How long should the lock down last?

[deleted1005514]

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The only kids I knew of doing it were discipline problems. /anecdote

I utilized these services my senior year, and I wasn’t a discipline problem. It was due to a medical issue that kept me out of school for 6 weeks.

our discipline problems went to an alternative school for a year or more, depending on the circumstances.

 

[Birdstrike]

Overheard: (high-pitched, whiny nasal voice) "We need more testing and more lockdowns you ignorant! expert-ignoring! science-denying buffoon!"


LANCET 7/21/20 "Government actions such as border closures, full lockdowns, and a high rate of COVID-19 testing were not associated with statistically significant reductions in the number of critical cases or overall mortality."

 

[gutonc]

LANCET 7/21/20 "Government actions such as border closures, full lockdowns, and a high rate of COVID-19 testing were not associated with statistically significant reductions in the number of critical cases or overall mortality."


View attachment 313647

View attachment 313648

OK Karen.

😉

 

[MediMike]

Thoughts on the following? Any concerns about May 1st being the cutoff of data collection?

Seems to achieve what the goal was?

 

[wamcp]

Thoughts on the following? Any concerns about May 1st being the cutoff of data collection?

View attachment 313663View attachment 313664

Seems to achieve what the goal was?

The problem is the COST to achieve the goal. Is throwing millions of people into unemployment and causing social unrest/riots from full lockdowns, worth it to reduce recovery rates but NOT reduce any mortality? Because of the unnecessarily high unemployment and lockdowns FUTURE mortality is actually INCREASED from suicides, depression, lack of preventive care/cancer screening etc, versus a no-lockdown scenario.

"Rapid border closures, full lockdowns, and wide-spread testing were not associated with COVID-19 mortality per million people. "

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30208-X/fulltext

 

[MediMike]

The problem is the COST to achieve the goal. Is throwing millions of people into unemployment and causing social unrest/riots from full lockdowns, worth it to reduce recovery rates but NOT reduce any mortality? Because of the unnecessarily high unemployment and lockdowns FUTURE mortality is actually INCREASED from suicides, depression, lack of preventive care/cancer screening etc, versus a no-lockdown scenario.

"Rapid border closures, full lockdowns, and wide-spread testing were not associated with COVID-19 mortality per million people. "

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30208-X/fulltext

While I agree that there is a significant cost I question the timing of the data in the article and also would like to see the list of countries it obtained their data from.

Also, do you have a source for the increase in deaths due to the lockdowns in certain states? I'd like to see the data!

 

[Lawpy]

Lockdowns are a very bad idea. They failed before and they'll fail again.

Test, trace, isolate is the way to go

*insert vitamin D memes*

 

[DoctwoB]

Lockdowns are a very bad idea. They failed before and they'll fail again.

Test, trace, isolate is the way to go

*insert vitamin D memes*

There is no "test, trace, and isolate" with 70k cases/day. Contact tracing and isolation only works if there are few enough cases you can effectively contact trace. And even then it only helps if you can actually force isolation. That is the point of lockdowns, to get cases to a point where test/trace/isolate can work. The problem is with as widespread as covid is now it would take a long and more heavily enforced lockdown to get to that point, and the buy in for that just doesn't exist. Unfortunately at this point the only real option is mitigation, universal masking and targeted local shutdowns if needed to prevent overwhelming hospitals.

 

[Lawpy]

There is no "test, trace, and isolate" with 70k cases/day. Contact tracing and isolation only works if there are few enough cases you can effectively contact trace. And even then it only helps if you can actually force isolation. That is the point of lockdowns, to get cases to a point where test/trace/isolate can work. The problem is with as widespread as covid is now it would take a long and more heavily enforced lockdown to get to that point, and the buy in for that just doesn't exist. Unfortunately at this point the only real option is mitigation, universal masking and targeted local shutdowns if needed to prevent overwhelming hospitals.

The cases are still localized in hotspot states? So imposing complete lockdowns at hotspot cities would stomp out the virus fast.

Also test, trace, isolate is something that should've been done a while ago. But my proposal is to heavily mass produce and utilize cheap paper covid tests that gives results rapidly and with decent accuracy.

