How long should the lock down last?

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AMEHigh said:
Yep.
I mean to be honest though I do see trump as a horrible person lol.
He just decided to wear a mask today. Why wasn't he wearing a mask from the beginning?
Have you seen some of his quotes? Did you watch his press conferences in the beginning? I remember he talked about making the biggest and best website so everyone could get testing, lol. And now more recently he's talked about we're testing too much and that's what's causing the increase cases.

It's just very very frustrating that the federal government's response has been pathetic causing even more unnecessary harm and I think that set a precedent for how the rest of the country responded. There's certainly a middle ground between throwing people in jail for leaving their house and opening up Disneyworld. It seems we have no leadership at the federal level to help us find that middle ground. He's threatened that schools need to open, yet they don't even have money for paper let alone hand sanitizer and teachers are rightfully scared to go back in a classroom with 30 unmasked 15 year olds.

Yes we have high rates of obesity, but there's no reason that things couldn't be on a better trajectory here like they are in other countries, since apparently america is the best country in the world.

There's no reason that this whole mess needed to be political with essentially people on the right calling this a hoax and yelling about their freedom. This country could've responded with better leadership, guidance and assistance.
Click to expand...

agreed, on all counts
 
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GeneralVeers said:
>

Even if Trump is horrible, what's the alternative? A world run by antifa, anarchists and marxists?
Click to expand...

A start would be a government run by people who believe that we should have a government, as opposed to people like Rick Perry who was appointed to run an agency that he said he intended to shut down, but then couldn't remember the name of.
 
La Cumbre Lines said:
La Cumbre in Spanish means the summit. I love mountains and spend a lot of time on them. It is also an excellent brewery. Try Elevated IPA if you ever get the chance.

Lines is twofold. I like placing lines. Arterial more than central. I like procedures a lot, but lines might be one of the few procedures I still enjoy. More philosophically and the real meaning to me, it stands for the line you take on a mountain, which to me correlates to the line or path we take in life. Partially inspired by the 2015 version of the movie Point Break that I watched at the time I made the account name.

“There are some that do not fear death for they are more afraid of not really living.” - Ancient Proverb
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I wondered if you were referencing that brewery - I was one of their first customers!
 
An interesting analysis of the pandemic depending on varying degrees of immunity. Essentially if we have complete immunity, we are good and will reach herd immunity long before a vaccine. They hypothesized, however that this virus will exhibit "waning immunity" which goes away after 45 weeks, meaning that the virus is going to persist at a low level in the community forever. Which basically means we are done as a civilization:

What to do if COVID-19 is here to stay

We do not yet know whether individuals who recover from COVID-19 can be reinfected. If immunity wanes, the disease will become endemic, in sharp contrast to a model in which recovery confers permanent immunity. This column considers the possibility that immunity is indeed only temporary, and...
voxeu.org voxeu.org
 
GeneralVeers said:
An interesting analysis of the pandemic depending on varying degrees of immunity. Essentially if we have complete immunity, we are good and will reach herd immunity long before a vaccine. They hypothesized, however that this virus will exhibit "waning immunity" which goes away after 45 weeks, meaning that the virus is going to persist at a low level in the community forever. Which basically means we are done as a civilization:

What to do if COVID-19 is here to stay

We do not yet know whether individuals who recover from COVID-19 can be reinfected. If immunity wanes, the disease will become endemic, in sharp contrast to a model in which recovery confers permanent immunity. This column considers the possibility that immunity is indeed only temporary, and...
voxeu.org voxeu.org
Click to expand...
I would tweek this slightly by saying, if COVID stays around we won't necessarily be "done" as a civilization, but we'll certainly lose a lot of people in the high risk categories. I'm optimistic we'll get a vaccine that either gives long term antibody and/or t-cell immunity, or a vaccine that gives immunity long enough for us to formulate new and improved versions. Combine that with new drugs and other treatment advancements, and civilization will continue.
 
