Is it HARDER to get into Med school in 2009-2010??

[Mountie]

Hey Folk:

Will it be harder to get into Med school this year? I just heard from someone that due to the economic depression, there are more people plan to return to school. I know Law school and probably MBA will be more competitive. How about Med school? Hope we are not the unluck group to face harsher situation since it is already hard and competitive enough.

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[Maygyver]

Well, it takes quite a lot of planning to decide to go to Medical school compared to just taking the GRE and applying to graduate school so I would suppose it won't see as much a jump as graduate school applications.

 

[Vihsadas]

This is better suited for the pre-allopathic forums. I'll move it there now.

 

[rama kandra]

This past cycle was the lowest # of applicants in six years. This is after a slow recession in the USA and the rule of thumb is that it takes about three years for a significant change in numbers to occur from a economic standpoint. ie- if this recession got bad in 2007 and stays this way, it may be 2010 before the cycle shows a big time jump.

However, with medicine you are required to be pre-med and take the MCAT. That will slow down the chances for the number to jump. BUT, I think the reason we have a six year low is because the cost of application is so high that only competitive applicants are in the pool.

So in sum: you will have a better chance numberwise, because the pool is smaller but it will be just as hard, because its the better number students who are fronting the cost of applications.

 

[ChubbyChaser]

With schools popping up all over the place and seats increasing, its hard to predict what will happen.

 

[rama kandra]

The # of seats are increasing by 20% by 2015, and its 2009 and we have seen a near 2,000 seat increase from 16000 (its been 16000 since the 80's) and now its around 18000. Good news for the USA I think, and bad news for outside school students like the Carib.

Residencies are not being increased, there are no new spots opening in programs, so that number is static. Now, if more med students are coming from within the USA, it will close out the Carib students. This could take a while, but I think there is a push to increase students within the US and to have more US students in residency.

 

[DrYoda]

The law school and business school enrollment pattern doesn't work with medical school so well because of all the required classes. If the recession causes an increase in applicants there will be a lag by at least a year.

Also, every year the current applicant group proclaims it the most competative year in history. Don't worry about such things and just focus on your MCAT and whatever else you need to prepare for the app season.

 

[RoyBasch]

Well, it takes quite a lot of planning to decide to go to Medical school compared to just taking the GRE and applying to graduate school so I would suppose it won't see as much a jump as graduate school applications.

Pretty much This.

I was asked the same question by a friend, but unlike business school or graduate school, it takes 2-3 years to get a medical school application ready. Except for a very small percentage of people who may be biomedical engineer-types and already have most of the requirements done and experiences that would make them competitive applicants, not many people can just take the MCAT and apply because times are tough.
-Roy

 

[Law2Doc]

The law school and business school enrollment pattern doesn't work with medical school so well because of all the required classes. If the recession causes an increase in applicants there will be a lag by at least a year....

Agreed. I'd say the lag is more like 3-4 years due to all the prereqs, ECs. So in a few years you will likely see an increase in med school applcants due to a tight economy. You will see an increase in law enrollment this coming year. Business school probably will see a decline because most people in business schools' are sent their by their employers and in a tight economy you won't see employers paying for their executives to get MBAs. It is a foolhardy path to take for folks not already in business because an MBA is not a degree that gets you a job, it is a career enhancer. Meaning you need to already have a career to enhance. So no, I'd say it doesn't work the same way at all.

 

[MedicFL]

Residencies are not being increased, there are no new spots opening in programs, so that number is static. Now, if more med students are coming from within the USA, it will close out the Carib students. This could take a while, but I think there is a push to increase students within the US and to have more US students in residency.[/quote]


There are new programs and programs are getting larger here in orlando ORMC in there EM program added two seats last year and FL hospital opened up a new ER program and this is in just my field. I know other programs has expanded, so if Orlando is doing this I am sure there are more programs that are new and or expanding...

 

[rama kandra]

I believe those expansions are also in line with the expanding plan for new schools and I have read somewhere in AAMC that they are keeping residency numbers pretty much the same overall. I'm not sure where that data comes from but I was under the impression that med students seats are increasing while residency spots are staying fairly static.

