Inflation, Interest Rates and the Economy for 2025

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Why has psychiatrist salaries grown the last 15 years? Was in the mid 150s pre ACA. Now in the low 300s (I know it varies by outpatient vs inpatient) etc.

Psychiatry is one of those hot growing Residency trends I’ve discussed previously. And half the people going into psych tend to be in the spectrum themselves. ….not exactly frat boys. So weirdos demand more ? Or the ACA allowed more reimbursements for mental health?

We all know the answer it’s the ACA allowing more mental health.

But ACA didn’t help peds reimbursements? Especially since half the kids in the USA are on Medicaid? That’s something the ACA should have addressed but didn’t.


A lot of psychiatrists have gone cash only. There’s been an explosion of mental illness diagnoses. They still have 4month waits to get in. One of my friends charges $300 for a 20min med refill tele-visit. When I talk to him I feel like an idiot.
 
This is so wrong. Have you ever run an outpatient practice or have any idea how outpatient billing works? Even if you are literally the only outpatient provider in a specialty for an entire region with a monopoly you can't just set your own rates. Medicare/medicaid pays exactly the same and the insurance companies will either out of network you or in network you at **** tier rates barely above medicare because you have are solo provider and they have all the power and market share.

You are confusing hospital subsidies with free market forces. If the hospital loses access to the cash cow your subsidy is gone then you're back in the same playing field the unsubsidized outpatient providers are. I dare you to find a medium sized city in a Midwest state with enough endocrinologists or rheumatologists to support its population needs and claim that there isn't a shortage. If you've ever had to find a rheumatologist yourself you'd quickly realize how insanely hard they are to find almost anywhere. The ones near me are booking out over 2 years from now.
If you’re the only outpatient provider in an huge area you absolutely can set your rate. That may mean you’re out of network, but if you’re the only provider in your specialty then there will be demand for your services regardless, and eventually insurance companies will be sued/prohibited from selling policies in your area. We see this all the time with psychiatry, but increasingly primary care too. And we see the growth of cash based telemedicine partially as a response to people being frustrated with long wait times in certain fields. If a shortage worsens you’ll see more people opting for these services and as a result increases in pay. If the alternative is waiting 2 years a lot of people will pay 200 bucks to be seen, and maybe vote for changes in reimbursement (okay that was partially a joke, but California voted to increase Medicaid reimbursement recently so it is possible I guess).

Hospital subsidies ARE free market forces. Why do you think they’re giving us money? Because they like wasting money? No, it’s because they have to in order to complete surgeries. It’s funny because county hospitals subsidize anesthesia and are funded by the same government which is cutting reimbursement rates. It’s a circus.
 
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This is so wrong. Have you ever run an outpatient practice or have any idea how outpatient billing works? Even if you are literally the only outpatient provider in a specialty for an entire region with a monopoly you can't just set your own rates. Medicare/medicaid pays exactly the same and the insurance companies will either out of network you or in network you at **** tier rates barely above medicare because you have are solo provider and they have all the power and market share.

You are confusing hospital subsidies with free market forces. If the hospital loses access to the cash cow your subsidy is gone then you're back in the same playing field the unsubsidized outpatient providers are. I dare you to find a medium sized city in a Midwest state with enough endocrinologists or rheumatologists to support its population needs and claim that there isn't a shortage. If you've ever had to find a rheumatologist yourself you'd quickly realize how insanely hard they are to find almost anywhere. The ones near me are booking out over 2 years from now.
There is only one rheumatologist in my county of 120k people. The nearby counties, which are smaller have none.
 
If you’re the only outpatient provider in an huge area you absolutely can set your rate. That may mean you’re out of network, but if you’re the only provider in your specialty then there will be demand for your services regardless, and eventually insurance companies will be sued/prohibited from selling policies in your area. We see this all the time with psychiatry, but increasingly primary care too. And we see the growth of cash based telemedicine partially as a response to people being frustrated with long wait times in certain fields. If a shortage worsens you’ll see more people opting for these services and as a result increases in pay. If the alternative is waiting 2 years a lot of people will pay 200 bucks to be seen, and maybe vote for changes in reimbursement (okay that was partially a joke, but California voted to increase Medicaid reimbursement recently so it is possible I guess).

