LizzyM scores and validity

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I have previously posted about something like this, albeit in a sort of "Excel spreadsheet, anyone?" way. Now that it's directly relevant to me, I'm curious as to how valid these scores have been, historically speaking. (LizzyM, if you see this, I'd love your input as to where that formula originated. I've read many of your posts here with great interest, so I'm always interested in what you have to say).

According to the spreadsheet there which is based on the 2008-2009 MSAR, three of the schools to which I am applying are "Go for it" schools; the other three are "reach" schools. Given a ~3.9 GPA and not-so-great 25 MCAT, the three "Go for it" fields are encouraging.

Just curious as to further info on LizzyM scores. Maybe I missed something in those previous threads.
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do a search. tons of threads on this.

basically, all you need to know is the LizzyM score means nothing. it doesn't even factor in your sGPA. flipping thru the newest MSAR yourself will give you much better info
 
Its relatively valid for *average* students, i.e. the groups who arent too far off from 31/3.6. If you're a splitter (high gpa/low MCAT or vice versa), or are at an extreme (i.e. high GPA/MCAT), it won't tell you that much useful information.
 
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For the sake of people searching and finding this thread later:

How useful is the LizzyM score?

LizzyM score and BCPM/sGPA

[...] (Do a topics only search with "LizzyM.")

Sorry for the somewhat redundant post, but I suppose that creates another question of mine: are MCAT set scores of 9/9/6 and 7/9/9 significantly skewed to lessen the back-of-the-envelope validity of this?

Pending an August MCAT, it's not like I can do much about it; I'm just asking for my own knowledge. :love:
 
as noted, it isn't bad for people who have pretty similar stats IE: 3.7, 35. However, for someone who has a 3.9 25 it will probably be pretty unhelpful, and realistically, the 25 may hurt you a lot more than having say a 29, 3.5
 
You might want to look into DO (not to be negative, but the ******ed OMGSTANDARDIZEDTESTSLOL mentality of MD schools is hard to break through, regardless of who you are/what you have done).
 
I've asked this before, but one thing I've never understood about the LizzyM score is the cumulative GPA aspect. I've always heard the old mantra of "upwards trends count," yet it really isn't taken into account in any of the predictive scoring formulas.

How do we reconcile these two notions?
 
I developed the LizzyM score to help applicants get a grip on where they do or don't have a chance of getting an interview (getting an interview is half the battle -- and the Lizzy score is no help in determining whether or not your interview will help or hurt your chances). I did this because it pained me to see applicants with stats like yours apply to the Ivies, Hopkins, Duke, Emory, etc and then cry that they didn't get any interviews despite applying "broadly".

I'd love to see those entering med school this Summer/Fall to tell us their LizzyM score and the Lizzy scores of the schools where they interviewed in the 2007/08 season. (Lizzy score is the school's avg gpa(10)+ avgMCAT - 1.)
 
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LizzyM said:
Good catch! thanks!
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Blame it on my bass-ackwardsness in saying I was interested in "what you had to hear," not "what you had to say." Caught that after I posted it.

Lizzy, not that I know for which school's adcom you serve, but in your experience, how negatively would you suppose that that 25 is seen by, say, Texas schools? I understand that the world of medical admissions is a small one, so I was hoping you might have some insight on that.

Thanks. :luck:
 
exi said:
Lizzy, not that I know for which school's adcom you serve, but in your experience, how negatively would you suppose that that 25 is seen by, say, Texas schools?
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I've no clue. You might check mdapplicants to see what turns up in terms of admissions to each of the TX schools.
 
The LizzyM score was definitely helpful in selecting schools. I didn't use it as the gospel, but it made it easier to whittle the list of 120+ schools down to about 10. My LizzyM score was a 65. I'm not sure if the school numbers I used match up exactly to this years spreadsheet, but from my calculations, my application process went like this:

60 (Interview, Acceptance)
61 (Interview, Acceptance), 61 (Interview, Withdrew)
63 (Interview, Waitlist), 63 (Interview, Withdrew)
64 (Interview, Withdrew), 64 (No Interview)
65 (Interview, Rejection)
67 (Interview, Acceptance)

I got love from most of the schools within my range. My "reach" school was a state school for me. It was kind of a mixed bag with schools at/below my score.
 
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Does this number hold up at the top schools?
 
Well, from what I know, most of the "top" schools have Lizzy scores in the 70s. Someone like UNCbluesky might not have been as successful making applications to schools with scores ranging from 69 to 75.

Keep in mind that many top schools interview only 10-20% of applicants. I generally expect that using the Lizzy score can increase your odds from 10-20% (e.g. your chances are as good as if it were random selection) to upwards of 50%. I salute UNCbluesky for getting interviews at 8/9 schools.
 
Begaster said:
I've asked this before, but one thing I've never understood about the LizzyM score is the cumulative GPA aspect. I've always heard the old mantra of "upwards trends count," yet it really isn't taken into account in any of the predictive scoring formulas.

How do we reconcile these two notions?
Click to expand...

Let us consider 2 applicants both of whom have a 3.67 gpa. With all else being equal, one has grades of B+ in Bio and Chem followed by grades of A in O-chem and Physics. The other had A- in all 8 courses. The upward trend with As in o-chem might be considered as good or better than someone who had an A- in o-chem. I'd consider it a wash.

