Investments in cryptocurrency? thoughts

Discussion in 'Finance and Investment' started by Rxprincess96, Nov 20, 2017.

  1. Rxprincess96

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    Good time to invest now?
     
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  3. ThoracicGuy

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    If you have money to play with, sure. As an investment for retirement? No.
     
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  4. bravotwozero

    bravotwozero Chronically ambitious

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    I've tripled the money from my initial investment in 3 months on bitcoin. But I only used enough money so that if it went down to zero, it wouldn't ruin me financially. There's strong arguments on both sides for or against cryptocurrencies...but I am of the opinion this isn't going away anytime soon, because of bitcoin's deregulated nature, and the fact that there's a limited amount in circulation. My crystal ball says more people will use bitcoin once people lose confidence in the dollar. Why will that happen? because the Chinese are now using their own currency (yuan/renminbi) instead of dollars to buy oil - the one thing that props up the dollar. This should be sending shockwaves throughout the financial world, but is by far the most underreported story of the year.

    The trillion dollar question: What happens to the value of the greenback if other countries also ditch the dollar when buying and selling oil?...
     
  5. Chip N Sawbones

    Chip N Sawbones Ship's Carpenter

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    At this point the only reason Bitcoin keeps going up in price is because people think it will keep going up in price. As soon as perception changes to the point where people think they will lose their money, or even if they think they'll break even by buying Bitcoin, the price is going to drop just as fast as it's risen. Basically you're betting on their being a greater fool than you at some point when you want to sell.
     

  6. I'm not saying that it will stop going up or will continue to go up. However, these upward moves are propelled by big money, not small Joe's off the street. The reason why Bitcoin is a very attractive alternative currency is probably due to its ability for big corrupted money aka Chinese bribe money to transfer internationally in secs w/o any governmental inspection or regulation.
     
  7. Chip N Sawbones

    Chip N Sawbones Ship's Carpenter

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    True, but practically any cryptocurrency can be used to transfer money internationally without inspection or regulation, and some do it much better than Bitcoin by having lower fees, faster transfers or greater anonymity. A $17,000 bitcoin doesn't work any better for transferring money from one place to another than 17,000 $1 bitcoins do. I initially bought bitcoin at around $350 because I could see it's value as a currency for worldwide money transfer and for facilitating the rapidly growing online markets in illegal drugs, but at this point it's nothing but a speculative bubble. I sold the last of mine today.
     
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  8. esob

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    My pick for 2018 (the year of the altcoin) is ADA. The whole crypto market is most definitely a bubble but there are always profits to be made during bubbles. Ripple, Neo and Monero will all continue to have great potential as well. My wildcard for 2018 is SALT, which is the token for salt lending, a firm that specializes in fiat loans secured with crypto collateral. 2018 is going to be a wild year for crypto for sure: #HODL
     
  9. Mman

    Mman Senior Member

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    The total market cap of Bitcoin is currently $256B. The total market cap of the Russell 3000 is something like $30 trillion. The market cap of global stocks is like $100 trillion. Bitcoin is tiny crumbs in the financial world. Gold has a total market cap of like $7 trillion. The US Bond market has about $31 trillion. The supply of bitcoins is limited and their blockchain technology is interesting. I find it unlikely that bitcoin holds value long term since it's use for transactions will decrease as the cost of those transactions increases and there is nothing inherently valuable to a bitcoin except the expectation that somebody else will want it in the future. The technology itself, however, could find better uses elsewhere.

    People should feel free to gamble and speculate with cryptocurrencies as they see fit, I just wouldn't pretend it is investing.
     
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  10. esob

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    The total crypto market cap is > 700 bn, which isn't too shabby considering its age (~ 7 yrs). BTC itself is dysfunctional because of fees and quite honestly the PoW model, however, if one of the altcoins successfully resolves the majority of the problems that are associated with cryptocurrency in general, it could very well compete with modern currency.
     
  11. slappy

    slappy Neuropsychiatrist
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    It's not an investment. It's speculation. Benjamin Graham wrote this: “An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory (or ‘adequate’) return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.”
     
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  12. Mman

    Mman Senior Member

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    Nobody is arguing that cryptocurrency isn't an interesting and possibly very useful thing going forward. But when people start picking and choosing one particular one, the odds are probably against it. Ultimately the most popular cryptocurrency 10 or 20 years from now will probably be one that does not exist yet and will be developed after watching the problems that current ones run into.
     
  13. fourandtwo

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    I too have had success in crypto. I think the blockchain technology is here to stay. It's a good time to invest, in BTC and in other coins. But as always, invest smartly. And the market is nothing but an transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient
     
  14. esob

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    I agree that the mainstay crypto is probably not around yet, but I also think it is quite viable to make a reasoned analysis of altcoins if you are familiar with the industry.
     
