Inflation, Interest Rates and the Economy for 2025

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Development is difficult in California for the following reasons:

CEQA- Another example of government officials being idiotic and not thinking about future consequences. I sense a pattern...

Somehow now, no one cares about environmental impact.

And Democrats have had a super majority for over a decade. They could have made changes at any point.

Zoning laws- A lot of cities are majority zoned for single family homes. This is the ideal for most people but this offends the sensibilities of progressives who are trying to push more dense housing. They want to push apartments etc in neighborhoods with single family homes.

Why would I, as a homeowner in a single family neighborhood, want to suddenly live next to a 4 Plex or worse. And then have to deal with worse trash, crime, parking issues, etc. I would fight that tooth and nail.
I appreciate your honesty in all of this, I really do. I also get your perspective!

I vote for favorable tax treatment and business treatment in my locality too. I want my property tax to be what it is or lower, and I think you’re entitled to vote in your own best interest.

The issue I feel progressives and liberals will run into is that folks who don’t have time or inclination to go to local political meetings will ultimately be pushed out.

Ezra Klein talks about this in his new book. He mentions that blue collar workers used to go to big megacities for a better life and now that’s flipping, further exacerbating lack of services for people living in big cities.

This is fine, as I don’t live in a megacity and don’t want to. However it does drive demographic shift and migration across the states and dramatically shifts voting power. Works for me personally as I like my vote counting more locally and nationally, but it ensures a forced change in progressive and liberal politics to more populist bent if they want to win again.

Buyer beware is all I’m saying. If people leave blue states for red this will have big effects on people in them. I’d wager the effects will greatly offend your sensibilities too 😉
 
Development is difficult in California for the following reasons:

CEQA- Another example of government officials being idiotic and not thinking about future consequences. I sense a pattern...

Somehow now, no one cares about environmental impact.

And Democrats have had a super majority for over a decade. They could have made changes at any point.

Zoning laws- A lot of cities are majority zoned for single family homes. This is the ideal for most people but this offends the sensibilities of progressives who are trying to push more dense housing. They want to push apartments etc in neighborhoods with single family homes.

Why would I, as a homeowner in a single family neighborhood, want to suddenly live next to a 4 Plex or worse. And then have to deal with worse trash, crime, parking issues, etc. I would fight that tooth and nail.
Peep this video fam, I think it’s super interesting and related to this discussion

 
You keep buying the premise that California needs more revenue.

I promise you that isn't the case. Politicians keep wasting money on numerous projects.state is the second largest issuer of municipal bonds. Even with the high state income taxes next to Texas which has zero income taxes.
Agree the spending is too much.

That’s also why they have 60 billion in muni bond obligations. The second highest in the country next to Texas (which has zero state income taxes). They keep issuing muni bonds for pet projects. When regular income tax collection should cover everything
 
Development is difficult in California for the following reasons:

CEQA- Another example of government officials being idiotic and not thinking about future consequences. I sense a pattern...

Somehow now, no one cares about environmental impact.

And Democrats have had a super majority for over a decade. They could have made changes at any point.

Zoning laws- A lot of cities are majority zoned for single family homes. This is the ideal for most people but this offends the sensibilities of progressives who are trying to push more dense housing. They want to push apartments etc in neighborhoods with single family homes.

Why would I, as a homeowner in a single family neighborhood, want to suddenly live next to a 4 Plex or worse. And then have to deal with worse trash, crime, parking issues, etc. I would fight that tooth and nail.

You basically answered your own question. Current homeowners are the lobby behind the first two. If you don’t have to actually pay, or minimally pay relative to what you own.
 
That's not at all the same. When your income goes up you by definition have more money.

If your house gets reappraised and is now worth 350k more than it was 10 years ago, you don't get that 350k unless you sell the house.


I was reading about the Ranchos Palos Verdes landslide which is affecting $2-5mil homes and some of the homeowners are retired schoolteachers who’ve been in their home for 40-50 years.
 
