How number of interviews affects your chances of acceptance

[Eric01]

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I prepared an excel spreadsheet of how your chance of being accepted to at least one college varies with the number of interviews you have + how likely you think any one interview will result in you being accepted.

ASSUMPTIONS:
I assume a binomial distribution, which means that events are independent. (safe assumption)
I also assumed that each interview has the same percent likelihood of resulting in an admission, which isn't a safe assumption, so take the results with a grain of salt. You might have 3 really bad interviews but then have one stellar one with >70% chance of being admitted. etc. etc.

Anyways, I got bored so I figured why not? Hope some people find it informative.

 

[Tapepsi]

Cool! I looked on the spreadsheet and it said I had a 93.6% of being accepted to at least 1 school and I did in fact get accepted (to two). 😀

 

[gettheleadout]

What about the fact that, as an interview season gets longer for an applicant, they get interview fatigue and the quality of their performance/enthusiasm in interviews goes down? Just playing devil's advocate with regards to your assumption about independent events. 😉

 

[ozzi22]

nice stuff

 

[Donnie1310]

What about the fact that, as an interview season gets longer for an applicant, they get interview fatigue and the quality of their performance/enthusiasm in interviews goes down? Just playing devil's advocate with regards to your assumption about independent events. 😉

Or on the other side, their first few are rocky and then they get the hang of it and skills/confidence go up for the subsequent interviews.

 

[mauberley]

Or on the other side, their first few are rocky and then they get the hang of it and skills/confidence go up for the subsequent interviews.

What about if they fed me chili for lunch and I had an uncontrollable gastrointestinal evacuation event?

 

[Donnie1310]

What about if they fed me chili for lunch and I had an uncontrollable gastrointestinal evacuation event?

1. Write that explanation letter
2. Instant acceptance
3. ?????
4. Profit

 

[iniquus]

Let me guess without looking at your spreadsheet, more interviews = greater likelihood of acceptance?

 

[Eric01]

Let me guess without looking at your spreadsheet, more interviews = greater likelihood of acceptance?

Yes.

 

[milski]

It's nice that you made the effort! Yet another assumption that you have is that all interviews have the same likelihood of acceptance. Some schools interview much higher percent of their applicants and correspondingly have lower chance for acceptance. And even if we assume that you're performing about the same at each interview, the expectations from you might be higher at a school with higher acceptance criteria.

But yes, the general trend is about right - more interviews, better chances! 👍

 

[Mithril]

Some people just suck at interviews. Some people just rock interviews. I think it's hard to treat interview performance and success like flips of a coin.

 

[raltima07]

Some people just suck at interviews. Some people just rock interviews. I think it's hard to treat interview performance and success like flips of a coin.

True, but it is not too ridiculous of a idea either

 

[BarcaBest23]

False spreadsheet. What if most of your interviews are at reach schools?? Also, agreed that it does not take interview fatigue into account. I think most applicants hit their stride around their 4th interview and then start going downhill after that once they stop giving a ****.