Also, with open residency slots each year, what is the point of adding more positions?

 

[Narmerguy]

Yes but let's not also forget the people who could have been competitive applicants but that previously elected not to apply to medical school. Because of the economy and because of the attractiveness of a stable income, many may now decide to pursue (or do the little extra necessary to be competitive to pursue) medical school.

 

[Food]

And you'll be dealing with a decent number of re-applicants...

 

[RoadRunner17]

It's already hard enough as it is to get into medical school. Having it be even harder isn't going to make any significant tangible differences in your application success. If you're good enough to get in, you're good enough to get in.

There are re-applicants every year, and there are people who take a year off after graduating to strengthen their application before applying. Every year. What makes this year so special?

 

[ChubbyChaser]

Mine I hope they dont increase residency slots.....The less competition the better

 

[Tiare208]

Agreed. I'd say the lag is more like 3-4 years due to all the prereqs, ECs. So in a few years you will likely see an increase in med school applcants due to a tight economy. You will see an increase in law enrollment this coming year. Business school probably will see a decline because most people in business schools' are sent their by their employers and in a tight economy you won't see employers paying for their executives to get MBAs. It is a foolhardy path to take for folks not already in business because an MBA is not a degree that gets you a job, it is a career enhancer. Meaning you need to already have a career to enhance. So no, I'd say it doesn't work the same way at all.

Actually, if you get everything together and do a post-bacc program, it only takes 1 year. It IS possible, although I doubt that it will really affect the pool for a couple years.

 

[LizzyM]

The number of PGY1 (post graduate year #1) residency slots exceeds the annual number of US graduates. The excess PGY1 slots are filled by IMGs (international medical graduates). These might include Carrib grads but many are foreign nationals who attended medical schools in their home countries.

There might be a bump in applications if people who might have been tempted away by a job in i-banking, consulting, the pharmaceutical industry, or another big money opportunity that just isn't there this year in this economy(traditional students, what is recruiting like on your campuses this year?). Likewise, applicants who did the pre-med pre-reqs and then decided on industry rather than med school may be unemployed and decide to go back to school. I saw this after the dot-com bubble burst.

 

[Westernhealer]

I dont understand how the number of applicants are decreasing while the average stats increase. Are only the lower percentile dropping out?

 

[LizzyM]

I dont understand how the number of applicants are decreasing while the average stats increase. Are only the lower percentile dropping out?

Very likely.

It goes something like this: wake up, smell coffee, feel less sure about spending $$$$ on the outside chance of getting in.

 

[batman1983]

The number of PGY1 (post graduate year #1) residency slots exceeds the annual number of US graduates. The excess PGY1 slots are filled by IMGs (international medical graduates). These might include Carrib grads but many are foreign nationals who attended medical schools in their home countries.

There might be a bump in applications if people who might have been tempted away by a job in i-banking, consulting, the pharmaceutical industry, or another big money opportunity that just isn't there this year in this economy(traditional students, what is recruiting like on your campuses this year?). Likewise, applicants who did the pre-med pre-reqs and then decided on industry rather than med school may be unemployed and decide to go back to school. I saw this after the dot-com bubble burst.

I hear that recruiting is getting hit hard at the undergrad and grad levels. I have buddies with strong grades/profiles that are coming out of top tier undergrad, law, and mba schools with no job offers. My company recently cut the number of entry level analyst and associate level banking positions that they originally intended to hire.

 

[LizzyM]

I hear that recruiting is getting hit hard at the undergrad and grad levels. I have buddies with strong grades/profiles that are coming out of top tier undergrad, law, and mba schools with no job offers. My company recently cut the number of entry level analyst and associate level banking positions that they originally intended to hire.

My point exactly! If these top-tier guys have the pre-reqs lined up they will apply this summer, even if it means taking a gap year.

 

[dynezxice]

I dont understand how the number of applicants are decreasing while the average stats increase. Are only the lower percentile dropping out?