Hospital subsidies ARE free market forces. Why do you think they’re giving us money? Because they like wasting money? No, it’s because they have to in order to complete surgeries. It’s funny because county hospitals subsidize anesthesia and are funded by the same government which is cutting reimbursement rates. It’s a circus.
Do you do outpatient medicine? Absolutely imaginary scenario you are describing there. You become oon for everyone and you'll either get a bunch of people who won't pay you or no patients except Medicare. I practice in an environment like this in the outpatient setting so I have experience with it. Have you seen the scenario you are describing where you can charge 8k consult fee and actually get paid that by anyone?

Insurance companies own the government, nobody is stopping them from selling insurance because of inadequate networks anywhere....
 
There is only one rheumatologist in my county of 120k people. The nearby counties, which are smaller have none.
Believe it or not the Netherlands averages 1 rheumatologist per 166k people. The US averages 1 per 60k. Probably a lot of EDS clogging things up, but either way I found dozens of cash-based rheumatology practices online. If I were a rheumatologist that’s probably what I would do, and if I had reason to go to a rheumatologist I certainly wouldn’t wait 2 years, I’d pay cash.

I have long felt outpatient medicine in general should be a cash based bucket (rolls over, but if it’s out it’s out). That way there would be price transparency. The last time I went to my doctor a cbc and bmp was billed at like 700 dollars (which I paid in cash via HSA) and their 15 min visit was 350 but the entire bill was denied for some reason by my insurance, and I’m an ASA-1 lol. If I could just pay cash directly (and they would advertise rates/costs for labs directly) I know the price wouldn’t be close to what they currently bill at or they would start making a hell of a lot more money than they do now. The current system is a mess.
 
Do you do outpatient medicine? Absolutely imaginary scenario you are describing there. You become oon for everyone and you'll either get a bunch of people who won't pay you or no patients except Medicare. I practice in an environment like this in the outpatient setting so I have experience with it. Have you seen the scenario you are describing where you can charge 8k consult fee and actually get paid that by anyone?

Insurance companies own the government, nobody is stopping them from selling insurance because of inadequate networks anywhere....
8k consultant fee? Not sure what you are you talking about. You can get concierge rheumatologists visits for 500 an hour easily though. With chart review etc probably works out closer to 300-350 an hour.

My friend is a concierge PCP and makes more than most anesthesiologists. He accepts 0 Medicare. 0 Medicaid. Is out of network with everyone. People give him dollars and he gives them care.

Insurance companies are regulated by the government and they can be sued for inadequate network coverage which is happening more and more. Most recently last week in Arizona for inadequate mental health coverage.

If there is a true shortage then you will have no issues charging cash prices to make your living. Otherwise it’s a “shortage”. Look at what ICU nurses made during COVID. That was a shortage. Otherwise what job isn’t in a “shortage”? Teachers? Police? Firefighters? Accountants? Doctors? Pilots? Flight attendants? Type in your profession of choice + shortage and you’ll find dozens of articles about shortages. Pay attention to the wages though, if they’re skyrocketing the shortage is real.

At this point I don’t know a job that doesn’t claim to have a “shortage”, but I know a lot of jobs with stagnant or declining pay.
 
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8k consultant fee? Not sure what you are you talking about. You can get concierge rheumatologists visits for 500 an hour easily though. With chart review etc probably works out closer to 300-350 an hour.

My friend is a concierge PCP and makes more than most anesthesiologists. He accepts 0 Medicare. 0 Medicaid. Is out of network with everyone. People give him dollars and he gives them care.

Insurance companies are regulated by the government and they can be sued for inadequate network coverage which is happening more and more. Most recently last week in Arizona for inadequate mental health coverage.