Birdstrike said:
I would tweek this slightly by saying, if COVID stays around we won't necessarily be "done" as a civilization, but we'll certainly lose a lot of people in the high risk categories. I'm optimistic we'll get a vaccine that either gives long term antibody and/or t-cell immunity, or a vaccine that gives immunity long enough for us to formulate new and improved versions. Combine that with new drugs and other treatment advancements, and civilization will continue.
Click to expand...

We will all be "survivors", but we will have to suffer without many creature comforts and cultural venues potentially forever:

- No live shows
- Limited television/movie production (Hollywood is shut down again this week)
- No theaters
- No live spectator sports
- No large weddings/funerals
- Limited amusement parks (not sure how they can make a business model work with fractional capacity)
- No dinners for more than 6 people
- No bars
- No nightclubs
- No kids in schools in many states
- Masks forever
 
Birdstrike said:
I would tweek this slightly by saying, if COVID stays around we won't necessarily be "done" as a civilization, but we'll certainly lose a lot of people in the high risk categories. I'm optimistic we'll get a vaccine that either gives long term antibody and/or t-cell immunity, or a vaccine that gives immunity long enough for us to formulate new and improved versions. Combine that with new drugs and other treatment advancements, and civilization will continue.
Click to expand...
I think it more likely it'll become a yearly vaccine like the flu, I'm sure eventually we'll get a long term vaccine of that too but until then we can get flu and COVID vaccines every fall.
 
GeneralVeers said:
We will all be "survivors", but we will have to suffer without many creature comforts and cultural venues potentially forever:

- No live shows
- Limited television/movie production (Hollywood is shut down again this week)
- No theaters
- No live spectator sports
- No large weddings/funerals
- Limited amusement parks (not sure how they can make a business model work with fractional capacity)
- No dinners for more than 6 people
- No bars
- No nightclubs
- No kids in schools in many states
- Masks forever
Click to expand...

Why would cultural venues be closed? It's far better to massively ramp up test, trace and isolate plans and heavily utilize steroids and remdesivir while keeping everything open.
 
GeneralVeers said:
We will all be "survivors", but we will have to suffer without many creature comforts and cultural venues potentially forever:

- No live shows
- Limited television/movie production (Hollywood is shut down again this week)
- No theaters
- No live spectator sports
Click to expand...
These industries have deeper pockets than your average American. When they reach the breaking point, trust me, they'll be back. It's just going to take longer than the rest.

GeneralVeers said:
- No large weddings/funerals
Click to expand...
I was never a fan of large weddings and large funerals.

GeneralVeers said:
- Limited amusement parks (not sure how they can make a business model work with fractional capacity)
Click to expand...
12 hours at Disney World in July with two toddlers will cure your fear of this.

GeneralVeers said:
- No dinners for more than 6 people
- No bars
- No nightclubs
Click to expand...
These activities will keep happening regardless of what nanny state politicians do, either because people revolt and get reopening (most red states) or they'll do it on the sly a la Prohibition (anywhere shutdowns continue).

GeneralVeers said:
- No kids in schools in many states
Click to expand...
This sucks, but already people are making plans to pool together and hire tutors for their kids in groups, ie, self made private school on the sly.
 
GeneralVeers said:
We will all be "survivors", but we will have to suffer without many creature comforts and cultural venues potentially forever:

- No live shows
- Limited television/movie production (Hollywood is shut down again this week)
- No theaters
- No live spectator sports
- No large weddings/funerals
- Limited amusement parks (not sure how they can make a business model work with fractional capacity)
- No dinners for more than 6 people
- No bars
- No nightclubs
- No kids in schools in many states
- Masks forever
Click to expand...

I'd be OK with half of these disappearing, starting with large weddings and funerals. I can't say I'd miss spectator sport or amusement parks either.
 
miacomet said:
I have a hard time equating someone as milquetoast as Joe Biden with anarchy.
Click to expand...

He's equitable with nothing happening whatsoever. What exactly do you expect to happen to the country in regards to Covid response when sleepy biden takes the seat? For the record Trump is trash too.
 
miacomet said:
I'd be OK with half of these disappearing, starting with large weddings and funerals. I can't say I'd miss spectator sport or amusement parks either.
Click to expand...