While it may be true that perhaps the number of people who think they don't stand a chance applying to med schools has dropped out, also keep in mind that there are "leftovers" with high GPAs and MCAT scores from previous cycles who took lag years or are reapplicants, effectively boosting the average GPA and MCAT scores.

 

[rocketbooster]

While it may be true that perhaps the number of people who think they don't stand a chance applying to med schools has dropped out, also keep in mind that there are "leftovers" with high GPAs and MCAT scores from previous cycles who took lag years or are reapplicants, effectively boosting the average GPA and MCAT scores.

as someone already said above, this is the case every year. nothing new.

 

[WeAreNotRobots]

I dont understand how the number of applicants are decreasing while the average stats increase. Are only the lower percentile dropping out?

not necessarily, but you're on the right track.

applicants from each percentile could be "dropping out" as the competitiveness of the entire applicant pool is increasing. there is an upper limit to how high the average stats can go, and the numbers are approaching it.

simplified example: assume that applicants' stats fit a normal distribution (call this year 1); now think of a distribution with negative skew, where the bulk of observations occur to the right, with higher numbers (call this year 2). something to this effect could be happening.

 

[Med Addict]

I'm gonna simplify this argument for you guys right now: "If you didn't have the motivation, passion, and drive before, Medical School isn't gonna happen for you no matter how bad it gets."

People are generally set in their old ways and they are afraid of changes, they don't like moving, changing jobs, changing careers, etc. Even if the next great depression came along, there won't be that big of a change in the applicants for medical school. Its not like all the gangbangers walking through high school metal detectors are going to find the sudden drive to become doctors.

Plus you have to factor in all the people who may not become doctors, but will choose other careers in the health professions, as this whole field is growing in general: audiology, optomotry, nursing, PA, pharmacy, dentistry, etc.

 

[airplanes]

I'm gonna simplify this argument for you guys right now: "If you didn't have the motivation, passion, and drive before, Medical School isn't gonna happen for you no matter how bad it gets."

People are generally set in their old ways and they are afraid of changes, they don't like moving, changing jobs, changing careers, etc. Even if the next great depression came along, there won't be that big of a change in the applicants for medical school. Its not like all the gangbangers walking through high school metal detectors are going to find the sudden drive to become doctors.

Plus you have to factor in all the people who may not become doctors, but will choose other careers in the health professions, as this whole field is growing in general: audiology, optomotry, nursing, PA, pharmacy, dentistry, etc.

How does that take into account successful non-trads?

 

[niranjan162]

I'm gonna simplify this argument for you guys right now: "If you didn't have the motivation, passion, and drive before, Medical School isn't gonna happen for you no matter how bad it gets."

People are generally set in their old ways and they are afraid of changes, they don't like moving, changing jobs, changing careers, etc. Even if the next great depression came along, there won't be that big of a change in the applicants for medical school. Its not like all the gangbangers walking through high school metal detectors are going to find the sudden drive to become doctors.

Plus you have to factor in all the people who may not become doctors, but will choose other careers in the health professions, as this whole field is growing in general: audiology, optomotry, nursing, PA, pharmacy, dentistry, etc.

Nobodys talking bout gangbangers or non trads. Its mostly the people ambitious undergrads who wouldve gone into business or something will now look at medicine and other careers. Also it doesnt matter what the state of the economy competition will increase every year as more and more people goto college, for every job

 

[Med Addict]

How does that take into account successful non-trads?

Yeah, I have to agree with you that there maybe talented individuals with the scores to get into medicine that will change their minds about Law and Business, so I guess in 3-4 years we may see a spike in admissions. But then again, those students are seniors in high school or freshmen in college, so for the following 3-4 years, there won't be a large spike in applicants.

But in 3-4 years, the economy may turn around again. So we may see a shift again. Economic forecasters say that things may turn around by the end of this year (but who knows).

 

[derArzt]

I agree that this next year the effects won't be huge.
I personally can't wait to apply 2009-10. Let the games begin!

 

[LizzyM]

How does that take into account successful non-trads?