If there is a true shortage then you will have no issues charging cash prices to make your living. Otherwise it’s a “shortage”. Look at what ICU nurses made during COVID. That was a shortage. Otherwise what job isn’t in a “shortage”? Teachers? Police? Firefighters? Accountants? Doctors? Pilots? Flight attendants? Type in your profession of choice + shortage and you’ll find dozens of articles about shortages. Pay attention to the wages though, if they’re skyrocketing the shortage is real.
Right a concierge practice, not a practice negotiating with insurance companies. You can't charge whatever you want and expect an insurance company to pay for it even if you have a monopoly ergo this isn't a free market.

There are a lot of issues with concierge medicine and that is a confounder here, especially as it pertains to subspecialty rather than PCP care. Can your PCP friend manage somebody with crippling rheumatoid arthritis and fibrosing ild? The point stands that insurance companies do not pay by free market rules not are specialties paid by true demand. Anesthesia benefits from the hospital's more beneficial payment architecture, other medical specialties don't have that option and are ****ed.
 
Right a concierge practice, not a practice negotiating with insurance companies. You can't charge whatever you want and expect an insurance company to pay for it even if you have a monopoly ergo this isn't a free market.

There are a lot of issues with concierge medicine and that is a confounder here, especially as it pertains to subspecialty rather than PCP care. Can your PCP friend manage somebody with crippling rheumatoid arthritis and fibrosing ild? The point stands that insurance companies do not pay by free market rules not are specialties paid by true demand. Anesthesia benefits from the hospital's more beneficial payment architecture, other medical specialties don't have that option and are ****ed.
So why not do concierge rheumatology? Plenty of people willing to pay presumably given the number of practices that pop up on Google.

I’ll also point out of all the outpatient fields rheumatology and heme onc have no room to whine about the system. I know rheumatologists making >1M as they own their infusion center. Endocrinologists can whine though 🙂.

People honestly REALLY like getting surgery and are willing to pay for it. They love getting epidurals and absolutely would pay quite a bit for it. They’re overjoyed when their knee is replaced etc. Until that’s possible without anesthesia the “true demand” for anesthesiologists will be very high, as evidenced by the fact I’m paid out of pocket more than my average when I’m at a plastics center.

I have another pcp friend that makes like 325, way less than me but would hate my job. No continuity of care, sleeping in the hospital regularly, dealing with actively dying patients etc. he is home for dinner 100% of the time, never works a holiday, never sleeps anywhere but his own bed. Grass is always greener I guess.
 
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So why not do concierge rheumatology? Plenty of people willing to pay presumably given the number of practices that pop up on Google.

I’ll also point out of all the outpatient fields rheumatology and heme onc have no room to whine about the system. I know rheumatologists making >1M as they own their infusion center. Endocrinologists can whine though 🙂.

People honestly REALLY like getting surgery and are willing to pay for it. They love getting epidurals and absolutely would pay quite a bit for it. They’re overjoyed when their knee is replaced etc. Until that’s possible without anesthesia the “true demand” for anesthesiologists will be very high, as evidenced by the fact I’m paid out of pocket more than my average when I’m at a plastics center.

I have another pcp friend that makes like 325, way less than me but would hate my job. No continuity of care, sleeping in the hospital regularly, dealing with actively dying patients etc. he is home for dinner 100% of the time, never works a holiday, never sleeps anywhere but his own bed. Grass is always greener I guess.
Yes, perhaps this discussion is a reflection of how comparatively minor most complaints that come across a rheumatologists clinic are, or how few of them are truly debilitating.

If all your patients were complex RA or young people with lupus that can’t function without care, I imagine most of them would pay a ton of cash to get that treated. However, there aren’t that many of those people, and that means too many rheumatologists, otherwise concierge would be viable.

When half of what you are treating are mere annoyances like skin rashes or seasonal allergies then the demand you have to fill clinic spots is artificial.

People pay for what they absolutely want or need. If they can’t pay they go without and are sad. If that condition is debilitating enough the government mostly steps in to pay for it. If it’s not it’s likely not covered.