 

[GeneralVeers]

The cases are still localized in hotspot states? So imposing complete lockdowns at hotspot cities would stomp out the virus fast.

We tried this for 2 months. Slowed down the virus but didn't "stomp it out". Since 60% of the population is "essential" they provide a reservoir for the virus to spread. Once you re-open, the virus accelerates again. Not sure how locking down a "hotspot" will fix things, unless you're prepared to do it indefinitely.

Also test, trace, isolate is something that should've been done a while ago. But my proposal is to heavily mass produce and utilize cheap paper covid tests that gives results rapidly and with decent accuracy.

And do what with that information? A silly, silly, expensive, impractical idea.

 

[AMEHigh]

I read the study and maybe I missed it, but I think lockdowns were referring to countries closing off their borders, not individual states/cities closing non-essential businesses. The data looked at country information (not sure how great their data is), and not individual cities, states, regions, etc around the world. I just wanted to make that clarification as people interpret the data and review the pros and the limitations of this study.

 

[Birdstrike]

How is this related to a discussion on lockdowns? Perhaps this should be moved to another forum.

The man does reference COVID in the clip and personally happen to know, he's pro-lockdown and against schools reopening, all things discussed openly on this thread. So it's 100% relevant. But I deleted the post due to the man's words being too disturbing for public view. But you're right, we shouldn't discuss it. I've deleted it. Did you watch it, though?

 

[Birdstrike]

Yes, I watched it. I don’t find this random 21 second clip particularly relevant to this thread. I don’t personally find it disturbing. Many people empathize with the personal tragedies in Joe Biden’s life. Joe Biden’s name can be used. Not sure the point of calling him “a little old man” and “the man” repeatedly without using his name. Seems like just click bait to get people to watch a video. Perhaps we should try to improve the quality of posts on SDN if this is more relevant than so many.

Fair enough. Let's keep it strictly medical and professional and focused like a laser on COVID "lockdowns." This person who has made the judgement we need to go back on lockdown, and is asking for my permission to allow him to put us back on lockdown and not allow my kids to go to school, is claiming to have witnessed something I've never once witnessed in over 20 years and over 50,000 patient encounters, which is, nurses "whisper in patients ears," "going home to get patient pillows," and "blowing in patients nostrils to get them to move." Have you ever seen any of those 3 things happen? Even once in your medical career?

 

[WilcoWorld]

Fair enough. Let's keep it strictly medical and professional and focused like a laser on COVID "lockdowns." This person who is asking for my permission to allow him to put us back on lockdown and not allow my kids to go to school, is claiming to have witnessed something I've never once witnessed in over 20 years and 50,000 patient encounters, that is nurses "whisper in patients ears," "going home to get patient pillows," and "blowing in patients nostrils to get them to move." Forget BIden for a minute. Have you ever seen any of those 3 things happen? Even once in your medical career? Ever even heard of nurses doing those things?

Yes, I watched it. I don’t find this random 21 second clip particularly relevant to this thread. I don’t personally find it disturbing. Many people empathize with the personal tragedies in Joe Biden’s life. Joe Biden’s name can be used. Not sure the point of calling him “a little old man” and “the man” repeatedly without using his name. Seems like just click bait to get people to watch a video. Perhaps we should try to improve the quality of posts on SDN if this is more relevant than so many.

To answer the question of "have any of you ever witnessed a nurse...", which I think was meant to be a rhetorical question indicating Joe Biden was lying; Yes - I have witnessed nurses whisper kind words into a patient's ear and bring things from home to provide comfort. I know nurses and doctors who knit comfort blankets in their spare time so that patients have something more homey while they're in the hospital.

Kindness is not dead, it's just being drowned out by all the shouting.

 

[MHYDE]

I read the study and maybe I missed it, but I think lockdowns were referring to countries closing off their borders, not individual states/cities closing non-essential businesses. The data looked at country information (not sure how great their data is), and not individual cities, states, regions, etc around the world. I just wanted to make that clarification as people interpret the data and review the pros and the limitations of this study.

Nope they do make a distinction between border closure and “lockdown”.