There is often a 2 yr lag for non-trads. I'd expect that crowd to begin applying in June 2010 for admission in 2011, just as we began to see the post-9/11 applicants in 2003. Job dries up, run into an informal post-bac and pop out the other side. Frankly, I don't see that group as being huge -- has anyone ever seen admission stats broken out for trad & non-trad?

 

[batman1983]

I recently interviewed at UAB, and the Dean told me that I was the fifth bond trader to interview at the school within the past couple months. And here I was thinking that I was "special" . Either UAB really likes traders or a lot of traders/IB ppl are jumping ship to medicine. Thus, as mentioned by others, the poor economy will result in a slight increase in medical school admissions difficulty in the next couple yrs as ppl from the professional and graduate level space decided to do medicine. I can only speak from my experience, but I knew a decent number of qualified premeds and bio majors in college that went into banking, consulting, and pharma, instead of applying to medical school. Some of these ppl had even taken the MCAT and had everything ready to go in case they decided later in life that medicine was their goal. Thus, these ppl may be applying to medical school or will within the next 1-2yrs.

In addition, many ppl still in school will probably start considering medical school, which may result in an increase of med school applicants in the next 2-4yrs.

 

[majahops]

I'm waiting on the huge BOOM in medical school applications I foresee happening as a direct result of the popularization of the profession through the many prime time TV shows (e.g. Scrubs, House, Grey's Anatomy).

There is often a 2 yr lag for non-trads. I'd expect that crowd to begin applying in June 2010 for admission in 2011, just as we began to see the post-9/11 applicants in 2003. Job dries up, run into an informal post-bac and pop out the other side. Frankly, I don't see that group as being huge -- has anyone ever seen admission stats broken out for trad & non-trad?

 

[RoadRunner17]

I'd hazard a guess that the increases you see in applicants is mostly due to the possibility that the number of kids born each year has been creeping up for the last 20 or so years.. sure, the other stuff like non-trads, economy, etc. play a factor, but if there are more people being born 20 years ago than there were 22 years ago, then that could certainly play a factor.

 

[LizzyM]

I'm waiting on the huge BOOM in medical school applications I foresee happening as a direct result of the popularization of the profession through the many prime time TV shows (e.g. Scrubs, House, Grey's Anatomy).

There have always been popular TV shows about medicine:

ER
Chicago Hope (killed off by ER, they debuted together)
Northern Exposure (NY doc assigned to Alaska to pay back school loans)
Doogie Howser
St. Elsewhere
M*A*S*H
Quincy M.E.
Marcus Welby, MD
Medical Center
Ben Casey
Dr. Kildare (started as a radio show in 1949 and prior to that in movies)

I wouldn't expect the latest shows to be more inspirational than the ones we watched in the 60s,70s, 80s, 90s.

 

[Vihsadas]

There have always been popular TV shows about medicine:

ER
Chicago Hope (killed off by ER, they debuted together)
Northern Exposure (NY doc assigned to Alaska to pay back school loans)
Doogie Howser
St. Elsewhere
M*A*S*H
Quincy M.E.
Marcus Welby, MD
Medical Center
Ben Casey
Dr. Kildare (started as a radio show in 1949 and prior to that in movies)

I wouldn't expect the latest shows to be more inspirational than the ones we watched in the 60s,70s, 80s, 90s.

Oh Neil Patrick Harris. How the mighty have fallen to bit-roles in the latest Harold and Kumar movies. You were once my favorite.

 

[batman1983]

What are you talking about? Harold and Kumar saved NPH.

 

[Vihsadas]

What are you talking about? Harold and Kumar saved NPH.

It was a joke.

 

[NonTradMed]

Intersting tidbit about law school, I heard this is the first recession year they are NOT seeing a spike in application (as based on # taking LSAT). It may due to the idea, no spreading, that one can't waltz into a random law school and expect six figures coming out. I dunno, time will tell.