Insurance probably shouldn’t be covering most of what rheum does. It pushes down prices, and you shouldn’t take the reimbursement or appointments for it if you’re a rheum.

Unfortunately, If someone is willing to take that money, then that means you’re adequately compensated based on market forces of supply and demand.
 
So why not do concierge rheumatology? Plenty of people willing to pay presumably given the number of practices that pop up on Google.

I’ll also point out of all the outpatient fields rheumatology and heme onc have no room to whine about the system. I know rheumatologists making >1M as they own their infusion center. Endocrinologists can whine though 🙂.

People honestly REALLY like getting surgery and are willing to pay for it. They love getting epidurals and absolutely would pay quite a bit for it. They’re overjoyed when their knee is replaced etc. Until that’s possible without anesthesia the “true demand” for anesthesiologists will be very high, as evidenced by the fact I’m paid out of pocket more than my average when I’m at a plastics center.

To be fair, comparing the rheumatology population to the wealthy plastic surgery population is not fair. A rheumatology patient is not paying $500 for a concierge office visit. They would much rather visit the ER or urgent care. Paying cash for routine medical care is just not culturally acceptable in our current system.

If patients were on the hook for the surgical facility fees, you would see ALOT less orthopedic procedures among many others. Probably close to all procedures done in an ASC would vanish if patients were on the hook for facility fees and anesthesiology/surgical fees. A lot more people would be looking up YouTube exercises to rehab their shoulder instead of the pretty pointless shoulder scopes we do.
 
Believe it or not the Netherlands averages 1 rheumatologist per 166k people. The US averages 1 per 60k. Probably a lot of EDS clogging things up, but either way I found dozens of cash-based rheumatology practices online. If I were a rheumatologist that’s probably what I would do, and if I had reason to go to a rheumatologist I certainly wouldn’t wait 2 years, I’d pay cash.

I have long felt outpatient medicine in general should be a cash based bucket (rolls over, but if it’s out it’s out). That way there would be price transparency. The last time I went to my doctor a cbc and bmp was billed at like 700 dollars (which I paid in cash via HSA) and their 15 min visit was 350 but the entire bill was denied for some reason by my insurance, and I’m an ASA-1 lol. If I could just pay cash directly (and they would advertise rates/costs for labs directly) I know the price wouldn’t be close to what they currently bill at or they would start making a hell of a lot more money than they do now. The current system is a mess.

We (anesthesiology) are not good comparisons to market conditions for outpatient medicine. In our case, the hospital has become the end consumer of our sevices. In outpatient concierge medicine, the patient is the end consumer. Outside of a few wealthy areas, I doubt concierge medicine is a viable path for most people. Patients are just not willing to shell out hundreds to thousands of dollars for routine medical care. On the surgical side, patients are absolutely shielded from market forces because of insurance.

The vast majority of surgeries both inpatient and at ASCs are paid for by insurance…even in wealthy areas. Even wealthy patients would think twice about many to most of the elective surgeries if they were on the hook for all the fees associated with surgery. I’ve said before and I will keep saying it…go to any OR board and you can cross off 50% of the elective surgeries for being pointless or economically and medically ineffective. At an outpatient ASC, that number approaches 90-95%. If the patients felt the market forces of surgical services as end consumers, there would be a whole lot less of us.

I know that reality stings for people in anesthesia, but it is what it is. You shouldn’t feel bad about making money. In the immortal words of Ice-T “don’t hate the player, hate the game.”
 
So why not do concierge rheumatology? Plenty of people willing to pay presumably given the number of practices that pop up on Google.

