Doesn't that make it like, a terrible variable? Someone that applies to only the top and gets one of their less favorite among great options, can't really be called less successful than someone who matched their top rank because their top rank was a local community center.
No, it doesn't. Again, this is why you, at the point in training that you are at can not analyze this information. You may be obsessed with "the top" based on whatever external source you choose, but most people aren't and as previously explained several times what is someone's top choice is dependent on where they get interviews at and a whole host of personal factors. The success of a match is determined by how far down your rank list you go, the ONLY mitigating factor is that you can only rank programs that you interview at. No, you are not "more successful" going to a program with an attached name brand medical school.
You absolutely want to go to a strong program for your residency training. But, the concept that those attached to brand name medical schools are simply better or one-size fit all is incredibly naive. It depends on your career aims and where you want to end up, never mind the obvious biases in terms of specialty selection.
Is it not common for people to say "I'll be happy enough wherever, I just want to aim high" and apply to a list of generally best regarded places?
I would say that that it is pretty uncommon. Most people have realized by the time they hit their late 20s that "aiming high" for the sake of it is not the recipe for happiness. Is it important to end up at a program that will train you well, yes. But, again, the obsession with prestige/name disappears pretty quickly for many/most.
Why does geography become so powerful at the residency level, for a bunch of people that were happy to move across the country for college and/or medical school to go somewhere "da best" ?
Maybe it is a manifestation of where you went to undergrad and the people that you are around, but the majority of college aged people ARE geographically influenced. My high school on the East coast sent 5 people to Wash U. All of them returned to within 15 miles of our high school after graduating from Wash U with the exception of me. Yes, I moved considerable distances, as did many of my colleagues, but it is naive to think that we are the majority. And yes, this does shift even more as people age. Spouses, kids and aging parents play a huge role and yes, 4-5 years makes a difference. The average age of matriculants is what 24? That means an average of 28 with very few people younger than 26.
Do you think most people are like you, or are a huge chunk still like the crowd applying to medical schools and happy to live somewhere cold/hot, expensive etc as long as it is regarded extraordinarily well?
I would say that I am one of the more extreme examples in terms of moving and being happy. Of all the residents in our program, I have moved furthest distance if you include HS-->Undergrad-->Medical school --> Residency and it isn't very close. I am also one of the few that doesn't have children, despite being married for 8 years now. And after watching hundreds if not now a thousand students go through this process, I'd say that very few MS4s ignore geography or are minimally influenced by it. Climate and expense play a significant role. Just ask Mayo.
And the biggest question: how much does your residency matter for fellowships and/or the job afterwards? Is the standout student that matches Podunk Community Hospital to be near family on even grounds with the MGH grad for that competitive fellowship, or job? Do the program directors agree that nobody cares about prestige any more and they probably only went to Podunk for personal reasons?
You can't include fellowships and jobs in the same sentence. For starters, the majority of people don't do fellowships. Many know that they won't going into their program. Yes, what program you go to matters for fellowships, but again, it is the same as the residency match. It is even MORE individualized. People apply to fewer and more select programs. It is incredibly common for people to only interview at a handful of programs and say, "well if I don't get into one of these couple of programs that fit my academic interests and my personal constraints, I'll just go practice medicine as a Board Certified whatever". I would say that of the 3-4 institutions that I have spent a fair bit of time at the number that do that instead of, "I'm applying to dozens of programs and need this fellowship to continue" is probably 2-3 to 1.
This isn't about "not caring" about prestige anymore. This is about it simply not mattering to many people at baseline. Do they notice it? Of course. But does it drive or change decision making? No. By the time you finish residency, you have 3-7 years of more data about you available for evaluation. Again, comparing "podunk hospital" to MGH is silly. Nobody is arguing that there aren't differences in the extremes. Training environments vary. But, when looking at a match list, can YOU figure this out? No. I'm sorry, but you can't. Never mind all of the community hospitals associated with big name medical schools that are mediocre community training programs that to the untrained eye simply look like an HMS or Cornell program.
For the job market? Where you train makes a big difference in where you find a job. But, that is by virtue of the connections that you derive, not the relative competitiveness of where you went. All of my job offers have come from meeting people at conferences, being on the board of various entities, or introductions made by my faculty. But, the lions share of these are academic positions. For private positions? This matters little. What private practices are looking for is completely different than any of this and well beyond the scope of this thread.