  15. Mman

    Mman Senior Member

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    people can feel free to make that analysis, they just shouldn't confuse currency speculation with investment
     
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  17. slappy

    slappy Neuropsychiatrist
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    Exactly.
     
  18. libertyyne

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    Ive got some tulips that I hear are the next big thing.
     
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  19. libertyyne

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    bitcoins are terrible as a currency with caps in how many transactions that can occur / second and the amount of energy that is required to keep the system humming along. I am not saying cryptocurrencies do not have a place or but bitcoin is likely not going to be "it" due to the mentioned limitations.
     
    #17 libertyyne, Feb 4, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2018
  20. esob

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    I agree completely, btc was merely a proof of concept and will never be a final product.
     
  21. BorntobeDO?

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    Haven't looked at this thread in awhile, but I have to give hats off to Chip, he recognized the insanity and got out. With more and more restrictions being placed on bitcoin by traditional banks and CC (won't allow you to purchase, or have to use certain 'exchanges' for taxs) I think its not going up anymore. The government/banks don't like competition.
     
  22. mauricekenter

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    I’m not sure any of the latest comments even understand superficially what bitcoin is. If you even mention the word tulip in the discussion you obviously have just heard the media talk about the “bubble,” which is laughable.

    Do your own research and examin the technology behind it, before just regurgitating something you heard from somewhere else.
     
  23. mauricekenter

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    Just remember that this stuff is all open source so any “coin” can implement any new technology. BTC is the OG and will almost surely be one of the few left standing when this “alt coin” bubble bursts.

    I also love the comparison to the dot com bubble, as if internet companies just went away and we don’t use that “internet thing” anymore. I’m pretty sure anyone in their right mind would have loved to invest in Apple or Google during the dot com bubble.

    Should you buy some crap coin with no development and no tech behind it? No. But simply using your verification bias and saying “see I told you the bubble would burst” shows your lack of knowledge in the actual space.
     
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  24. libertyyne

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    I am sure pets.com folks are absolutely euphoric from all the market beating returns they obtained from that "internet thing". Bitcoin's tech is flawed thats the problem. Plus the market is prone to gaming currently, and liquidity is also an issue. But it is your money. Good luck.
     
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  25. slappy

    slappy Neuropsychiatrist
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    Agreed. Also, tulip mania.
     
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  26. mauricekenter

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    No internet board discussion ever changed anyone’s mind, so I’m not going to try. The fact that you say it is not liquid is funny, because there are over a billion dollars a day traded in and out of BTC, seems pretty liquid to me. I’m always shocked by the number of people who want this stuff to fail for no other reason that just so that they were right because they didn’t put money into it. And again, you don’t even remotely understand the tech behind it by saying it’s flawed. Even if I pretend it is, it’s not like it doesn’t change. This isn’t just something that is put out there and no development continues. Blockchain is the future, but we are just at an interesting time because retail investors got in before institutional ones and therefore you see immature markets. When the big money moves in, you will need to relearn all that you “know” and learn what the real story is, not what biases media tells you.

    Groundbreaking early technology that will take years to mature doesn’t “get clicks.” “Tulip Mania” does....enough said
     
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  27. libertyyne

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    Liquidity in terms of wait times for transactions. I would hardly call 4 hours for confirmation liquid. Coupled and a maximum of 7 transactions per second and the transaction fees.

    But besides the point, You should be happy us rubes have no idea what the real story is.. more cheap bitcoin for you. I'm sure people said the same thing about lycos, myspace, and pets.com, I would hardly call any of them investments even though they were first movers into an interesting tech market.

    I just dont think it meets the definition of investment as provided earlier in this thread, speculation yes. But if I was to speculate I would be happier doing it in much more interesting things like distressed securities.

    You see dollars, I see tulips.
     
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  28. cpants

    cpants Member

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    Even if you believe in the viability of cryptocurrency as a way to carry out financial transactions, how could you possibly believe it is a legitimate investment that you could hold for the long term? Any growth in the price in bitcoin vs the dollar is related to an artificially short supply of bitcoin. It is impossible for it to have sustained growth against any world currency.

    Comparisons to the dot com bubble are false. While those companies may have been overvalued---they were still companies with profits, products, property, etc. Bitcoin has no assets or possible way it could continue to build value over time.
     
  29. mauricekenter

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    Not sure why you are saying it is impossible for it to grow against any world currency when there is a “artificially” limited supply versus other world currencies which we just keep printing. In fact, I would say it is the complete opposite. When the supply of something that is valued is capped, the price should drastically increase.

    Also let’s keep this conversion to just not about bitcoin. It’s easy for people, not well versed in the space, to think that bitcoin is the only thing here. When in fact even though it’s the first mover, we are talking about a technology which will integrate itself into a large part of our society.