As for med school, I forsee a small spike in a year or two due to the bad economy. I also think the fallout from Wall Street will see an decrease in top students going towards the Wall Street route (hence making more applicants for law/med/etc). But who knows? If the economy does pick up by late this year, it will be same old same old. We will continue to see a brain drain to ibanking rather than engineering, medicine, or any other thinking profession that pays substantially less than business.

 

[PeepshowJohnny]

I dont understand how the number of applicants are decreasing while the average stats increase. Are only the lower percentile dropping out?

This is what happened at our school this year. The total number of applicants dropped but the % of applicants who met our "cutoffs" for initial interview based on MCAT and GPA was actually up.

 

[Law2Doc]

There have always been popular TV shows about medicine:

ER
Chicago Hope (killed off by ER, they debuted together)
Northern Exposure (NY doc assigned to Alaska to pay back school loans)
Doogie Howser
St. Elsewhere
M*A*S*H
Quincy M.E.
Marcus Welby, MD
Medical Center
Ben Casey
Dr. Kildare (started as a radio show in 1949 and prior to that in movies)

I wouldn't expect the latest shows to be more inspirational than the ones we watched in the 60s,70s, 80s, 90s.

While there have been many over time, there have never been as many on the air during prime time at the same time. Right now you have Grey's, ER, Scrubs, House, Private Practice, Nip Tuck, Dr. 90210, etc. That likely has more of effect than many of the shows you listed above which didn't have much medical competition when the aired.

 

[Law2Doc]

Actually, if you get everything together and do a post-bacc program, it only takes 1 year. It IS possible, although I doubt that it will really affect the pool for a couple years.

Most of the formal postbac programs are two years plus a "glide" year. Thus the 3 year ramp up is far more common than trying to pack it all into a year.

 

[Tiare208]

Interesting. All the ones I applied to were 1 year so I assumed that was the norm. Then again, those were the ones I was interested in.

 

[LizzyM]

Back in the day when we had just one or two doctor shows we had only 5 or 6 channels to choose from so the "share" (proportion of viewers watching that show) was rather large.

 

[majahops]

But I feel like the more recent ones make "being a doctor" seem more cool, young and "hip" than the older ones did. I can't explain it, but I definitely anticipate this boom. I agree with you on 99.9% of things, Lizzy, but I've had a strong sense about this one for a while.

Also, the diversity of characters playing doctors on TV is now much greater. You've got black doctors, latin doctors, croatian doctors... The shows today are more likely to make a kid think "hey, *I* can be a doctor too!"

No? Maybe I just like to make random predictions. Hmmm. I'll have to think more on this one.

There have always been popular TV shows about medicine:

ER
Chicago Hope (killed off by ER, they debuted together)
Northern Exposure (NY doc assigned to Alaska to pay back school loans)
Doogie Howser
St. Elsewhere
M*A*S*H
Quincy M.E.
Marcus Welby, MD
Medical Center
Ben Casey
Dr. Kildare (started as a radio show in 1949 and prior to that in movies)

I wouldn't expect the latest shows to be more inspirational than the ones we watched in the 60s,70s, 80s, 90s.

 

[LizzyM]

But I feel like the more recent ones make "being a doctor" seem more cool, young and "hip" than the older ones did. I can't explain it, but I definitely anticipate this boom. I agree with you on 99.9% of things, Lizzy, but I've had a strong sense about this one for a while.

Also, the diversity of characters playing doctors on TV is now much greater. You've got black doctors, latin doctors, croatian doctors... The shows today are more likely to make a kid think "hey, *I* can be a doctor too!"

No? Maybe I just like to make random predictions. Hmmm. I'll have to think more on this one.

Back in the day, only white boys were really welcome in med school so it wasn't as much as an issue (there were a few token women and other URM -- with women being URM at the time) ... and in the baby boom years there were plenty of guys who wanted to go to medical school (I think that 1975 was a peak year for appies back then).

And there was no one more young, hip and handsome than Chad Everett as Dr. Joe Gannon in Medical Center (1969-1976).

 

[PremedIowa]

And there was no one more young, hip and handsome than Chad Everett as Dr. Joe Gannon in Medical Center (1969-1976).

I suddenly feel younger