Lethal Downward GPA Trend?

[unaccpted]

I have a pretty weird GPA trend. How worried should I be right now? My cGPA is 3.66; sGPA is 3.62; MCAT: 518. My senior year of college, I started working and essentially got all Bs in my upper div bio courses (no Cs).

Freshman: cGPA: 3.09; sGPA: 3.44

Sophomore: cGPA: 3.76; sGPA: 3.87

Junior: cGPA: 3.88; sGPA: 3.81

Senior: cGPA: 3.62; sGPA: 3.08

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[CavsFan2016]

Dude you're being neurotic. You are still perfectly fine for MD schools across the country. Sometimes, life happens - admission committee member's know this. If they happen to bring up the fact that your grades dipped a bit senior year (I doubt they will) you can just explain the situation and they will understand.

You scored a 518 on the MCAT anyway. Please don't be that guy.

 

[libertyyne]

You are overthinking it. Apply to schools where your gpa is above the 10th percentile and all your state schools and you should be fine. I have very similar stats, mcat , trends and I did ok.

 

[UberUdder09]

When you really look at it..

But then again..

 

[unaccpted]

Hi guys, thanks for your reassurance. Sorry. I honestly wouldn't have sweated it too much but I saw in some other threads where @Goro said that such a drop (3.8 -> 3.1) was lethal at his school.

 

[libertyyne]

Hi guys, thanks for your reassurance. Sorry. I honestly wouldn't have sweated it too much but I saw in some other threads where @Goro said that such a drop (3.8 -> 3.1) was lethal at his school.

yeah, but a 518 at his school is also enough to bring you back to life.

 

[Goro]

We have rejected people with grade trends like OP's.

My advice to OP is apply warts and all, and see how the app cycle shakes out.

But always have a Plan B

yeah, but a 518 at his school is also enough to bring you back to life.

 

[Lucca]

518, 3.6 is going to do well. I'd be worried if the gpa drop was steeper.

 

[mwsapphire]

This thread freaked meowout

 

[libertyyne]

81% of applicants with these stats historically have obtained an acceptance. the other 20% probably had terrible EC's , Red flags, Or interviewed extremely poorly, bad timing, bad school list.

Only~ 3% of mcat takers have scores higher than a 518. People with 2.8-3.2 gpa with that mcat score have historically obtained an acceptance 40% of the time. You are fine OP.

 

[cactusman]

This thread freaked meowout

Starting to suspect your avatar isn't a stock photo, it's a portrait of you.

 

[Lawpy]

This thread freaked meowout

Starting to suspect your avatar isn't a stock photo, it's a portrait of you.

 

[Goro]

OR downward grade trends. Stats aren't everything. The entire app is.
But if you don't believe me, let's call in some more experts!
@LizzyM
@gyngyn
@Med Ed
@mimelim

81% of applicants with these stats historically have obtained an acceptance. the other 20% probably had terrible EC's , Red flags, Or interviewed extremely poorly, bad timing, bad school list.

Only~ 3% of mcat takers have scores higher than a 518. People with 2.8-3.2 gpa with that mcat score have historically obtained an acceptance 40% of the time. You are fine OP.

 

[libertyyne]

OR downward grade trends. Stats aren't everything. The entire app is.

I dont disagree, nothing is certain.However, Looking at the raw numbers 3.6 518 with a limited downward trend is not going to keep OP out of MD schools.

 

[Lawpy]

OR downward grade trends. Stats aren't everything. The entire app is.
But if you don't believe me, let's call in some more experts!
@LizzyM
@gyngyn
@Med Ed
@mimelim

? are downward grade trends truly lethal? if i went from a 4.0 -> 3.5 -> 3.2 -> 3.0 but I also scored a 525 on the MCAT and have very strong ECs/narrative/essays/letters etc., will the downward GPA trend hurt me? also assume the downward grade trend is only cGPA and my sGPA was somehow consistently above 3.8+ (so i was messing up a lot on non-science courses).

 

[Goro]

You are thinking that the 525 MCAT makes one hot ****. The downward trend telegraphs otherwise; that you will melt in medical school. Being a good test taker on a single day after months of prep means nothing if you can't handle a flood of info in rigorous courses (if the sGPA went down) OR that you're lazy and complacent and content to skate your way through life....which is what the downward cGPA trend would signify.