I’m only okay with bars and nightclubs disappearing.

Movies, spectator sports, and weddings are among my favorite things and I would not like to live without them.
 
sunshinefl said:
I’m only okay with bars and nightclubs disappearing.

Movies, spectator sports, and weddings are among my favorite things and I would not like to live without them.
Click to expand...

There's a reason they're popular. People enjoy these things. He's essentially the old man shaking his cane at the kids on his lawn. People like doing ****. I agree with Veers that'll it be a depressing life just sitting in your house wondering when it's time to walk the aisles of Walmart again.
 
VA Hopeful Dr said:
I'm going in September with my twin 4 year olds assuming it doesn't close again. I'll let you know how it goes.
Click to expand...
That's the perfect age. Old enough you're not dealing with diapers, strollers and bottles, but young enough to still really enjoy it. Took my kids around those ages. Fun and exhausting at the same time. As they got older, they liked Universal more.
 
Rekt said:
I agree with Veers that'll it be a depressing life just sitting in your house wondering when it's time to walk the aisles of Walmart again.
Click to expand...
A certain portion of people is going to try to make it this way for others. But there's a critical mass of people who are insisting to go on with life, with whom you can enjoy life with. Not everyone is going into hiding.
 
From what I've seen, those most aggressive about COVID-19 fearmongering and moral preening about "social distancing" and "wearing masks" are the ones littering Facebook & instagram with pictures of themselves doing all kinds of social activities. They all have "just allergies," and now so do 4 of their friends, 16 of their friends and 64 of their friends.
 
GeneralVeers said:
An interesting analysis of the pandemic depending on varying degrees of immunity. Essentially if we have complete immunity, we are good and will reach herd immunity long before a vaccine. They hypothesized, however that this virus will exhibit "waning immunity" which goes away after 45 weeks, meaning that the virus is going to persist at a low level in the community forever. Which basically means we are done as a civilization:

What to do if COVID-19 is here to stay

We do not yet know whether individuals who recover from COVID-19 can be reinfected. If immunity wanes, the disease will become endemic, in sharp contrast to a model in which recovery confers permanent immunity. This column considers the possibility that immunity is indeed only temporary, and...
voxeu.org voxeu.org
Click to expand...
I had a discussion with a colleague a while ago and he had read something a virologist put out that surmised (guessed? Theorized? Made up?) that the 4 non SARS/MERS coronaviruses appeared in the human population likely during the middle ages, and were initially as severe as SARS-CoV-2. Wiped out older populations, produced usually mild disease in younger people, and then never went away. The difference being that by the time younger people got old, they'd already had it (as children) and that that is why these viruses usually cause mild disease, even in the elderly. Of course, the person I was discussing this with couldn't find the article. Has anyone else read this?
 
Here's a very well done article by James Hamblin M.D. in The Atlantic, explaining how and why the herd immunity threshold for COVID-19 may be closer to 20% than previous estimates, and that some locations may already be there.
 
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Articulate, fast moving video explaining the above article, by ZDogg M.D. His view sums up my current viewpoint on COVID-19, pretty well.

1. COVID-19 is serious enough to require reasonable measures (mask very, high-risk avoidance).
2. The seriousness of COVID-19 does not require catastrophizing about it, or extreme shutdowns of economy/schools.
3. Herd immunity threshold may be much lower than previously thought (20%) and some locations (NY, Italy, Spain, Singapore) may already be there, or close.
4. A yearly vaccine will get the locations no yet there, to herd immunity and keep other locations there.
 
While optimism is a healthy reaction to distress (otherwise we’d all just give up!), it’s clear to me that things are not getting better anytime soon.

Why? Things have been worse (both locally and nationally) consistently since this whole mess started in March. I can’t imagine that (1) the virus will magically go away, or (2) a competent response made by government at all levels will magically appear.

Am I personally afraid of COVID? No, I’m not high risk. Am I afraid that COVID will break down American society? Yes, because this is already happening.
 
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Birdstrike said:
Define "break down American society."
Click to expand...