 

[Birdstrike]

To answer the question of "have any of you ever witnessed a nurse...", which I think was meant to be a rhetorical question indicating Joe Biden was lying; Yes - I have witnessed nurses whisper kind words into a patient's ear and bring things from home to provide comfort. I know nurses and doctors who knit comfort blankets in their spare time so that patients have something more homey while they're in the hospital.

Kindness is not dead, it's just being drowned out by all the shouting.

Fair enough. You've seen 2 out of the 3 but not "nurses blowing air patients nostrils to get them to move."

 

[Birdstrike]

It’s dangerous and arrogant in medicine and health care to say because you have never seen something it couldn’t be true. accuracy.

Fair enough. That's why I asked. The whispering thing didn't throw me too much. And the "getting pillows from home" seemed weird, but I can see that being a slip of the tongue. But it's the "blowing into my nostrils to get me to move" thing through me. I guess that's only stuff they do for Senators.

 

[MHYDE]

You couldn’t imagine a nurse might have given him some supplemental oxygen through a nasal cannula and said, “I’m going to blow a little oxygen in your nose,” when he might have been delirious or altered in the the setting of being sick?

What about when well?

 

[Birdstrike]

You couldn’t imagine a nurse might have given him some supplemental oxygen through a nasal cannula and said, “I’m going to blow a little oxygen in your nose,” when he might have been delirious or altered in the the setting of being sick?

So, the "blowing in my nose" was done by the nurse with a nasal cannula. Fair enough.

 

[WilcoWorld]

I don't understand your question. He was specifically talking about a time he wasn't well. Could you elaborate more please?

You may have missed the point of my hypothetical scenario. People need to try to understand when listening and not rush to completely discrediting another person over the details. See the forest instead of the tree. I feel we have become an overly judgmental society. I think many Americans do too and would prefer to have someone in the White House who demonstrates non-judgmental empathy for others.

He's clearly ignoring the fact that well patients don't get admitted to Walter Reed so that he can insinuate that Biden has dementia.

 

[Birdstrike]

Who knows. That’s just one possible explanation for something that might make more logical sense to you or I. It’s a clip out of context. None of us can ask him more about it. Benefit of the doubt.

You couldn’t imagine a nurse might have given him some supplemental oxygen through a nasal cannula and said, “I’m going to blow a little oxygen in your nose,” when he might have been delirious or altered in the the setting of being sick?

He said, "It's nothin' ever taught and you can't do it the COVID time, but they would actually breathe into my nostrils to get me movin'." Using nasal cannula oxygen is taught to nurses, is done during the time of COVID, and would be strange to describe as "actually breathing into my nostrils." I don't know. I'll drop it, but it's a very weird statement if you ask me.

 

[WilcoWorld]

I tentatively interpreted it as insinuating a negative connotation regarding Biden’s intellect. Instead of misinterpreting the question or reading too much into its underlying meaning, I wanted to know a little more before replying.

Yeah, I think this thread has stopped being a fruitful conversation and if I could exercise better self control I'd stop posting here...

 

[Birdstrike]

What about when well?

Joe Biden wants you and I back on lockdown. When "well" he says things like this,

“I got hairy legs that turn blonde in the sun. And the kids used to come up and reach in the pool and rub my leg down so it was straight and then watch the hair come, come back up again. So, I learned about roaches. I learned about kids jumpin' on my lap...and I love kids jumping on my lap.”

[VIDEO]

 

[AMEHigh]

Nope they do make a distinction between border closure and “lockdown”.
View attachment 313700

Got it, thanks!
I wonder how they interpreted the data since within countries not every region followed same protocols.

 

[Rekt]

Joe Biden wants you and I back on lockdown. When "well" he says things like this,

“I got hairy legs that turn blonde in the sun. And the kids used to come up and reach in the pool and rub my leg down so it was straight and then watch the hair come, come back up again. So, I learned about roaches. I learned about kids jumpin' on my lap...and I love kids jumping on my lap.”

[VIDEO]

The real reason the libs are pushing lockdown. To not have any debates. Yikes.

