenty of nursing homes which may or may not have adequate PPE and protocols. The virus is still peaking there, no? Canada also had a disastrous nursing home policy, but still has done better, no?

Why do you think the West in general has had higher fatalities, and do you think it could have been prevented?
 
You don't think Arizona, Florida, and Texas will face the same issues as New York? Arizona and Florida have plenty of nursing homes which may or may not have adequate PPE and protocols. The virus is still peaking there, no? Canada also had a disastrous nursing home policy, but still has done better, no?

Why do you think the West in general has had higher fatalities, and do you think it could have been prevented?

I'm just hoping none of them forces nursing homes to take in covid patients.

And hopefully, steroids, remdesivir and other drugs showing positive signs are heavily utilized.
 
I'm just hoping none of them forces nursing homes to take in covid patients.

And hopefully, steroids, remdesivir and other drugs showing positive signs are heavily utilized.

I thought most hospitals were out of remdesivir.
Agreed NSHs should not take Covid patients. But my guess is those nursing homes are already full of Covid.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top