Widespread business closures/bankruptcies, rampant and prolonged unemployment, increases in violence and lawlessness, less trust in institutions, increases in corruption, less participation in democratic processes, increasing inequality, a decline in middle class stability, a shift from the formal to informal economy, etc.

Perhaps most relevant to this board: a decline in middle class careerism, because it becomes obvious that effort is not rewarded.

If you’ve ever been to a Latin American or Eastern European country - we’re headed towards something like that. Not total anarchy, but a stagnant economy and a chaotic society.
 
CheGuevaraMD said:
Widespread business closures/bankruptcies, rampant and prolonged unemployment, increases in violence and lawlessness, less trust in institutions, increases in corruption, less participation in democratic processes, increasing inequality, a decline in middle class stability, a shift from the formal to informal economy, etc.

Perhaps most relevant to this board: a decline in middle class careerism, because it becomes obvious that effort is not rewarded.

If you’ve ever been to a Latin American or Eastern European country - we’re headed towards something like that. Not total anarchy, but a stagnant economy and a chaotic society.
Click to expand...
If Team Panic wins, this absolutely will be the result. If Team Get-A-Mask+Sanitizer-&-Get-On-With-Life wins, this will not be the result.
 
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School boards in my state have been formulating "school reopening" plans that have set the bar for viral case count requirements so strict that the are effectively, "Schools Will Never Open" plans. Our Governor just nuked this today with a mandate that he will not approve any fall school plan that doesn't explicitly give parents the option of a 5-day per week in-person school option and also a remote learning option. Families that are uncomfortable, have the option of remote learning. Those that want a return to normal school, will have the option. I think this is great.
 
MediMike said:
Maybe I'm just as burnt with this as some of the others but Christ Almighty...the individuals panicking about people panicking are going to make me start panicking soon.
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There's no need to worry. Here's why:

Panicking is annoying. Panicking about people panicking, is double-annoying. But panicking about people panicking about people panicking, means you've reached the highest level of spiritual enlightenment.
 
An interesting comparison of Sweden vs. New York:

fee.org

Why Sweden Succeeded in “Flattening the Curve” and New York Failed

If flattening the curve was the primary goal of policymakers, Sweden was a success. New York, on the other hand, was not, despite widespread closures and strict enforcement of social distancing policies. Sweden’s approach of encouraging social distancing by giving responsibility to individuals...
fee.org fee.org
 
GeneralVeers said:
An interesting comparison of Sweden vs. New York:

fee.org

Why Sweden Succeeded in “Flattening the Curve” and New York Failed

If flattening the curve was the primary goal of policymakers, Sweden was a success. New York, on the other hand, was not, despite widespread closures and strict enforcement of social distancing policies. Sweden’s approach of encouraging social distancing by giving responsibility to individuals...
fee.org fee.org
Click to expand...

NY lockdown was badly implemented
 
Interestingly Sweden has seen a dramatic reduction in COVID numbers per day compared to other european counties.
 
The evidence continues to mount for herd immunity through infection of the healthy as the best way forward, with those at risk taking precautions as neccessary.
 
alpinism said:
Interestingly Sweden has seen a dramatic reduction in COVID numbers per day compared to other european counties.
Click to expand...

What are you talkin' about, dude.

Sweden has the combined population of Norway + Denmark, and is averaging a little under 500 cases a day on top of their sustained higher caseload, while Norway + Denmark is under 100 cases per day and has been like that for months.

1594845858198.png

1594845873309.png

1594845892520.png

1594845904979.png


EU countries are as easily compared as U.S. states, but when you look at neighboring Scandinavia, they're not winning anything.
 
xaelia said:
What are you talkin' about, dude.

Sweden has the combined population of Norway + Denmark, and is averaging a little under 500 cases a day on top of their sustained higher caseload, while Norway + Denmark is under 100 cases per day and has been like that for months.

View attachment 312928
View attachment 312929
View attachment 312933
View attachment 312934

EU countries are as easily compared as U.S. states, but when you look at neighboring Scandinavia, they're not winning anything.
Click to expand...
There you go again, posting those naughty graphs 😉
 
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