I was reading about the Ranchos Palos Verdes landslide which is affecting $2-5mil homes and some of the homeowners are retired schoolteachers who’ve been in their home for 40-50 years.
The message there is that the retired school teacher is multiples more important of a constituent than the 23 year old school teacher.

It’s a sad mindset that the cali government has. You win by default because you got lucky once and then the game is over.
 
Development is difficult in California for the following reasons:

CEQA- Another example of government officials being idiotic and not thinking about future consequences. I sense a pattern...

Somehow now, no one cares about environmental impact.

And Democrats have had a super majority for over a decade. They could have made changes at any point.

Zoning laws- A lot of cities are majority zoned for single family homes. This is the ideal for most people but this offends the sensibilities of progressives who are trying to push more dense housing. They want to push apartments etc in neighborhoods with single family homes.

Why would I, as a homeowner in a single family neighborhood, want to suddenly live next to a 4 Plex or worse. And then have to deal with worse trash, crime, parking issues, etc. I would fight that tooth and nail.


You could build your own 4 plex and cash out. Or split your lot and cash out. Or just sell to a developer.

 
The message there is that the retired school teacher is multiples more important of a constituent than the 23 year old school teacher.

It’s a sad mindset that the cali government has. You win by default because you got lucky once and then the game is over.


Yeah retired homeowners are very important constituents. A new 23 yo schoolteacher is much more likely to be a transient in your district.
 
Yeah retired homeowners are very important constituents. A new 23 yo schoolteacher is much more likely to be a transient in your district.
I see it the other way around. Most retired people are on fixed income and aren’t increasing their contributions to tax revenues than a young and upcoming young professional
 
I see it the other way around. Most retired people are on fixed income and aren’t increasing their contributions to tax revenues than a young and upcoming young professional


I mean they’re more likely to vote and vote in every election.
 
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I was reading about the Ranchos Palos Verdes landslide which is affecting $2-5mil homes and some of the homeowners are retired schoolteachers who’ve been in their home for 40-50 years.

In the geologists’ report, they said that since the landslide was reactivated in the 1950s more than 5.8 million cubic yards of sediment — or enough to fill over 200,000 football fields — had been deposited in the ocean since the land started moving in the 1950s.
 
“Charlie Munger Told a 20-Year-Old That Getting Rich Through Investing Is 'Damn Near Impossible' — And You Might Need $10 Million in the Bank.”

Would have to agree with this. The caveat behind index investing for a comfortable retirement is you need to be making a lot. Arguably more than the average physician makes.

 
“Charlie Munger Told a 20-Year-Old That Getting Rich Through Investing Is 'Damn Near Impossible' — And You Might Need $10 Million in the Bank.”

Would have to agree with this. The caveat behind index investing for a comfortable retirement is you need to be making a lot. Arguably more than the average physician makes.



Ironic that article appears in benzinga of all places.
 
“Charlie Munger Told a 20-Year-Old That Getting Rich Through Investing Is 'Damn Near Impossible' — And You Might Need $10 Million in the Bank.”

Would have to agree with this. The caveat behind index investing for a comfortable retirement is you need to be making a lot. Arguably more than the average physician makes.

lol most people would say that having 10 million means you already are rich. I can only assume that Munger is talking about being filthy rich…like sinfully rich, the kinda rich that eventually gets you strung up when the masses turn on you.
 
I don't think this is sour grapes, it's a criticism of liberal governance and tax structures. I never particularly desired to move to California because it's away from my family, but I know a lot of people who have left there (very successful people) because they can't deal with daily life in the cities due to the governance and small living spaces.

Illinois is its own kind of thing. High income taxes + property taxes in areas that no one truly desires to live except for the progressive values that are in Chicago. The weather isn't a draw, so Illinois is losing a lot of population to neighboring states because it comes out in the wash due to the taxes and cost of living. If Lake Michigan was temperate Chicago would be the same as Los Angeles in its problems.

Illinois has high income tax? 5% flat I would think very reasonable.