My best OMSIIs right now are finishing up their preclinical work, and they're not skating. They're still making As when they could easily goof off and make Cs and still finish strongly.

So stop being so obsessed with single or dual metrics, or extreme outlier hypotheticals. Here's a reality: at my school, we have rejected people like OP.

? are downward grade trends truly lethal? if i went from a 4.0 -> 3.5 -> 3.2 -> 3.0 but I also scored a 525 on the MCAT and have very strong ECs/narrative/essays/letters etc., will the downward GPA trend hurt me? also assume the downward grade trend is only cGPA and my sGPA was somehow consistently above 3.8+ (so i was messing up a lot on non-science courses).

 

[libertyyne]

? are downward grade trends truly lethal? if i went from a 4.0 -> 3.5 -> 3.2 -> 3.0 but I also scored a 525 on the MCAT and have very strong ECs/narrative/essays/letters etc., will the downward GPA trend hurt me? also assume the downward grade trend is only cGPA and my sGPA was somehow consistently above 3.8+ (so i was messing up a lot on non-science courses).

I am obviously just a premed so my analysis is to be taken with a grain of salt, no where in the academic literature that I have seen that GPA trending is better predictor of medical school performance compared to the MCAT. I can only assume that adcoms trust this research because of continued reliance upon it to make admission decisions.

https://www.aamc.org/download/410078/data/mcatacademicmedicinearticles.pdf
The importance placed on the MCAT by itself can also be gleaned by looking at the Applicant/acceptee mcat gpa grid where the highest mcat scores/ lower gpa applicants gain admission at a higher percentage compared to the lowest mcat/higher gpa applicants.

 

[Lawpy]

You are thinking that the 525 MCAT makes one hot ****. The downward trend telegraphs otherwise; that you will melt in medical school. Being a good test taker on a single day after months of prep means nothing if you can't handle a flood of info in rigorous courses (if the sGPA went down) OR that you're lazy and complacent and content to skate your way through life....which is what the downward cGPA trend would signify.

My best OMSIIs right now are finishing up their preclinical work, and they're not skating. They're still making As when they could easily goof off and make Cs and still finish strongly.

So stop being so obsessed with single or dual metrics, or extreme outlier hypotheticals. Here's a reality: at my school, we have rejected people like OP.

i don't think the scenario i presented is far from reality. i saw in the WAMC trends of people undergoing similar problems because they graduated with really difficult humanities degrees where stingy professors evaluate them so subjectively and give students B's and C's if their work isn't great. it can be really difficult to get A's in upper level philosophy and literature courses, but easier to get A's in upper level science courses where there is more objective grading. due to developing strong critical thinking skills in difficult humanities majors, the applicants demonstrate that by doing well in the MCAT.

i was thinking with good science GPA and good MCAT score, the applicant shows competence to do well in medical school despite their collapsing performance in non-science courses. Strong ECs are added as a default to isolate the impact of grade trends alone.

but i have no idea, and adcoms can somehow view poor performance in non-science courses to be a major problem and indicative of poor performance in medical school.

 

[unaccpted]

What would I have to raise my sGPA to in order to hedge my bets? I'm willing to work my ass off this last quarter to get it to 3.4+ but I'm still not sure that wouldn't constitute a downward trend.

 

[libertyyne]

What would I have to raise my sGPA to in order to hedge my bets? I'm willing to work my ass off this last quarter to get it to 3.4+ but I'm still not sure that wouldn't constitute a downward trend.

a few semesters of 4.0 wouldnt hurt.

 

[unaccpted]

a few semesters of 4.0 wouldnt hurt.

I have 1 quarter left until I graduate so, unfortunately, my best case scenario is my last quarter being a 4.0 unless I do a post-bacc.

 

[Lawpy]

I am obviously just a premed so my analysis is to be taken with a grain of salt, no where in the academic literature that I have seen that GPA trending is better predictor of medical school performance compared to the MCAT. I can only assume that adcoms trust this research because of continued reliance upon it to make admission decisions.
View attachment 216917
https://www.aamc.org/download/410078/data/mcatacademicmedicinearticles.pdf
The importance placed on the MCAT by itself can also be gleaned by looking at the Applicant/acceptee mcat gpa grid where the highest mcat scores/ lower gpa applicants gain admission at a higher percentage compared to the lowest mcat/higher gpa applicants.

