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I don't think you'll get a straight answer on this because of how inconsistently 3rd year grades are determined. At my school, shelf exams count for 100% of the grade and preceptor evals only count towards the dean's letter (unless you do something egregious enough to warrant a failure). At other schools evals may count for 50% or more of the clinical grade with shelf exams having minimal impact. So the using grades as a predictor is a poor metric imo.
If you only look at shelf scores you encounter the same problems as using only Step 1. At the same time I don't think attending evals are a very good metric either as different attendings have different standards and consistency becomes an issue.
Personally, I'd like to see better implementation and standardization for Step 2 CS as well as actual scores, as it's the only consistent metric that measure students' ability to take a history, gather info, and create a treatment plan. No, it might not be relevant to every field, but I think it would probably be a better metric for clinical performance than others.
I think a better method would be to introduce a standardized scoring system for 3rd year to try and objectively measure how well you are picking up true clinical skills with real patients instead of actors.