Illinois does not tax retirement money. So no tax on IRA, 401k. The estate tax ceiling is too low though.
 
The message there is that the retired school teacher is multiples more important of a constituent than the 23 year old school teacher.

It’s a sad mindset that the cali government has. You win by default because you got lucky once and then the game is over.

Your Solution is basically boot out the retiree because they aren't useful to the bottom line of the local government finances.

Even with prop 13 in play, there is more than enough money flowing through the city/county/state coffers. Maybe other states can feign poverty but California can't.

It's the 5th biggest economy according to Newsom. They have plenty of revenue.

The state could also allow way more single family housing development ( the type of hosting most people actually want). There are miles upon miles of undeveloped land inland that could be used.

But it goes back again to progressives pushing higher density, 15 minutes city concepts on everyone. This makes development harder which slows down progress.
 
Illinois has high income tax? 5% flat I would think very reasonable.

Illinois does not tax retirement money. So no tax on IRA, 401k. The estate tax ceiling is too low though.

Tax rate..jpg

For the residents finishing residency, know your tax rate for the state you plan on working in. With a federal tax rate of ~38% (if you hustle out the gate) plus a 13% California tax rate, you’re entitled to tax less than half of your earnings. I have a word for that but won’t use it here. lol.

If you’re young and starting your career, it might be better to initially domicile in a place where you can keep more earnings and start building your wealth. I understand every situation is different, but something to consider in the equation along with the usual (family, housing, job opportunities, etc).
 
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For the residents finishing residency, know your tax rate for the state you plan on working in. With a federal tax rate of ~38% (if you hustle out the gate) plus a 13% California tax rate, you’re entitled to tax less than half of your earnings. I have a word for that but won’t use it here. lol.

If you’re young and starting your career, it might be better to initially domicile in a place where you can keep more earnings and start building your wealth. I understand every situation is different, but something to consider in the equation along with the usual (family, housing, job opportunities, etc).
Those are misleading. Maryland has close to 9% income taxes because it excludes county income
taxes which can be as high as 3.2% in addition to state income taxes.
 
View attachment 401169
For the residents finishing residency, know your tax rate for the state you plan on working in. With a federal tax rate of ~38% (if you hustle out the gate) plus a 13% California tax rate, you’re entitled to tax less than half of your earnings. I have a word for that but won’t use it here. lol.

If you’re young and starting your career, it might be better to initially domicile in a place where you can keep more earnings and start building your wealth. I understand every situation is different, but something to consider in the equation along with the usual (family, housing, job opportunities, etc).
I know you know how tax brackets work.

The top bracket for CA as a single filer doesn't kick in until you break 1 million. The one before that single filer is 721k. So no, most doctors aren't going to be getting less than half their gross income out of the gate.
 
I know you know how tax brackets work.

The top bracket for CA as a single filer doesn't kick in until you break 1 million. The one before that single filer is 721k. So no, most doctors aren't going to be getting less than half their gross income out of the gate.

Out the gate…..Frog in the boiling pot works well. And I do understand the tax structure.

It’s a guide not an absolute. If one is lucky enough to live in NYC, they pay NYC as well.
 
I know you know how tax brackets work.

The top bracket for CA as a single filer doesn't kick in until you break 1 million. The one before that single filer is 721k. So no, most doctors aren't going to be getting less than half their gross income out of the gate.
Most groups in high tax states structure their income in a way to tax defer large sums of money. 1099 workers have many options available to them to defer income. A good CPA is worth his or her fees as they will save you a lot of money. Aneftp knows his tax loopholes and has several friends paying 20% effective tax rates on well over $1 million in income per year. My marginal tax rate is very high as I am W-2 with part time 1099 work for 2025.
 
Those are misleading. Maryland has close to 9% income taxes because it excludes county income
taxes which can be as high as 3.2% in addition to state income taxes.
Beyond local taxes, you also have to consider that many states with low/no income taxes make up the revenue shortfall in other ways - higher real estate taxes, personal property taxes, etc.
 