I’ll also point out of all the outpatient fields rheumatology and heme onc have no room to whine about the system. I know rheumatologists making >1M as they own their infusion center. Endocrinologists can whine though 🙂.
@bronx43 can comment on this but from what I understand, this isn't really feasible for the newer attendings. Same for Heme-Onc. Nowadays, only big hospital systems have access to these sweet deals.
People honestly REALLY like getting surgery and are willing to pay for it. They love getting epidurals and absolutely would pay quite a bit for it. They’re overjoyed when their knee is replaced etc. Until that’s possible without anesthesia the “true demand” for anesthesiologists will be very high, as evidenced by the fact I’m paid out of pocket more than my average when I’m at a plastics center.
But in more saturated locations, there aren't enough true rheum patients to go around. Rheumatologists end up seeing a bunch of ANA+ patients with vague fibro complaints and fatigue. As @GravelRider and @PainInTheAnes mentioned, these types of patients are generally not willing to pay cash just to see a rheumatologist. They'll wait until their scheduled rheum visit through Kaiser bc their complaints aren't very urgent to begin with.
 
It’s been a while since I looked at flat rate hospital cash fees. 2016?

Anesthesia epidural was $500 cash and $200 for cs extra
OB flat rate was $500 for cs and $2000 flat rate for 7-8 months ob visits

Hospital facility fee was $6000 flat. Vaginal and $2000 for ca

So around $10000 total

Vs insurance

If someone self employed is already paying $1700-2500 a month for insurance non subsidized on exchanges plus a 10k high deductible

The cash rate makes sense Vs having insurance if healthy
 
@bronx43 can comment on this but from what I understand, this isn't really feasible for the newer attendings. Same for Heme-Onc. Nowadays, only big hospital systems have access to these sweet deals.

But in more saturated locations, there aren't enough true rheum patients to go around. Rheumatologists end up seeing a bunch of ANA+ patients with vague fibro complaints and fatigue. As @GravelRider and @PainInTheAnes mentioned, these types of patients are generally not willing to pay cash just to see a rheumatologist. They'll wait until their scheduled rheum visit through Kaiser bc their complaints aren't very urgent to begin with.
Sure, and in that case I would argue the “true demand” for rheumatological services is very low in those areas as a result. Saturated areas? Doesn’t sound like there’s much shortage then right?

My 2 main points are


1: 99% of “shortages” are BS if they aren’t coupled with pay increases.

2: complaining that a field known to compensate poorly continued to compensate poorly after you willingly went into it is dumb. Usually these people are living in saturated areas within a field that frankly there’s no actual shortage in. Bonus points if they’re in academics. Extra bonus points if they refuse to pursue things like concierge medicine after expressing interest in making more money. There’s a reason everyone doesn’t gun for neurosurgery - because the idea of cutting into a brain is terrifying for many people and dealing with horrendous complications, liability out the butt etc. There’s a ton to love about lower paid fields like allergy/endo/rheum/peds and if you don’t like those things idk why you would pursue the field.

To be fair, comparing the rheumatology population to the wealthy plastic surgery population is not fair. A rheumatology patient is not paying $500 for a concierge office visit. They would much rather visit the ER or urgent care. Paying cash for routine medical care is just not culturally acceptable in our current system.

If patients were on the hook for the surgical facility fees, you would see ALOT less orthopedic procedures among many others. Probably close to all procedures done in an ASC would vanish if patients were on the hook for facility fees and anesthesiology/surgical fees. A lot more people would be looking up YouTube exercises to rehab their shoulder instead of the pretty pointless shoulder scopes we do.
Maybe, maybe not. A lot of people need cancer surgery. Gall bladders removed. Thyroids removed. CABG. Valves replaced. Possible lung cancer biopsied. I don’t do that much ortho scope ASC stuff but would be fine if 100% of those surgeries stopped being covered anyway.
 
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Futures down on Israeli attacking Iran.

A buying opportunity if they squash Iranian nuke capability swiftly and decisively.
A selling opportunity if this drags on into a much larger multi-national forever war.

Take your pick.
 
Sure, and in that case I would argue the “true demand” for rheumatological services is very low in those areas as a result. Saturated areas? Doesn’t sound like there’s much shortage then right?

My 2 main points are


1: 99% of “shortages” are BS if they aren’t coupled with pay increases.

