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- Dec 25, 2016
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I was scrolling through this page, which gives you a percentile of "Where you fall on the LizzyM distribution curve of all applicants?". *Specifically the 2016-2019 version.
Seems like something is off about the numbers. Here's one thought experiment:
To achieve a LizzyM of 77, you need a minimum of a 520 on the MCAT (37 old-score), since you can't have above a 4.0 GPA. However, according to the page I linked, a LizzyM of 77 is "only" in the top 5% of applicants (roughly top 2,500, given 50,000 applicants). But that doesn't make any sense. A 520 is in the top 2% of all examinees, which given 80,000 MCAT takers a year, is in the top 1600 of test-takers. So at worst, you should be in the top 3% of all applicants (1,600/50,000). But top 3% is probably still high since many 520+ scorers don't have a 4.0, let alone a 3.9. The number of people who apply with old scores shouldn't make a difference, because roughly the same amount of people who have scores from past years will take the MCAT this year but apply in future cycles (the numbers cancel out).
I also take issue with the shape of the graph. How is there a bump at the LizzyM 76-80 range? Both GPA and MCAT should be roughly normally distributed, and as such, the LizzyM graph should also be normally distributed.
Does any of this really matter? Not really. Should I be writing my secondaries instead? Yes. But I'm an economics major who's obsessed with statistics so I wanted to point these issues out.
Seems like something is off about the numbers. Here's one thought experiment:
To achieve a LizzyM of 77, you need a minimum of a 520 on the MCAT (37 old-score), since you can't have above a 4.0 GPA. However, according to the page I linked, a LizzyM of 77 is "only" in the top 5% of applicants (roughly top 2,500, given 50,000 applicants). But that doesn't make any sense. A 520 is in the top 2% of all examinees, which given 80,000 MCAT takers a year, is in the top 1600 of test-takers. So at worst, you should be in the top 3% of all applicants (1,600/50,000). But top 3% is probably still high since many 520+ scorers don't have a 4.0, let alone a 3.9. The number of people who apply with old scores shouldn't make a difference, because roughly the same amount of people who have scores from past years will take the MCAT this year but apply in future cycles (the numbers cancel out).
I also take issue with the shape of the graph. How is there a bump at the LizzyM 76-80 range? Both GPA and MCAT should be roughly normally distributed, and as such, the LizzyM graph should also be normally distributed.
Does any of this really matter? Not really. Should I be writing my secondaries instead? Yes. But I'm an economics major who's obsessed with statistics so I wanted to point these issues out.