Interesting post!!!
By 2040, you need 20 gap years
should be able to work with robots, Drs diagnosis knowledge will be taken over by AI, hence medical school admission criteria, curriculum, residency etc. will transition accordingly.
This is certainly one possibility. Another is that, along with socializing medicine, medical school also becomes entirely funded by government. At that point, competitiveness would only go through the roof, regardless of any theoretical limits on physician income. Moreover, there will always be a market for people willing to pay for concierge care outside any socialized system, so there will always be the possibility to earn more if you are good enough (either at providing care or at marketing yourself).
Definitely, but it is still a good, secure, relatively high paying job, even with those changes, so it's reasonable to expect demand to continue to far outstrip supply for the foreseeable future, particularly as the population continues to age.
I am going to post a double-down Debbie-Downer hypothesis: The nation will move further into profits-based medicine, and you'll have to be a "meth" like in Altered Carbon to afford medical care!
I agree with this generally but would add the impact of private equity and hedge funds purchasing practices in niche areas of expected increased returns: long term care, cancer, cardiovascular, etc.
I would hope that a year of employment will be a requirement. For too many medical students, residency is thier first job ever and it shows in work ethic.
Long term care? I know that's an area of projected increased need, but increased returns? Most Americans can't afford a regular retirement. Who is going to be funding these returns? Medicaid reimbursements suck, and will only become less generous over time, as the need increases and the system is starved of resources.
) before going any further.BLong term care? I know that's an area of projected increased need, but increased returns? Most Americans can't afford a regular retirement. Who is going to be funding these returns? Medicaid reimbursements suck, and will only become less generous over time, as the need increases and the system is starved of resources.
This will be a niche area for the wealthy, as far as private equity and hedge fund involvement. If they are counting on generous government funding to generate on return on their investment, they should probably spend some time researching the huge financial returns at Medicare clinics (excluding all the fraud, because Wall Street would be far easier to go after!
Cancer, cardio, etc.? That's no different than anything else, with respect to socialized medicine. If it ever happens, most of us will have to get in line and wait our turn. Those with money will be able to opt for a more concierge experience. If payments are going to be made outside of an insurance network, doctors aren't going to need private equity sugar daddies to fund their practices. If the insurance will be MFA supplements, with the same networks as now, practices will be funded by the same large practice groups and hospital systems that fund them now. What is the value add for Wall Street here?
Yes, yes, yes!! My question was, where is the money coming from? Many boomers don't have a pot to p*** in, and have to push off retirement because they can't afford to stop working. You are correct with respect to increased demand. The question is, who is going to be paying those juicy returns Wall Street will be looking for? The federal government that is socializing medicine? I wouldn't count on it. It will be a niche market for the rich. It won't be investable at scale for Wall Street.
Doctors have been saying this since the first HMO excluded the first doctor from its network over reimbursement rates and requiring pre-approval for treatment. And yet it is going to be more competitive to get into medical school this year than ever before. At some point you might be right, but doctors have been complaining about losing autonomy and earning power since the 1970s, and, other than a dip during the height of the dot-com boom, the best and the brightest have not looked elsewhere in all that time.
Medical schools expectations vs employer demands have 180 degree disconnect.
By 2040, you need 20 gap years
In other words, Dr can't be at top of food chain w/o starting at bottom. Don't see anything wrong with that.
Nothing wrong that but is it really need given already a long path to become a doctor?
Wonder how many pediatricians offices have that capability? A routine infusion kind of drug warrants a ER visit for a simple IV or a home nurse call.
A gap year is a quarter million plus dollar mistake.
I agree if medical schools is free. With costs going up and incomes stagnating while other careers are paying more what's the incentive to slog thru all this and become a doctor at 35? Easy for adcoms to say
I agree but I wouldn't word it as a "mistake" because applicants like myself need a gap year for that extra year of a GPA and experience to makeup for a poor start. Otherwise, we would just be throwing money and time down the drain trying to apply with a subpar app
Yet a business degree will manage you like you never learned time management in your life.
Not if you never get into med school
Yes, it is, and is the very definition of a seller's market!!!!!! ALL of these so-called "required" ECs only came about because of the intense competition for a med school seat.I agree if medical schools is free. With costs going up and incomes stagnating while other careers are paying more what's the incentive to slog thru all this and become a doctor at 35? Easy for adcoms to say
I agree if medical schools is free. With costs going up and incomes stagnating while other careers are paying more what's the incentive to slog thru all this and become a doctor at 35? Easy for adcoms to say
Its seems an outlier. I don't know all data but suspect even 1% of applicants are 35+.
Even with those numbers, its not a norm, I suspect it would be by 2040 unless human life expectancy boosted drastically by then.
I think there will become a point where students won't be allowed mistakes at all.
I'll wait until stats come out but gap years are the majority at my school. Only about 30% of my classmates are straight out
For ORM parents humor is not easy ☺️
That seems to the case at most schools and will get worse each year, it's like self fulfilling prophecy.I'll wait until stats come out but gap years are the majority at my school. Only about 30% of my classmates are straight out
Yep. The REAL learning doesn't occur until you're actually in the fray. School, volunteering, interning, etc. are all facsimiles in comparison to the real deal. This applies to every occupation, across all fields.