2: complaining that a field known to compensate poorly continued to compensate poorly after you willingly went into it is dumb. Usually these people are living in saturated areas within a field that frankly there’s no actual shortage in. Bonus points if they’re in academics. Extra bonus points if they refuse to pursue things like concierge medicine after expressing interest in making more money. There’s a reason everyone doesn’t gun for neurosurgery - because the idea of cutting into a brain is terrifying for many people and dealing with horrendous complications, liability out the butt etc. There’s a ton to love about lower paid fields like allergy/endo/rheum/peds and if you don’t like those things idk why you would pursue the field.
Agreed. With that context, I’d say there’s really no specialty in medicine that has a shortage bc most don’t want to live in a rural town/BFE. It’s more of an issue with maldistribution of physicians. Anesthesia can capitalize on this by doing locums—essentially practicing in pockets where there is a shortage. OC, LA? Probably impossible.
 
Agreed. With that context, I’d say there’s really no specialty in medicine that has a shortage bc most don’t want to live in a rural town/BFE. It’s more of an issue with maldistribution of physicians. Anesthesia can capitalize on this by doing locums—essentially practicing in pockets where there is a shortage. OC, LA? Probably impossible.

Literally got this text yesterday. Rates lower than more far flung places but there is a need.


“Dr XXXXX! We spoke a while back about anesthesia locums work. I have a big need in Los Angeles. $17k+ per week. The assignment should run for a long time. Any interest in helping out?”
 
Literally got this text yesterday. Rates lower than more far flung places but there is a need.


“Dr XXXXX! We spoke a while back about anesthesia locums work. I have a big need in Los Angeles. $17k+ per week. The assignment should run for a long time. Any interest in helping out?”

Is this from cedars? Hahaha, I hear it’s a dumpster fire there right now
 
A lot of psychiatrists have gone cash only. There’s been an explosion of mental illness diagnoses. They still have 4month waits to get in. One of my friends charges $300 for a 20min med refill tele-visit. When I talk to him I feel like an idiot.
I think part of that is that most regular docs refuse to prescribe sedatives, hypnotic and pain meds.

So you have to go through a psych np/pa/md
 
Futures down on Israeli attacking Iran.

A buying opportunity if they squash Iranian nuke capability swiftly and decisively.
A selling opportunity if this drags on into a much larger multi-national forever war.

Take your pick.

its almost always a buying opportun these days. ill go with choice uno.
 
Futures down on Israeli attacking Iran.

A buying opportunity if they squash Iranian nuke capability swiftly and decisively.

Not possible short of invasion and regime change. If Iran wants nukes, Iran will get nukes. Iran wants nukes, therefore Iran will get them.

We'd be better off dealing with that inevitability via diplomacy and containment (ie the USSR M.A.D. playbook) than pretending some Israeli airstrikes and assassinations can prevent Iran from getting them.

A selling opportunity if this drags on into a much larger multi-national forever war.

So, status quo? 🙂

No one's going to invade Iran. Iran won't nuke Israel. The rest is just noise. The ongoing grind of low-intensity proxy wars will continue.

I'm more worried about Pakistan, to be honest. Much less stable government, more true believer jihadis than Iran, much higher risk of a dirty bomb or even a functional warhead finding its way into the hands of someone able to truck it into Tel Aviv, or ship it to New York.
 
The big beautiful bill will save us some money.


View attachment 405077
The bush 43 tax cuts forever favored the lower class where 40% of them don’t pay any federal taxes. Obama kept the bush tax cut cause he love it so much

Trump double the child tax credit in 2017? Right?

I don’t know how you can say the poor don’t benefit.

The issue is we (us). Those making 300k-800k are in this donut hole where we don’t really from any tax policy democrat or republican
 
The bush 43 tax cuts forever favored the lower class where 40% of them don’t pay any federal taxes. Obama kept the bush tax cut cause he love it so much

Trump double the child tax credit in 2017? Right?

I don’t know how you can say the poor don’t benefit.