 

[MHYDE]

I tentatively interpreted it as insinuating a negative connotation regarding Biden’s intellect. Instead of misinterpreting the question or reading too much into its underlying meaning, I wanted to know a little more before replying.

Guys, relax, it was a joke. Someone said he was delirious and altered when sick. I said “what about when well?” and now I explained it and it’s not funny anymore. Maybe it wasn’t in the first place. Forgot to include emoji.

 

[Birdstrike]

CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield: "Open Our Schools"

 

[Rekt]

CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield: "Open Our Schools"

I give it a couple weeks before the switch. I have many friends in distance learning states that were totally fine with it a few weeks ago, but over the past week they have been losing their mind since they have actually had to think about what that means and how painful it's going to be. Aka them being a second teacher and babysitter all day making sure they get their **** done. Some failed to even realize they can't go back to work?

 

[thegenius]

I think the teacher unions are too strong. The only ones who can overcome them are 1) lawyers, or 2) high level politicians

 

[Nobutyesbutno]

Guys, relax, it was a joke. Someone said he was delirious and altered when sick. I said “what about when well?” and now I explained it and it’s not funny anymore. Maybe it wasn’t in the first place. Forgot to include emoji.

Its standard practice in parts of Europe to explain every joke directly after telling it.

 

[Nobutyesbutno]

I think the teacher unions are too strong. The only ones who can overcome them are 1) lawyers, or 2) high level politicians

All over the world the virus is following more or less the same trajectory. And it looks like in every country there comes a phase where people who have been stuck in doors with there kids start getting an endorphin rush by senselessly bashing teachers.

Its happening everywhere...

 

[GeneralVeers]

All over the world the virus is following more or less the same trajectory. And it looks like in every country there comes a phase where people who have been stuck in doors with there kids start getting an endorphin rush by senselessly bashing teachers.

Its happening everywhere...

Senselessly bashing? I think the "bashing" has been entirely rational and logical given the unscientific, political motivation behind these teachers effectively striking.

 

[Nobutyesbutno]

Senselessly bashing? I think the "bashing" has been entirely rational and logical given the unscientific, political motivation behind these teachers effectively striking.

For the sake of civil discourse I'll withdraw senseless. The point I was making is that teacher bashing seems to be a feature everywhere. Globally.

Where I am far from teachers being made a special case, in fact health workers where made a special case at the height of a government mandated lockdown (like it or not) teachers and schools remained open for doctors and health workers children. Which seemed sensible and equitable.

There is a difference between trade unions some of which may be more moderate than others, the managerial class of teachers, heads and principles and front line teachers. The managerial class of teachers in particular face particular challenges implementing government guidance in places before reopening.

Politics or no... teacher bashing to vent frustrations has become a middle class hobby at the moment. Even by people who would otherwise be taking a more reasonable view if it weren't for current circumstances...

I take your point that whats rational is another matter...

 

[GeneralVeers]

For the sake of civil discourse I'll withdraw senseless. The point I was making is that teacher bashing seems to be a feature everywhere. Globally.

Where I am far from teachers being made a special case, in fact health workers where made a special case at the height of a government mandated lockdown (like it or not) teachers and schools remained open for doctors and health workers children. Which seemed sensible and equitable.

There is a difference between trade unions some of which may be more moderate than others, the managerial class of teachers, heads and principles and front line teachers. The managerial class of teachers in particular face particular challenges implementing government guidance in places before reopening.

Politics or no... teacher bashing to vent frustrations has become a middle class hobby at the moment. Even by people who would otherwise be taking a more reasonable view if it weren't for current circumstances...

I take your point that whats rational is another matter...

Naww I can't defend them at all. So many of them have unreasonable demands. There are a number of solutions that would accommodate teachers, while still allowing full-time in-person learning but in many states the unions have rejected these. Their total disregard for any evidence has only two explanations, as has been mentioned:

1. Either the unions are collectively ignorant (in which case they are too stupid to teach)
2. They are self-interested either monetarily, or by politics.

Maybe a combination of both?