Beyond local taxes, you also have to consider that many states with low/no income taxes make up the revenue shortfall in other ways - higher real estate taxes, personal property taxes, etc.
Throw in a lower level of social services to cut expenses.
 
Your Solution is basically boot out the retiree because they aren't useful to the bottom line of the local government finances.

Even with prop 13 in play, there is more than enough money flowing through the city/county/state coffers. Maybe other states can feign poverty but California can't.

It's the 5th biggest economy according to Newsom. They have plenty of revenue.

The state could also allow way more single family housing development ( the type of hosting most people actually want). There are miles upon miles of undeveloped land inland that could be used.

But it goes back again to progressives pushing higher density, 15 minutes city concepts on everyone. This makes development harder which slows down progress.
That is a great solution, and allows young families to put those houses to good use having children. Yes, it's a values judgement, but I believe that a 22 year old has more potential to contribute more to the social flourishing than a 72 year old almost regardless of what each is doing, and the government should act accordingly.

Also agree on the housing development issue, there's plenty of problems in California beyond taxation.

I like higher density as a place for younger people to live while they get on their feet in their 20s. That allows them to be near each other to meet and marry. After they use it, they should be able to move to SFHs in their area with their new spouses and use that to grow a family. What's happening now is young people cut their teeth in big cities then immediately bolt when they need more house because everything in LA or NY is going to impoverish them.
 
Beyond local taxes, you also have to consider that many states with low/no income taxes make up the revenue shortfall in other ways - higher real estate taxes, personal property taxes, etc.
Correct but some blue states like New York and New Jersey so bad. High state income taxes plus high property taxes.

It’s compensated by giving public workers like teachers 100-130k salaries in those states though. That’s why it’s not too big of a deal for a teacher to live in say upstate New York Rochester and deal with 3% properties taxes and 8% state income taxes because their pay is much better (120k) there vs Florida (50k). And no state income taxes
 
Correct but some blue states like New York and New Jersey so bad. High state income taxes plus high property taxes.

It’s compensated by giving public workers like teachers 100-130k salaries in those states though. That’s why it’s not too big of a deal for a teacher to live in say upstate New York Rochester and deal with 3% properties taxes and 8% state income taxes because their pay is much better (120k) there vs Florida (50k). And no state income taxes

NYC suburb public workers are great gigs. I have a family member who is a cop in NYC suburb. He makes well over $200k. He’ll retire in his 40s with a full pension and get a job in corporate security at a similar salary. The police and teaching jobs in those areas are very competitive, though.
 
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For the residents finishing residency, know your tax rate for the state you plan on working in. With a federal tax rate of ~38% (if you hustle out the gate) plus a 13% California tax rate, you’re entitled to tax less than half of your earnings. I have a word for that but won’t use it here. lol.

If you’re young and starting your career, it might be better to initially domicile in a place where you can keep more earnings and start building your wealth. I understand every situation is different, but something to consider in the equation along with the usual (family, housing, job opportunities, etc).
I live in CA, am paid on a w2, and my effective tax rate is under 30%. These maximum rate brackets, simply do not apply to the entirety of your income. You can argue that even 30% is too much, and that’s fair enough, but this idea that you pay half of your money in taxes simply isn’t correct.
 
NYC suburb public workers are great gigs. I have a family member who is a cop in NYC suburb. He makes well over $200k. He’ll retire in his 40s with a full pension and get a job in corporate security at a similar salary. The police and teaching jobs in those areas are very competitive, though.
That’s why so many New Yorkers move down to Florida also. Make the money while young in New York. Get ur state/city benefits.

Roll down to Florida and homestead ur Florida property to prevent property taxes increases.

Does New York have laws that prevent property tax increases if primary property??
 
View attachment 401169
For the residents finishing residency, know your tax rate for the state you plan on working in. With a federal tax rate of ~38% (if you hustle out the gate) plus a 13% California tax rate, you’re entitled to tax less than half of your earnings. I have a word for that but won’t use it here. lol.