The issue is we (us). Those making 300k-800k are in this donut hole where we don’t really from any tax policy democrat or republican
They will lose some benefits (eg., food stamps etc...); that is why they won't OVERALL benefit from the bill.

1749948923573.png
 
The bush 43 tax cuts forever favored the lower class where 40% of them don’t pay any federal taxes. Obama kept the bush tax cut cause he love it so much

Trump double the child tax credit in 2017? Right?

I don’t know how you can say the poor don’t benefit.

The issue is we (us). Those making 300k-800k are in this donut hole where we don’t really from any tax policy democrat or republican

We are in a position where we don’t have enough money to significantly contribute to political campaigns and our numbers aren’t large enough to swing districts in either direction. No political party will ever really consider our concerns.

Trump signed what is probably the most negatively consequential bill for anesthesiologists in the past decade…the No Suprise Act…yet many anesthesiologists are still diehard MAGA.
 
We are in a position where we don’t have enough money to significantly contribute to political campaigns and our numbers aren’t large enough to swing districts in either direction. No political party will ever really consider our concerns.

Trump signed what is probably the most negatively consequential bill for anesthesiologists in the past decade…the No Suprise Act…yet many anesthesiologists are still diehard MAGA.
I think we do as a group. There are close to 1 million active physicians in the US. That is a big group that is in the upper and wealthy class.
 
I think we do as a group. There are close to 1 million active physicians in the US. That is a big group that is in the upper and wealthy class.
Doctors were a powerful political force when most doctors were in primary care and the AMA was our main political voice. These days we’re all partitioned into specialties, completely unaligned with each other, many bickering over getting more of the pie at the expense of others.

I don’t know how to fix that and I generally don’t agree with the AMA on a lot of points and don’t contribute to them, so I guess I’m part of the problem.
 
Doctors were a powerful political force when most doctors were in primary care and the AMA was our main political voice. These days we’re all partitioned into specialties, completely unaligned with each other, many bickering over getting more of the pie at the expense of others.

I don’t know how to fix that and I generally don’t agree with the AMA on a lot of points and don’t contribute to them, so I guess I’m part of the problem.
Maybe we should advocate to abolish all the other societies and return back to the AMA fighting for ALL physicians as a goup. Make all physicians contribute $200-300 every time they are renewing their license. Therefore, the AMA would have a lot money to fight our battles.
 
I will say the AMA has gotten a LOT better recently about fighting scope creep. I may become a member again and I haven’t since I was a medical student. They seem to finally understand the problem, although it’s sort of a bit late. The only thing I can think of is a huge push federally to put the practice of medicine under the jurisdiction of well, medical boards again. Aka no unsupervised practice any time, anywhere. But probably a pipe dream until someone important gets killed by an online degree NP.
 
I will say the AMA has gotten a LOT better recently about fighting scope creep. I may become a member again and I haven’t since I was a medical student. They seem to finally understand the problem, although it’s sort of a bit late. The only thing I can think of is a huge push federally to put the practice of medicine under the jurisdiction of well, medical boards again. Aka no unsupervised practice any time, anywhere. But probably a pipe dream until someone important gets killed by an online degree NP.
The AMA's primary source of revenue is selling CPT code changes and have been given a functional monopoly on this by the federal government. They created the RUC which operates like a cartel for subspecialists at the expense of all cognitive specialties. Would need a total purge of administration and to bring back a physician-oriented mission instead of bull**** CPT nonsense pushed by current bloated administrative parasites to get any physician buy in on that which will absolutely never happen.
 
Powell today:

Fed has lowered GDP estimate to 1.4%, inflation estimate lifted to 3%.

“Increases in tariffs are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity"...
 
Still feel the underlying momentum is Bullish but that won't last forever if the negative Trump pressure isn't alleviated.