 

[Nobutyesbutno]

Naww I can't defend them at all. So many of them have unreasonable demands. There are a number of solutions that would accommodate teachers, while still allowing full-time in-person learning but in many states the unions have rejected these. Their total disregard for any evidence has only two explanations, as has been mentioned:

1. Either the unions are collectively ignorant (in which case they are too stupid to teach)
2. They are self-interested either monetarily, or by politics.

Maybe a combination of both?

On 1. Well "those that can do and those that can't teach and those that can't teach become professors" is a bit of a troupe.

On 2. The original sin of teachers was to form unions instead of professional bodies and thats hurt them in the public imagination ever since. My surmise is that unions are just doing their job which is to represent the interests of teachers. I thinks thats the reasonable explanation.

I'm not suggesting you should defend anyone.... just saying i'm not going to set my hair on fire and run into the street screaming about teachers because of ive seen a facebook post of a teacher sitting in their garden or a repost of a an anti-teacher rant from mums.net

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

I'm not suggesting you should defend anyone.... just saying i'm not going to set my hair on fire and run into the street screaming about teachers because of ive seen a facebook post of a teacher sitting in their garden or a repost of a an anti-teacher rant from mums.net

No one here is doing that.

What we are doing is getting angry that teachers don't want to do their jobs. The jobs we get taxed to pay for.

In my state almost everyone else is back at work. The only things not yet reopened are movie theaters and sporting arenas. Everyone else is back at work, why are teachers special in this regard?

Teachers are constantly telling us how important they are, how they sacrifice for their students, and how much they care about the kids. Here's their chance to put up or shut up.

 

[Nobutyesbutno]

we

We...?? who is we... have you been elected to represent the body of people known as "we"

plenty of anti teacher rants if you look back btw

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

We...?? who is we... have you been elected to represent the body of people known as "we"

plenty of anti teacher rants if you look back btw

We as in some of the other people posting in this specific thread.

 

[Nobutyesbutno]

Here's their chance to put up or shut up.

Well if you understand personal pronouns then you'll understand how collective bargaining works... and why put up or shut up as a negotiating position isn't going to fly...

But by the same token feel free to pull your kids out school... good luck not paying your taxes sweetcheeks... I'll be interested to hear how that works out you...

 

[d2305]

I want to see Biden do a live MMSE.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

Well if you understand personal pronouns then you'll understand how collective bargaining works... and why put up or shut up as a negotiating position isn't going to fly...

But by the same token feel free to pull your kids out school... good luck not paying your taxes sweetcheeks... I'll be interested to hear how that works out you...

you're taking an oddly confrontational and personal approach to my argument. I'm not sure why that is.

as to your second paragraph, I have already done that and my kids will be attending private school this fall. Interestingly, the number of students in the private school has increased by 50% for this year compared to last. It's almost as though a lot of parents want their kids to be in school five days a week..

this will have the effect, as I believe has been mentioned in this thread already, of putting the children of parents with means even further ahead of those who rely on public schools educate their children.

 

[Nobutyesbutno]

you're taking an oddly confrontational and personal approach to my argument. I'm not sure why that is.

as to your second paragraph, I have already done that and my kids will be attending private school this fall. Interesting way, the number of students in the private school has increased by 50% for this year compared to last. It's almost as though a lot of parents want their kids to be in school five days a week..

this will have the effect, as I believe has been mentioned in this thread already, of putting the children of parents with means even further ahead of those who rely on public schools educate their children.

Fair enough. I agree with all of that. But bashing teachers doesn't advance anything who as you point out teach in a variety of settings with different pressures and resources to handle them. My original point was that its senseless bashing teachers.

Its like bashing all doctors for a lack of an affordable universal health care system.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

Fair enough. I agree with all of that. But bashing teachers doesn't advance anything who as you point out teach in a variety of settings with different pressures and resources to handle them. My original point was that its senseless bashing teachers.

Its like bashing all doctors for a lack of an affordable universal health care system.

No, its not like that at all.

Its like bashing the doctors who have gone to 100% virtual visits but still expect to be paid the same (since much like learning, doctoring doesn't work as well over the internet for most things).