If you’re young and starting your career, it might be better to initially domicile in a place where you can keep more earnings and start building your wealth. I understand every situation is different, but something to consider in the equation along with the usual (family, housing, job opportunities, etc).
Lol this Infographic is funny. MA state tax is less than GA until you make $1 million.

Wouldn’t know that from looking at this.
 
I live in CA, am paid on a w2, and my effective tax rate is under 30%. These maximum rate brackets, simply do not apply to the entirety of your income. You can argue that even 30% is too much, and that’s fair enough, but this idea that you pay half of your money in taxes simply isn’t correct.
Correct especially if you are married and keep ur AGI under 530k? You aren’t getting hit with 35% tax bracket.

Now singles tax person get hit hard around 230k AGI
 
I live in CA, am paid on a w2, and my effective tax rate is under 30%. These maximum rate brackets, simply do not apply to the entirety of your income. You can argue that even 30% is too much, and that’s fair enough, but this idea that you pay half of your money in taxes simply isn’t correct.

Thank you for that info. Great learning from people like you who are in the mix.
 
Not sure what the average adjusted gross income in Ca is for anesthesiologists, but incentive seems like it would be best to limit AGI. If an anesthesiologist has an entrepreneurial spirit and runs a business or 3, how would the tax rate in California change?
 
Not sure what the average adjusted gross income in Ca is for anesthesiologists, but incentive seems like it would be best to limit AGI. If an anesthesiologist has an entrepreneurial spirit and runs a business or 3, how would the tax rate in California change?
That’s a good question. I have some 1099 income some years, and that ends up doing even better for us because it mostly ends up in expenses and self-employed retirement accounts, which shifts the effective tax rate even lower.
 
I live in CA, am paid on a w2, and my effective tax rate is under 30%. These maximum rate brackets, simply do not apply to the entirety of your income. You can argue that even 30% is too much, and that’s fair enough, but this idea that you pay half of your money in taxes simply isn’t correct.


It’s actually pretty hard to pay more than 30% unless you’re an idiot.
 
It’s actually pretty hard to pay more than 30% unless you’re an idiot.
If u are making 2 million a year as a 501c hospital executive. You will get nailed with 30% effective taxes. Those guys incomes are on public data bases. Everything after 600k as single and 730k is taxed at 37%. No way around it with straight salary as w2.
 
If u are making 2 million a year as a 501c hospital executive. You will get nailed with 30% effective taxes. Those guys incomes are on public data bases. Everything after 600k as single and 730k is taxed at 37%. No way around it with straight salary as w2.

Eggs and beef are expensive these days, but I’m sure they’ll find ways to make ends meet despite that 30% effective tax rate.
 
It looks like inflation will be much stickier for 2025 around 3-3.5% annual. The Fed won't be able to cut interest rates for 2025. DOGE and Musk need to find a trillion dollars in waste in order for the Trump tax proposals to make economic sense in terms of the budget. This puts pressure on the economy due to tariffs and govt. spending deficits. The 10 year treasury will end up staying in the 4.6-4.8 percent range keeping mortgage rates high.

IMHO, your personal plan should factor in longer term inflation at 3%, if not even 3.5%, to counter the cost of goods. Shopping at Walmart recently I noticed big prices for the average consumer on essential goods. The median salary of $85,000 is being squeezed due to inflation. Real wages aren't keeping up with costs. How about your personal situation? The way I see it fixed income investments need to be over 4% just to keep from losing purchasing power.
Stocks and equities offer the best chance to grow your money well above inflation.

Comments?

The bigger question is why is a wealthy oligarch like you shopping at Walmart?? 😂
 
Nobody. Knows. Nothing.
We know a few things.
We're drowning in debt at all levels.
The market on a historical basis is very richly valued.
When the time comes the Fed will "rescue" the wealthy again (ie dig the hole deeper) with lower rates and money printing.
And this guy, The Fund Manager of the Year in 2024, has a great shot of repeating that title in 2025:

1000019812.jpg
 
Let's talk about vacation instead of stupid politics.