War
Trade
Big Beautiful Bury the country Bill

So far it's textbook,
Art of the NO Deals
 
jeesh the market is down 10% from its ATH and people are going insane. 2.5 years ago we were at a dow of 28,000. Id bet we dont even get close to breaking low 30k in the dow. This all seems like a game of chicken.. tariff one day then canceled. expecting new ATH before 2026 as the fed will cut big, money printer will go bananas and we will all be wondering why we didn't invest more in this rinse and repeat cycle.

If i'm wrong maybe i can finally buy a cheaper house with maybe a sub 5% rate finally.

Post above is from April 4th 2025

LOL this happened in the same quarter as the doom and gloom. love it.

Incoming fed rate cuts soon. Something else is going to skyrocket more than people think.
 
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Post above is from April 4th 2025

LOL this happened in the same quarter as the doom and gloom. love it.

Incoming fed rate cuts soon. Something else is going to skyrocket more than people think.
Simply means no one can predict the market. Just like no one can predict rookie of the year, who will win the Super Bowl, NBA championship, etc. I always laugh when watching ESPN or CNBC when they talk seriously about **** that no one can know.
 
Simply means no one can predict the market. Just like no one can predict rookie of the year, who will win the Super Bowl, NBA championship, etc. I always laugh when watching ESPN or CNBC when they talk seriously about **** that no one can know.


The market will continue to make ATHs over time. That’s the only reason to invest in stocks.
 
Simply means no one can predict the market. Just like no one can predict rookie of the year, who will win the Super Bowl, NBA championship, etc. I always laugh when watching ESPN or CNBC when they talk seriously about **** that no one can know.
My prediction is this latest accelerated breakout above the all time high is going to head up at a fast pace trying to merge back into the 2 year boom trendline the last 2 years of the Biden term.

1998 is the template where the Naz fell 25% similar to this past drop and v-bottomed rocketed back up to fall back into dot.com trendline. I'm running tqqq's since Breakout Monday May 12. They are great on a run, bad in a flat market, and horrendous in a down market so they aren't for the faint of heart, but despite the numerous overall risks out there the ai explosion looks too much like the dot com explosion.... just get out before the following implosion, but I feel that's years away.
 
My prediction is this latest accelerated breakout above the all time high is going to head up at a fast pace trying to merge back into the 2 year boom trendline the last 2 years of the Biden term.

1998 is the template where the Naz fell 25% similar to this past drop and v-bottomed rocketed back up to fall back into dot.com trendline. I'm running tqqq's since Breakout Monday May 12. They are great on a run, bad in a flat market, and horrendous in a down market so they aren't for the faint of heart, but despite the numerous overall risks out there the ai explosion looks too much like the dot com explosion.... just get out before the following implosion, but I feel that's years away.
The key is knowing when the implosion will happen. My guess is it will be by the end of Trump presidency.
 
Valuations are atrocious right now. AI basically has to pan out in an incredibly profitable way in the near term for this to make any sense, let alone a run up from here. That said - still fully invested in all my retirement accounts. A lot of people are betting the money printer turns back on, and they may be right.
 
Valuations are atrocious right now. AI basically has to pan out in an incredibly profitable way in the near term for this to make any sense, let alone a run up from here. That said - still fully invested in all my retirement accounts. A lot of people are betting the money printer turns back on, and they may be right.

The money printer in the system we’re presently in always has to be on. go brrrr.
 
No one can predict rookie of the year, who will win the Super Bowl, NBA championship
I disagree. I predict you'll win rookie of the year, the Yankees will win the Super Bowl, and and my high school team will win the NBA championship. See how easy that was?
 
Actually sticks as a percentage of net worth are near an all time high. Not a positive sign.
What’s that percentage? Home equity is or close to sky high as well.

The ultra rich networth (ultra rich generally starts at 30 million ) are tied to their stocks. 5 million in real estate holdings and say 25 million in stocks. For example. More of a 15/85 split

Vs the higher net worth people like us with 2 million in home equity and 5 million in stocks it’s more like a 30-70 split.

The gap between the ultra rich and the common people is huge in terms of stocks as a percentage of their network.
 
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