Inflation, Interest Rates and the Economy for 2025

[BLADEMDA]

If someone is ready to retire and has 3-5 years of cash or equivalents for living expenses and also is able to live off the 3-4% rule with half their liquid net worth thats already getting a bit overkill imo. Not saying they would necessarily be living the highest level of retirement life during a prolonged 50% market correction.

If you look at the major crashes starting from 2000 in regards to the US/Shanghai/Japan/Euro market so long as you had 5 years of cash or cash equivalents you never would have had to touch your investments much below their peak value if you so happened to literally retire on the day the markets all peaked.

My take away after looking into this: 5 years of cash equivalents is a huge milestone for those on the cusp of retiring and sure some may say its overkill

What will real inflation be for 2025? My guess is around 10% due to the Trump Tariffs. For the average middle class person these tariffs will really hurt their purchasing power. We won't feel the effects of the tariffs until the second half of this year, and the worst of it late Fall/winter. Trump's foreign policy is also based on high tariffs and that could backfire on the US economy as well. The old adage "divide and conquer" is what Trump should have done with each nation over his 4 year term. Instead, Trump took on the entire world all at once and now wants to increase Tariffs on any country buying oil from Iran or Russia. I am greatly concerned this is another huge risk we don't need at this time.

---

Members don't see this ad.

 

[finalpsychyear]

What will real inflation be for 2025? My guess is around 10% due to the Trump Tariffs. For the average middle class person these tariffs will really hurt their purchasing power. We won't feel the effects of the tariffs until the second half of this year, and the worst of it late Fall/winter. Trump's foreign policy is also based on high tariffs and that could backfire on the US economy as well. The old adage "divide and conquer" is what Trump should have done with each nation over his 4 year term. Instead, Trump took on the entire world all at once and now wants to increase Tariffs on any country buying oil from Iran or Russia. I am greatly concerned this is another huge risk we don't need at this time.

I bet we see new highs in the market during the year. This is a dog and ponie show that will be resolved with a few drinks, cigars and handshakes galore.

 

[aneftp]

2008 was a bank (and insurance industry) bailout. They were levered up and the bubble popped (and the insurance companies couldn’t to cover their contracts look up AIG). The Sovereigns covered all the losses (via QE), and now we’re here.

I think we should have all the investment banks collapse. But what’s done is done.

I’m in favor of business and individuals making risks. That’s how the world works.

But we need clawbacks of bonus etc for illegal dealings for 3 years. This puts fraudsters on red alert they won’t be able to keep their money if they know they did something illegal

Even Goldman finally paid a small 5 billion dollar fine years after 2008 and finally admitted to some wrong doing. But 5 billion is like telling anesthesia docs they will pay a 20k fine to settle a wrong doing. A drop in the bucket for Goldman

Goldman Sachs Agrees to Pay More than $5 Billion in Connection with Its Sale of Residential Mortgage Backed Securities

This is archived content from the U.S. Department of Justice website. The information here may be outdated and links may no longer function. Please contact [email protected] if you have any questions about the archive site.

www.justice.gov

 

[MirrorTodd]

I bet we see new highs in the market during the year. This is a dog and ponie show that will be resolved with a few drinks, cigars and handshakes galore.

lol even Warren Buffet is leaving.

Warren Buffett to step down from Berkshire Hathaway after six decades

‘Oracle of Omaha’ announces plans to retire from his sprawling conglomerate at historic annual meeting

www.ft.com

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

I think we should have all the investment banks collapse. But what’s done is done.

I’m in favor of business and individuals making risks. That’s how the world works.

Absolutely agree. Everytime someone said too big to fail, I said, No they are too big to resuscitate.

 

[Dr. Rude]

Absolutely agree. Everytime someone said too big to fail, I said, No they are too big to resuscitate.

They should be too big to exist if too big to fail.

 

[CopaceticOne]

lol even Warren Buffet is leaving.

Warren Buffett to step down from Berkshire Hathaway after six decades

‘Oracle of Omaha’ announces plans to retire from his sprawling conglomerate at historic annual meeting

www.ft.com

The dude is in his mid 90s. Can’t fault him at all.

 

[aneftp]

They should be too big to exist if too big to fail.

Worst is they near 0% interest to reinvest in more risky trades after the collapse. So I got access to free money at the bottom of the stock market in March 2009 and buy more stuff at the bottom and make even more

It’s like some homeowners who were allowed to short sale their homes 2008-2010. Didn’t get any or much of a credit hit. And those same homeowners re purchased foreclosed or distressed homes in 2012 near bottom of the housing market

Buy High in 2005 (used profits form sale of previous homes as atm and fund lifestyle rather than put it into new homes). Short sale in 2009/2010 for 50% off.

Rebuy the same or similar home in 2012 for 50%.

No penalty for those homeowners

That’s what Goldman got to do but on a much larger scale.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

I look at previous market patterns because that's what humans do, they repeat the same behaviors. With gold I think we're in a very similar run that ran up 4x from 05 to 11, and just like back then it had periods of getting way ahead of itself and pulling back for an extended period. It looks to me to be going back under 3000, 2800-3000, and I'll cover the sold calls at that point.

Looking at previous bear markets I still think this is nothing more than a bear market rally that is testing where the market broke down very similar to previous bear markets such as most recently in 2022, and then back down to the lows. Obviously no previous patterns are etched in stone so we'll see.

 

[nimbus]

They should be too big to exist if too big to fail.

Google? Apple?

 

[nimbus]

Worst is they near 0% interest to reinvest in more risky trades after the collapse. So I got access to free money at the bottom of the stock market in March 2009 and buy more stuff at the bottom and make even more

It’s like some homeowners who were allowed to short sale their homes 2008-2010. Didn’t get any or much of a credit hit. And those same homeowners re purchased foreclosed or distressed homes in 2012 near bottom of the housing market

Buy High in 2005 (used profits form sale of previous homes as atm and fund lifestyle rather than put it into new homes). Short sale in 2009/2010 for 50% off.

Rebuy the same or similar home in 2012 for 50%.

No penalty for those homeowners

That’s what Goldman got to do but on a much larger scale.

“Free market” capitalism at its finest. Best story/sales pitch gets the cheapest capital.

 

[Dr. Rude]

Google? Apple?

They have antitrust issues and too much influence with legislators. But their failure wouldn’t cause financial markets to cease to function.