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

Good for you for looking out for your kids. I think it's going to be very interesting to see not only the number of parents who switch over to private schools/ home schooling/ co-ops this fall, but also going into the future the number of parents who keep them there and never bring them back to public schools. We've already decided if our district goes virtual learning (we should know soon), that our kids are out.

Public schools are about to take a huge hit, but in more ways than they realize. While I will still have to pay my taxes, my understanding is that our school district doesn't just magically get all of their funding because people pay taxes. There's some funding that is based on per-students enrolled. So if multiple parents pull their kids out, there's going to be a big hit to a district's funding. Add to that that if you take away a lot of the kids who were already doing well in school (because their parents were motivated to make sure they did well, and are motivated to continue doing so) and leave the kids who weren't performing as well, the bar has to be dropped and the quality of public education is diminished even further. Meaning the gap between the have's and the have-not's widens even more. Finally, as I've mentioned before, teachers I think enjoyed more good will than any other professional group in this country. That's gone now.

We actually went to this school last year but are very excited that they have promised 5 days of in-person learning unless the governor closes down all schools. Last year there were 20 kids in their class. This year they have 30. These numbers are about the same at every grade level. They're planning to go from 2 classes per year to 3.

You're exactly right that even if we ignore funding, this is going to hurt the public schools. We all know that the kids whose parents are very invested in their education do better overall in school. So now you're going to see those kids taken out of public schools which is going to make their test scores drop.

I think teachers still have a lot of good will, at least if you believe social media/the news.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

Haha you beat me to it.

Incidentally we still have a few of these doctors in our hospital network. They're not getting full pay as far as I know and we still bash the crap out of them.

We have 2 doing it that I know of. One is my partner who is retiring literally next week. After his 3rd COVID exposure from a patient he said enough is enough and went to this. I can't blame him, between being 64 and being that close to retirement. He was seeing patients until June 1, so 2 months of this before retirement doesn't seem too bad.

The other is a partner of my wife, 50s, and he's doing it because he's not willing to miss 2 weeks of work if he gets sick (he literally said this). He's the same guy who yelled at a patient for coming into the office with a fever. Her temp was 99.6. The only reason he still has a job is because he is the single most productive FP I've ever seen.

 

[Nobutyesbutno]

Well all anologies breakdown in the end but I think its pretty fair.

My children already go to schools with grass tennis courts and enough teachers remained in post for doctors children and so on... which seemed equitable...

As far as funding goes it cuts both ways as some people whose business have gone to wall won't be able to continue paying for private education

Given the overall context teacher bashing just boils down to middle class venting and has very little to do with reality on the ground...

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

Well all anologies breakdown in the end but I think its pretty fair.

My children already go to schools with grass tennis courts and enough teachers remained in post for doctors children and so on... which seemed equitable...

As far as funding goes it cuts both ways as some people whose business have gone to wall won't be able to continue paying for private education

Given the overall context teacher bashing just boils down to middle class venting and has very little to do with reality on the ground...

Well you're wrong about that. Your analogy didn't work at all whereas ours was much closer to the mark. The whole complaint has been that teachers want to get paid and yet not do the job they are paid to do.

So let me get this straight. Your kids got to stay in school this whole time but you're giving us a hard time for wanting our kids to be able to do the same?

 

[Nobutyesbutno]

Well you're wrong about that. Your analogy didn't work at all whereas ours was much closer to the mark. The whole complaint has been that teachers want to get paid and yet not do the job they are paid to do.

So let me get this straight. Your kids got to stay in school this whole time but you're giving us a hard time for wanting our kids to be able to do the same?

Well maybe you didn't like my analogy because there a grain of truth to it... either way no matter.

Obviously I don't blame you for making the same choice as me and putting your children into private school. What can I say... welcome to the dark side.

Somewhat belatedly but im sure that you have saved a few pennies .and im also sure that nothing so grubby as saving money ever entered your head.. im sure you are as pure as the driven slush.... unlike those greedy teachers

 

[Birdstrike]

...unscientific, political motivation behind these teachers effectively striking.

You generous calling it a strike. It's more like manipulated people during a crisis for extortion.

 

[Birdstrike]

Well if you understand personal pronouns then ...

I prefer he/him/sir. And you?