    We are currently in the infancy of cryptoassets. While I do agree that most of these “coins” are **** and won’t last, I think most people underestimate the true power of this technology. If I was to choose between siding with people who follow the same old “only criminals use bitcoin, it’s slow, it’s expensive, etc” or follow thousands of brilliant developers who are improving this on a daily basis, I’ll pick the developers.

    What you have to realize (besides the fact that cash is used more by criminals and the fact that with the new tech released I just transferred $15k in BTC for $0.17 in under 30 mins) is this technology is here to stay and it is easily adaptable. You can’t just say because 1990 AOL is slow and dialup modems are crap that the internet won’t work.
     
  30. Direct Laryngoscopy

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    So much going on beneath the surface that most people here don't realize until its integrated into everyday use and they wonder how it got there. Blockchain is changing the way we are moving assets and information in a decentralized manner. Its still early (like the top of the 2nd inning) to get in, learn about about this new technology and build some wealth. Don't wait until the 9th inning.
     
  31. Mman

    Mman Senior Member

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    Perhaps you could explain what blockchain technology has to do with the value of a Bitcoin. While the Bitcoin network works via blockchain technology, there is nothing proprietary about that concept and it has nothing to do with the value of a Bitcoin (whatever that may be). Blockchain could be the greatest thing ever invented and a Bitcoin could still end up worth $0.

    To me the problem with bitcoin is that it is a terrible store of value and does not function like a currency and is unlikely to ever be widely accepted. It's value is 100% speculative. Throw in things like the growing energy usage and high transaction costs and it is quite likely to spiral down in value quickly IMHO. Vicious cycle once it starts losing value of less people wanting to mine it and transactions getting more difficult. But that's just my guess.

    People can buy it or not, just don't pretend like it gives you ownership of blockchain technology going forward. People compare it to "tulip mania" not because blockchain is like a tulip, but because it had a similar run up in price over time and might see a similar crash in price. People that don't understand what they are buying use rising price as evidence of the intelligence of their purchase. Then when it starts going down, they panic and sell and it drops like a rock.

    As for me, I get rich without investing in cryptocurrency so why take the risk?
     
    #29 Mman, Feb 16, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2018
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  32. Reality?

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    How do you get rich?
     
  33. libertyyne

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    Index funds and value investing with dollar cost averaging?
     
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  34. Mman

    Mman Senior Member

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    earning a high income, living below your means, maxing out things like 401K and IRA, and saving additional money each month.

    If cryptocurrencies ever function like an actual currency, perhaps I will use them instead of the AmEx.
     
  35. Reality?

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    That pretty much gets you to lower/middle class “rich” level after a lifetime of hard work and financial discipline. Not really rich rich.

    I do commend your hard work and financial discipline. I’m just stating things as they are.
     
  36. Mman

    Mman Senior Member

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    So if I retire with $30M I will be "lower/middle class rich"? I mean I probably won't get there, but that's probably because I'll be done working full time by 50.
     
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  37. mauricekenter

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    Perhaps you could explain what blockchain technology has to do with the value of a Bitcoin. While the Bitcoin network works via blockchain technology, there is nothing proprietary about that concept and it has nothing to do with the value of a Bitcoin (whatever that may be). Blockchain could be the greatest thing ever invented and a Bitcoin could still end up worth $0. I definitely understand what you are saying and I can see both sides of this story. The value of bitcoin comes from the people that believe in it as well the fact that it costs money to mine the currency therefore when people are using computational power as well as electricity to keep the network alive, it can add true value to the asset (I know this is the hardest thought hurdle to get over and we could debate the inherent value of gold, silver, the USD, etc...but I don't really want to beat that drum again). Does this mean it is worth $10,000, of course not, but at some point the value of the currency will either plummet or grow exponentially because of the decreasing block reward for the miners (sorry I know this is a bit technical). Also this original topic was on cryptocurrency and not bitcoin, and while I don't think bitcoin will ever be worth $0, there are plenty of other fish in this sea.

    To me the problem with bitcoin is that it is a terrible store of value and does not function like a currency and is unlikely to ever be widely accepted. I would love to know why you think it isn't a good store of value. I'm assuming because of the volatility. However, if you look at gold and silver as well as other world currencies, the volatility is terrible as well. Again the value can be argued to not be 100% speculative secondary to the amount of real world computational power and electricity it uses to keep the network running (which I don't like and is a whole other topic of conversation). It's value is 100% speculative. Throw in things like the growing energy usage and high transaction costs and it is quite likely to spiral down in value quickly IMHO. Vicious cycle once it starts losing value of less people wanting to mine it and transactions getting more difficult. But that's just my guess. As far as the transactional costs, this is already greatly reduced (just sent some a couple of days ago for 17 cents) and will be vastly improved both from a cost and speed standpoint with the new lightning network. *Again remember this stuff isn't static, the technology is dynamic and can be changes and tweaked.

