I just submitted my primary today. How much did I hurt my chances?

[LuluLovesMe]

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I submitted today and will probably be verified somewhere between 8/1-8/10. So how much worse are my chances compared to someone who submitted 6/2 and got verified on 6/3?

Say my chances of gaining admission were 50% if I applied on 6/2. What would they be now? 45%?

 

[hoihaie]

it's hard to give you a percentage

 

[Lucca]

Not only is it hard to give you a percentage, it is impossible. While the actual contents and organization of your application are more important than its timing, the truth is that your chances are most likely worse now than they would have been had you submitted on day one but your application is not late enough to nullify your app entirely.

 

[LuluLovesMe]

Ugh I hate that my procrastination hurt my chances 🙁 Wish I could quantify it somehow to know how bad it is.

 

[Goro]

It doesn't work like that. This isn't the Lotto.

I submitted today and will probably be verified somewhere between 8/1-8/10. So how much worse are my chances compared to someone who submitted 6/2 and got verified on 6/3?

Say my chances of gaining admission were 50% if I applied on 6/2. What would they be now? 45%?

 

[LuluLovesMe]

It doesn't work like that. This isn't the Lotto.

Not on an individual basis, but I'm sure that on average, when comparing applicants of equal strength those who apply later have a lower acceptance rate.

 

[WedgeDawg]

You still beat me by about 2 weeks. If you're not a very marginal applicant, you're most likely going to be totally fine. Yes, it's less than ideal, but it's not worth stressing over.

 

[Goro]

Not at this point in time, for the same reason one doesn't eat everything at once in a five course meal. IIs don't go out for another 1-2 months!

Late Aug would be late.

Not on an individual basis, but I'm sure that on average, when comparing applicants of equal strength those who apply later have a lower acceptance rate.

 

[Temerit]

Try not to worry about it, there's nothing you can do about it at this point. Honestly submitting now vs. submitting in June shouldn't put you at much of a disadvantage.

 

[LuluLovesMe]

You still beat me by about 2 weeks. If you're not a very marginal applicant, you're most likely going to be totally fine. Yes, it's less than ideal, but it's not worth stressing over.

I just checked out your applicant rating system! Very interesting! My lack of shadowing docked me 10 points which I'm not sure is accurate since I've worked at a hospital with direct patient contact for 2 years.

I got a 77 by your system. Would that make me marginal?

 

[WedgeDawg]

I just checked out your applicant rating system! Very interesting! My lack of shadowing docked me 10 points which I'm not sure is accurate since I've worked at a hospital with direct patient contact for 2 years.

I got a 87 by your system. Would that make me marginal?

If you got an 87 without shadowing, then my guess is definitely not. You're most likely going to be totally fine, but direct patient contact is not the same thing as following a doctor around for a day/week/etc and seeing exactly what they do.

 

[LuluLovesMe]

If you got an 87 without shadowing, then my guess is definitely not. You're most likely going to be totally fine, but direct patient contact is not the same thing as following a doctor around for a day/week/etc and seeing exactly what they do.

I mistyped! I meant 77

 

[WedgeDawg]

I mistyped! I meant 77

Still most likely not, though I obviously don't know your exact circumstances and the rating system is extremely generalized.

 

[LuluLovesMe]

Still most likely not, though I obviously don't know your exact circumstances and the rating system is extremely generalized.

It would be interesting to get a good amount of data for real acceptance rates based on applicant score.

How much is your rating system being adopted here?

 

[WedgeDawg]

It would be interesting to get a good amount of data for real acceptance rates based on applicant score.

How much is your rating system being adopted here?

It would probably be a better idea to move this conversation to the rating thread or to PM, but I can give you a very general overview.

The rating system is not meant to predict acceptances or distribution of acceptances. It's function is to maximize your chances of at least one acceptances by creating a distribution of schools for you to apply to based on your competitiveness. This distribution creates an initial list of schools that can then be tweaked by posting a "What are my chances" thread with the school list and your individual circumstances. The accuracy of the initial school list depends on how unique your circumstances are - in general, the more you conform to the profile of the "typical applicant", the less tweaking your initial list will need. It's just a tool for creating a starting point. It is NOT a way to predict where you're going to get accepted.

People who applied last cycle have chimed in on the thread. Many found that the distribution predicted by the algorithm matched closely to the distribution that they applied to (generally with success). Some found that their distribution was different; these were typically (but certainly not always) people with unusual circumstances.

The rating system is merely a tool, not an omnipotent prophet, so do not treat it as such.

 

[deleted393595]

I submitted today and will probably be verified somewhere between 8/1-8/10. So how much worse are my chances compared to someone who submitted 6/2 and got verified on 6/3?

Say my chances of gaining admission were 50% if I applied on 6/2. What would they be now? 45%?

What are your stats and are you applying to schools with rolling admissions?

 

[LuluLovesMe]

What are your stats and are you applying to schools with rolling admissions?

I'll PM ya!

 

[ConfusedChemist]

you hurt them less than if you submitted it tomorrow
problem solved.

 

[ZapadniyRus]

Depends on your application and the type of applicant you are. If you really want to get your application in as soon as you can, you can start pre-writing all of your secondaries.

I turned my primary in July 1st last year (verified 22nd I think) and ended up with 4 interviews (3 accepted, 1 waitlist). My last letter of rec didn't get submitted until late August too (5th letter of rec). I think I would have had a better chance at the schools that get crazy numbers of applicants had I applied earlier (Temple/Jefferson/etc.)

There were also couple secondaries I didn't get until August and some schools that didn't look at my application until very late in the cycle (Vermont/VCU from what I remember).

I had pretty average stats, the schools I did interview at were all public schools in the state I'm a resident of.

 

[Flashfan]

Do yourself a favor and pre-write your secondaries. A quick turnaround time will help you a great deal.

 

[deleted702880]

Early July seems to be fine, mid-late July and you might need to rely more on your stats. In either case, getting your secondaries out promptly seems to be the more important issue at hand.

 

[mw18]

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