The 2013 AAMC Survey shows science GPA > total MCAT score > grade trends > cumulative GPA >>> all other/non-science GPA. Same is seen in 2015 AAMC Survey.

If my downward trend is entirely due to getting B's and B-'s in non-science courses and yet I have a good science GPA and good MCAT score, how does my downward trend show that I can't handle the medical school curriculum? Especially since non-science GPA is only weakly important? And even for some reason it does, should I take a postbacc filled with non-science courses?

I understand downward trends in science courses are a bad thing and a red flag. That makes sense. I just don't understand how downward trends in non-science courses coupled with a very strong science GPA are a red flag.

 

[Goro]

It says something about attitude. I agree that if you maintain the strong performance in the science courses will be a saving grace, but you still have to consider that med schools get tons of apps from good candidates who don't have downward GPA trends of any kind, or have massive upward GPA trends. Again, stop focusing, moth-like, at the sun.

The situation also is very different from the real life case of the OP. So enough with hypotheticals.

The 2013 AAMC Survey shows science GPA > total MCAT score > grade trends > cumulative GPA >>> all other/non-science GPA. Same is seen in 2015 AAMC Survey.

If my downward trend is entirely due to getting B's and B-'s in non-science courses and yet I have a good science GPA and good MCAT score, how does my downward trend show that I can't handle the medical school curriculum? Especially since non-science GPA is only weakly important? And even for some reason it does, should I take a postbacc filled with non-science courses?

I understand downward trends in science courses are a bad thing and a red flag. That makes sense. I just don't understand how downward trends in non-science courses coupled with a very strong science GPA are a red flag.

 

[Lawpy]

It says something about attitude. I agree that if you maintain the strong performance in the science courses will be a saving grace, but you still have to consider that med schools get tons of apps from good candidates who don't have downward GPA trends of any kind, or have massive upward GPA trends. Again, stop focusing, moth-like, at the sun.

The situation also is very different from the real life case of the OP. So enough with hypotheticals.

okay that makes sense. thanks! and yeah, in OP's case, the downward trend in sciences is pretty bad.

 

[unaccpted]

I think it just goes to show how near-perfect you have to be for the medical school process if what Goro says is true. I maintained a competitive sGPA for most of my college career only to have 3 Bs and 1 B+ in my senior year potentially sink my application .

 

[mwsapphire]

Starting to suspect your avatar isn't a stock photo, it's a portrait of you.

I was just being silly!
In all seriousness, having an excellant gpa but screwing it up in the end really does scare me. Upper level classes are obviously harder, but one of my classmates had great grades before he got a C in biochem during his spring semester, along with mostly B's in upper level sciences, and is worried about applying to med school this coming cycle.

 

[mwsapphire]

It says something about attitude. I agree that if you maintain the strong performance in the science courses will be a saving grace, but you still have to consider that med schools get tons of apps from good candidates who don't have downward GPA trends of any kind, or have massive upward GPA trends. Again, stop focusing, moth-like, at the sun.

The situation also is very different from the real life case of the OP. So enough with hypotheticals.

What about , say , a strong gpa, with an upward trend, but one low grade in a non-science class towards the end. Like, your last semester , you make mostly A's in upper div science but one C or something in a non science class, even when most of your non science classes were A's? Maybe you took an upper level philosophy class like Lawper mentioned? Would that be viewed the same way?
I'm serious- sometimes you take what looks like an interesting elective and its much harder than it looks, but you're a curious nerd who wanted to try it anyway.
Also, DO schools have letter grades? Like, A,B,C?

 

[Goro]

I'm getting a little tired of hypotheticals.

Grading systems will vary between schools. Off hand, I don't know of any that use P/F though.

What about , say , a strong gpa, with an upward trend, but one low grade in a non-science class towards the end. Like, your last semester , you make mostly A's in upper div science but one C or something in a non science class, even when most of your non science classes were A's? Maybe you took an upper level philosophy class like Lawper mentioned? Would that be viewed the same way?
I'm serious- sometimes you take what looks like an interesting elective and its much harder than it looks, but you're a curious nerd who wanted to try it anyway.
Also, DO schools have letter grades? Like, A,B,C?

 

[CavsFan2016]

I think it just goes to show how near-perfect you have to be for the medical school process if what Goro says is true. I maintained a competitive sGPA for most of my college career only to have 3 Bs and 1 B+ in my senior year potentially sink my application .

