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I think a lot of it is the NBME just being fairly bad at their job. A better testing company with more to lose would probably have changed things up by now.I’d actually be in favor of a different test to better stratify applicants because something has to do it. I just wonder if it would really change anything considering how much these scores are correlated to studying. And it’s not like they could change the material aside from getting rid of stupid stuff like memorizing the names of genes or which chromosome is associated with which disorder. The NBMEs attempt to add more relevant questions has resulted in pointless ethics questions.
An example is Sketchy. People started getting basically every ID question on step 1 correct. Rather than dig deeper into the concepts of ID, they just added more bugs. Obviously when you rely on discrete information testing instead of reasoning or ability to pick up on abnormal presentations, you make testing less reliable and more prone to fluctuation. You need a larger exam to stratify by discrete knowledge vs. application of knowledge and reasoning.
This is a very low level view of the entire picture of an academic hospital. Residents make the hospital money multiple ways that aren't just, "see patient, write note."As always, its not an absolute. Interns in non-surgical fields are absolutely a money loser. From past PD comments, usually somewhere during 2nd year that starts to change. But, even 3rd years aren't pure money makers given the number of elective rotations during which residents aren't earning any money.
Replacing the residents usually isn't even necessary. During my residency, our inpatient team consisted of 2-3 interns, 2 upper levels, and an attending. Usual census was around 20-25 patients. The attending could handle that patient load on their own.
1) Suppressing academic attending salaries. There's no way you could have an inpatient IM attending carry 20-25 patients/day including call/nights/weekends and pay them $225K without a team of residents shouldering the load. That's a higher than average census for an attending in a low acuity setting, let alone a tertiary care center with complex cases/referrals. As @LucidSplash mentioned, they would hire midlevels instead (which would be more expensive).
2) Increasing academic productivity. Residents also enable academic attendings to work fewer days and produce income (e.g., grants, licensing fees) and prestige (i.e., donation money) via academic productivity. Obviously more applicable at higher tier institutions, but these forces are at play at any university hospital.
3) Decreasing need for ancillary workers. Residents don't work 80 hours/week just doing patient care related tasks. Residents (too) often act as a glue that fills the cracks for any unsavory task. So many things beyond the attending's census would get upended if residents suddenly disappeared, and the cost to fill those cracks would be substantial.
4) Getting money from Medicare. I mean this alone covers a resident's salary/benefits, nevermind what they actually earn while working.
I think the idea that residents are worth 2x midlevels is likely only true insofar as they work 2x the hours, especially in neurosurgery. I doubt the contributions of a PGY1-3 in IM averages out to more than 1.5x a midlevel. When you factor in GME costs/rotations outside the main hospital, it's probably closer to even. That said, they're doing it for 50% of the pay AND the hospital is already getting ~$140K/resident. Interns are likely slower than a typical mid-career midlevel. Senior residents are likely safer and faster than midlevels. It probably averages out.