    People can buy it or not, just don't pretend like it gives you ownership of blockchain technology going forward. I absolutely agree that you don't get ownership of blockchain (but that doesn't really make sense either. You don't get ownership of the internet because you invest in google). People compare it to "tulip mania" not because blockchain is like a tulip, but because it had a similar run up in price over time and might see a similar crash in price. People that don't understand what they are buying use rising price as evidence of the intelligence of their purchase. Then when it starts going down, they panic and sell and it drops like a rock. I agree that this can be a bubble, but so was the dot.com bubble and apple lost 95% of its value during the crash. However, if you were to hold on to it for the long run you would have made over 30,000% gain.

    As for me, I get rich without investing in cryptocurrency so why take the risk?
    I agree you shouldn't be doing this to get rich and I am not using it to just "get rich". I find it extremely interesting and use only 5% of my total portfolio for it. The rest is in index funds for retirement. I am an ER doctor, but it doesn't mean I can't have other ventures that I also use capital for that interest me.
     
  38. Mman

    Mman Senior Member

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    If you plotted the price fluctuation of bitcoin the last 2 years on the same axis as gold or silver, the gold and silver would look like a straight line. And keep in mind, I don't put any money in them either.

    I probably wouldn't be using a change in quoted stock price of what has probably been the most profitable publicly traded company on the planet the last 15 years as evidence of anything having to do with currency speculation which is what an "investment" in bitcoin is. Bitcoin will never have a profit and will never distribute dividends and will never have retained earnings used for growth.



    Bitcoin investment is purely currency speculation. It's just a spectacularly bad currency with massive short term fluctuations in value and is difficult to use to buy something which makes it kinda funny as an observer to watch people jump into. I find it particularly funny when they try to justify it as something beyond currency speculation.
     
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  39. Hanannar

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    I had lots of doubts on this topic, but for about 4 monts, I've been investing a lot in cryptocurrency
    The thing is that I started to use pos mining (Cryptonex one) and I get good profit plus CNX coin keeps increasing in price.
    Isn't it a good long-term investment? I really believe that future belongs to cryptoworld an the new technologies and personally I don't want to be cast aside.
     
  40. mauricekenter

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    It could be, but I doubt CNX will be around. Your goal should be taking your profits and either cashing out into USD or buying more BTC with it. Make sure you don’t end up in the red
     
  41. Hanannar

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    I still think that cryptonex is a good choice as cnx has increased more than 7 times in about 2-3 months.
     
  42. mauricekenter

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    So did bitconnect, Enron and tons of other easy examples. If bitcoin is speculative, cryptonex is vastly more speculative. Also if you look at the token holders on etherecan. 1 account holds 95% of all tokens in supply.....you better hope that account just doesn’t decide to dump their coins one day.
     
  43. Dr. Galazkiewicz

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    One thing to keep in mind...what do central banks hold on their balance sheets? Cryptos or metal?
     
  44. Dr. Galazkiewicz

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    Wow, only 40% still

     
  45. mauricekenter

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    Your argument for why bitcoin will fail is because central banks hold precious metals? I don't even know where to start with this. Also ICOs are dumb, 99% will fail and have no use case, which is not the case with bitcoin. These statements don't do anything to invalidate the argument that bitcoin has a future. Any other nonsensical arguments up your sleeve? Shall you just reply "tulips" and peace out?
     
  46. Mman

    Mman Senior Member

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    bitcoin? I don't think anybody knows whether it has a future or not. TBD
     
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  47. Dr. Galazkiewicz

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    You miss the point. It's not about cryptos failing. It's about how do central banks bail themselves out. At the end of the day, metal is a political asset. Remember FDR and Nixon.
     
  48. ThoracicGuy

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  49. Stroganoff

    Stroganoff Never give up.
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    Eh, pessimistic. I've changed my mind on abortion and firearms and many other topics, so I chuckle when people come in with the "I'm not gonna change your mind, and you're not gonna change my mind" mindset. :)

    I want altcoins to fail because I'm building a computer, and miners are buying up all the video cards. :rage:

    You're forgetting the inevitable scenario when a fiat currency ultimately collapses. Any form of money -- when valued in said collapsing fiat currency -- will have astronomical nominal value.
     
    #47 Stroganoff, Mar 7, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2018
  50. Stroganoff

    Stroganoff Never give up.
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    To address the OP literally, helllllz no are cryptocurrency trades considered "investing." They're way, way into speculative territory. And nobody knows if "now" is a good time, since nobody here has a crystal ball. I do wish I had ridden the BTC mining wave (or just bought and held) back in like 2010.
     
  51. Some people love ponzi schemes and fraud! Enjoy!
     
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  52. Mman

    Mman Senior Member

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    I find the lack of people posting about Bitcoin compared to a few months ago to be amusing. I suppose it has nothing to do with the value of BTC dropping under $7,000.
     

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