You don't need to be dramatic. All @Goro is saying is that the downward trend in your GPA is not going to do you any favors. Did you expect your downward grade trend to be a good thing?

The reality is that we are all imperfect human beings, and almost everyones application is going to reflect that in some way. There are few, if any, applicants who apply and say "there is absolutely nothing I would change about my application". We all wish we did slightly better in that one course sophomore year, had a few more hours of shadowing, would have had a better response to that interview question, etc. If you constantly dwell on your imperfections, nothing good will come of it.

Long story short: the B's in upper level science courses senior year are not going to help you (obviously), but they are in no way going to sink you at every MD and DO school you apply to (also a rather obvious point). Apply broadly with a well-rounded list of schools, do the best you can during your interviews, and good things will come your way. There are many MANY other applicants who would die to have a 3.6 GPA and a 518 MCAT score when they apply for medical school.

 

[unaccpted]

You don't need to be dramatic. All @Goro is saying is that the downward trend in your GPA is not going to do you any favors. Did you expect your downward grade trend to be a good thing?

The reality is that we are all imperfect human beings, and almost everyones application is going to reflect that in some way. There are few, if any, applicants who apply and say "there is absolutely nothing I would change about my application". We all wish we did slightly better in that one course sophomore year, had a few more hours of shadowing, would have had a better response to that interview question, etc. If you constantly dwell on your imperfections, nothing good will come of it.

Long story short: the B's in upper level science courses senior year are not going to help you (obviously), but they are in no way going to sink you at every MD and DO school you apply to (also a rather obvious point). Apply broadly with a well-rounded list of schools, do the best you can during your interviews, and good things will come your way. There are many MANY other applicants who would die to have a 3.6 GPA and a 518 MCAT score when they apply for medical school.

Goro did lump a downward trend together with "terrible EC's , Red flags, Or interviewed extremely poorly, bad timing, bad school list". This is the only reason that I'm a bit doom and gloom about it. I understand I still have a shot but like all of the other red flags up there, the downward trend will have a significant negative impact on my application.

 

[Goro]

Again, let's see how the app cycle goers and check in next year. In the mean time, take another semester's worth of classes, and ace them as per your old self.

Do not overextend yourself, and more importantly, make good choices.

Goro did lump a downward trend together with "terrible EC's , Red flags, Or interviewed extremely poorly, bad timing, bad school list". This is the only reason that I'm a bit doom and gloom about it. I understand I still have a shot but like all of the other red flags up there, the downward trend will have a significant negative impact on my application.

 

[unaccpted]

Again, let's see how the app cycle goers and check in next year. In the mean time, take another semester's worth of classes, and ace them as per your old self.

Do not overextend yourself, and more importantly, make good choices.

Would you recommend I apply mainly low-mid tier?

 

[libertyyne]

Would you recommend I apply mainly low-mid tier?

Create a WAMC and I will generate a list for you.

 

[Goro]

Create a WAMC and I will generate a list for you.

This

 

[Chidori_Nagashi]

I have a pretty weird GPA trend. How worried should I be right now? My cGPA is 3.66; sGPA is 3.62; MCAT: 518. My senior year of college, I started working and essentially got all Bs in my upper div bio courses (no Cs).

Freshman: cGPA: 3.09; sGPA: 3.44

Sophomore: cGPA: 3.76; sGPA: 3.87

Junior: cGPA: 3.88; sGPA: 3.81

Senior: cGPA: 3.62; sGPA: 3.08

Out of curiosity, how did the cycle turn out for you?

 

[Goro]

Out of curiosity, how did the cycle turn out for you?

OP hasn't been seen since 2018, but reported having two accepts

 

[Chidori_Nagashi]

OP hasn't been seen since 2018, but reported having two accepts

Thanks. I am having a similar issue and would like your input, if that's ok. I'm a graduating senior taking planning to take at least one gap year, and I'm worried that the progression of my GPA would be considered a downward trend:


Freshman: cGPA: 3.17; sGPA: 2.5

Sophomore: cGPA: 3.57; sGPA: 3.16

Junior: cGPA: 3.8; sGPA: 3.67

Senior: cGPA: 3.56; sGPA: 3.48

Overall cGPA: 3.54

 

[libertyyne]

Thanks. I am having a similar issue and would like your input, if that's ok. I'm a graduating senior taking planning to take at least one gap year, and I'm worried that the progression of my GPA would be considered a downward trend:


Freshman: cGPA: 3.17; sGPA: 2.5

Sophomore: cGPA: 3.57; sGPA: 3.16

Junior: cGPA: 3.8; sGPA: 3.67

Senior: cGPA: 3.56; sGPA: 3.48

Overall cGPA: 3.54

what is you csGPA, and mcat. Trend doesnt look great, but this wont keep you out of medical school.