I am vacationing in London with the family for a few days and the hotel we stay at is so nice (I would even say luxurious) for $600+/night.

My net worth is only just above 1 mil, and I can't help wondering how the physicians whose net worth > 5 mil are living. It must be insane.

1 pic of the apartment we are staying,

1743457567378.png
 
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Let's talk about vacation instead of stupid politics.


I am vacationing in London with the family for a few days and the hotel we stay at is so nice (I would even say luxurious) for $600+/night.

My net worth is only just above 1 mil, and I can't help wondering how the physicians whose net worth > 5 mil are living. It must be insane.

1 pic of the apartment we are staying,

View attachment 401464
Wow. While I personally wouldn’t spend $600/night on a place, for a view like that that it seems like money well spent. How’s the UK these days?
 
Wow. While I personally wouldn’t spend $600/night on a place, for a view like that that it seems like money well spent. How’s the UK these days?
I spend it mostly for the space (2BR/2BA 1200+ sqft) and location. With 2 teenagers, I gotta do that.

UK is nice, but it's more expensive than the US based on the stuff we have bought so far.
 
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Let's talk about vacation instead of stupid politics.


I am vacationing in London with the family for a few days and the hotel we stay at is so nice (I would even say luxurious) for $600+/night.

My net worth is only just above 1 mil, and I can't help wondering how the physicians whose net worth > 5 mil are living. It must be insane.

1 pic of the apartment we are staying,

View attachment 401464
You’re working still tho. Different story living off the dividends 😉
 
I just want to live a little while I am still living. Lol
In seriousness though, I’d say if a doc is making 600+ per year, it’s likely that that person could double the vacation budget and not feel it negatively, provided other life is in order. No second fast car, no second wife, no second house. Equals double vacation
 
In seriousness though, I’d say if a doc is making 600+ per year, it’s likely that that person could double the vacation budget and not feel it negatively, provided other life is in order. No second fast car, no second wife, no second house. Equals double vacation
Don't make that much. Made 450k+ last year. Still driving a 2009, but my spouse has a 2024 (50k car). My mortgage is < 2k/month. I just don't spend much in the big ticket items (eg., cars/house) because I like taking nice vacations. Unfortunately, I don't have a second wife (or a girlfriend) 🙂. I have two investment properties that are net positive
 
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Let's talk about vacation instead of stupid politics.


I am vacationing in London with the family for a few days and the hotel we stay at is so nice (I would even say luxurious) for $600+/night.

My net worth is only just above 1 mil, and I can't help wondering how the physicians whose net worth > 5 mil are living. It must be insane.

1 pic of the apartment we are staying,

View attachment 401464
Ha. Perfect timing. I just booked London and Paris last night on Virgin America/delta. I procrastinated so much just settled on premium economy because Virgin jacked up their points for the summer flights after Memorial Day for upper class seats which looks weird anyways single row. I’m flying right when kids get out of school for the summer.

Now booking hotels and stayed at Me London two years ago. But gonna to stay at Marriott County by the London eye. I need to revisit looking at other places. The Marriott cost me $2400 for 4 nights. So same as ur $600 but u got 2 bedroom. I’m just counting on the free Marriott rewards upgrade to a suite but it is iffy in summertime with more elites traveling and expecting the same upgrades. I’m titanium elite which sounds good but tons of same level elite status traveling

Need to look at Paris hotels. Next.

Not doing the breakers Palm beach annual Florida fsa meeting cause won’t get back in time.
Got rosemary beach for a week in July most likely and Weeki wachi on west side) with boating to gulf wotj the mother in law who owns place there but she’s having to rebuild it with the hurricane destroyed the old home.

I’m a horrible vacation planning.


I take 2 “big vacations” a year and 3-4 smaller ones since we are in Florida. 3 days cruises super easy, Caribbean easy flight.
 
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