 

[Chidori_Nagashi]

what is you csGPA, and mcat. Trend doesnt look great, but this wont keep you out of medical school.

My cumulative sGPA is lower, at 3.32. I have not yet taken the MCAT, which is why I didn't make an initial post. I know I need to achieve a stellar score to be in contention for both MD and DO schools.

 

[libertyyne]

My cumulative sGPA is lower, at 3.32. I have not yet taken the MCAT, which is why I didn't make an initial post. I know I need to achieve a stellar score to be in contention for both MD and DO schools.

cant really say anything besides that your gpa does not exclude you from matriculation, but is not going to get you into harvard either. Need an mcat for a real assessment.

 

[Goro]

My cumulative sGPA is lower, at 3.32. I have not yet taken the MCAT, which is why I didn't make an initial post. I know I need to achieve a stellar score to be in contention for both MD and DO schools.

That sGPA will be lethal for MD, and high MCAT doesn't remediate a weak MD...it just accentuates the disparity.

 

[libertyyne]

That sGPA will be lethal for MD, and high MCAT doesn't remediate a weak MD...it just accentuates the disparity.

IDK about lethal. I gained acceptance with a lower sGPA to multiple MD schools, But I did also have a very strong MCAT.

 

[Goro]

IDK about lethal. I gained acceptance with a lower sGPA to multiple MD schools, But I did also have a very strong MCAT.

Outlier

 

[Chidori_Nagashi]

That sGPA will be lethal for MD, and high MCAT doesn't remediate a weak MD...it just accentuates the disparity.

What do you make of the trend? Is it considered downward?

 

[Goro]

What do you make of the trend? Is it considered downward?

It's an inverse U-shaped trend. Not good. You have a great JR year, and a meh SR year. Not enough data points to suggest that you'd be competitive for MD. Still OK for DO.

If you're boning for the MD, gopher special master's program or a DIY post bacc.

 

[Chidori_Nagashi]

It's an inverse U-shaped trend. Not good. You have a great JR year, and a meh SR year. Not enough data points to suggest that you'd be competitive for MD. Still OK for DO.

If you're boning for the MD, gopher special master's program or a DIY post bacc.

Thanks Goro. I have my MCAT date scheduled already so I will first focus on that. I appreciate the advice.

 

[libertyyne]

Outlier

Hardly, The Science GPA is within a standard deviation of all applicants. And even applicants with total GPAs of 3.2-3.39 with MCAT scores >517 have a 60% chance of matriculation.

Really this person's only hope is an exceptional MCAT score and have residency in a beneficial state. without that they are fairly dead in the water. But hardly the death-knell you would call it.

 

[Chidori_Nagashi]

View attachment 307089
View attachment 307090
Hardly, The Science GPA is within a standard deviation of all applicants. And even applicants with total GPAs of 3.2-3.39 with MCAT scores >517 have a 60% chance of matriculation.

Really this person's only hope is an exceptional MCAT score and have residency in a beneficial state. without that they are fairly dead in the water. But hardly the death-knell you would call it.

Interesting to know. I live in Illinois, by the way.

 

[libertyyne]

Interesting to know. I live in Illinois, by the way.

focus on getting a 517+ mcat score. everything else should be secondary at this moment.

 

[Goro]

View attachment 307089
View attachment 307090
Hardly, The Science GPA is within a standard deviation of all applicants. And even applicants with total GPAs of 3.2-3.39 with MCAT scores >517 have a 60% chance of matriculation.

Really this person's only hope is an exceptional MCAT score and have residency in a beneficial state. without that they are fairly dead in the water. But hardly the death-knell you would call it.

It's not about the collective, but what are the stats at each school. In addition, the collective stats get skewed by the lucky state schools, which together have lower GPAs.

It also doesn't take into account reinventors.