A four year trend of 3.0, 3.33, 3.67, 4.0 averages to 3.5 (assuming the same number of credits each year). Would this be better than someone with a 3.5 who started with a 4.0, to a 3.0, then 3.5, 3.5. Obviously, an upward trend is more desirable than a boomarang but again, all else being equal, the strong finish might give a slight edge but I think this factors within the 50/50 rule in terms of will you or won't you get an interview.
 
harposnarpo said:
Does this number hold up at the top schools?
Click to expand...

Eh... it gets a bit fishy at top schools. For example, a friend of mine with a 38/3.8 got into UTSW but not Baylor, and I got into Baylor with a 32/3.75 but not UTSW. It's not purely a numbers thing (but hopefully you knew that).

I'd use the LizzyM score to determine more or less where you should NOT apply, not where you think you'll be able to get in. The kid with the 29/3.4 should not be applying to Harvard unless they want to waste money. That's what I think this system aims to help with, because secondaries are REALLY expensive!

Oh and here are my numbers:

My LizzyM = 70.6
My schools:
74 (Interview, Acceptance, Scholarship)
71 (Interview, Rejected)
69 (Interview, Acceptance, Scholarship, Withdrew)
69 (Interview, Rejected)
67 (Rejected w/o interview)

And as you can see from the last school, I am COMPLETELY confused as to what happened there. And it's a perfect example of why numbers aren't everything (but I don't mind) :)
 
Yeah, my LizzyM was a 72.7 and so according to the MSAR I had, it meant I was "go for it" at most of the schools, but obviously, it's less predictive at the top tier schools, heh. I don't have the new MSAR, but of my 18 schools, I was offered 12 interviews, and the 6 that didn't interview me were mostly all schools with (probably) 73+, so I guess that made sense :)

Haha, mdaps should have a built in LizzyM function...
 
I have a 73.7 LizzyM, but a bad application yielded 2 WLs and no acceptances.

Like she said, it's a way to target. You have to make sure the rest of your application fits.
 
JWLuiza said:
I have a 73.7 LizzyM, but a bad application yielded 2 WLs and no acceptances.

Like she said, it's a way to target. You have to make sure the rest of your application fits.
Click to expand...

Scary. Congrats on having the tenacity to work on your weak points and re-apply (I stalked your md-apps).
 
I used LizzyM scores when picking schools and thought they were helpful. It's a good way to zone in on schools, especially if you are planning on applying to a bunch of them (ahem, Cali kids).

My score was 68.2.

I got interviews at schools with: 62, 64, 65, 65.1, 65.7, 66.2, 66.5, 66.7, 66.8, 66.8., 67.4, 68.4, 68.4, 68.5, and 72.2 (my undergrad).
 
LizzyM said:
I'd love to see those entering med school this Summer/Fall to tell us their LizzyM score and the Lizzy scores of the schools where they interviewed in the 2007/08 season. (Lizzy score is the school's avg gpa(10)+ avgMCAT - 1.)
Click to expand...

My LizzyM score was a 70.5, and this was my breakdown:

(72 and up) = Flat Out Rejection
(71) = Acceptance
(70) = Interview, Waitlist
(69) = Interview, Waitlist
(69) = Acceptance
(68) = Acceptance

I was an MD/PhD applicant so my breakdown may mean something different than MD-only applicants, but I just wanted to help :)
 
URHere said:
My LizzyM score was a 70.5, and this was my breakdown:

(72 and up) = Flat Out Rejection
(71) = Acceptance
(70) = Interview, Waitlist
(69) = Interview, Waitlist
(69) = Acceptance
(68) = Acceptance

I was an MD/PhD applicant so my breakdown may mean something different than MD-only applicants, but I just wanted to help :)
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Doesn't the Lizzy M score only apply to undergraduate GPAs? According to your MDapps, your score would have been a 68.5. Your acceptances according to that score (68.5) would amazingly be spot on. If you calculated it some other way, can you let us know.
 
Using the "School selection spreadsheet" on the "What are my chances" thread, here was my breakdown of lizzyMs.

My score: 73.8

Schools' Score/Result:
76/ Interview, rejection (Alma mater)
76/Rejection
75/Rejection
73/Rejection
73/Interview, WL , withdrew
73/Rejection
73/Rejection
73/Interview, rejection
73/Offered interview
73/Accepted off WL
73/Accepted
73/Accepted
73/Interview, WL, withdrew
69/Offered Interview
69/Accepted
68/Offered Interview
67/Offered Interview
66/Rejected
 
WinterLights said:
Doesn't the Lizzy M score only apply to undergraduate GPAs? According to your MDapps, your score would have been a 68.5. Your acceptances according to that score (68.5) would amazingly be spot on. If you calculated it some other way, can you let us know.
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According to the spreadsheet, for an applicant, the formula is (undergrad GPA)*10 + MCAT + 1 (for me, a 70.5). For a school, the formula has a -1 at the end. I think this may be what was confusing you.

If you plug your stats into the school selection spreadsheet, it will do the calculation for you.

I'm not sure how close the spreadsheet formula is to the "real" formula, but that's what I used, and it seems to be what most people on this thread have used as well.
 
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URHere said:
For an applicant, the formula is (undergrad GPA)*10 + MCAT + 1 (for me, a 70.5). For a school, the formula has a -1 at the end. I think this may be what was confusing you.

If you plug your stats into the school selection spreadsheet, it will do the calculation for you.
Click to expand...

I see. So for your score its a +1. Very interesting.
 
Hi Lizzy and everyone,

This is a different matter but I wanna bring up here anyway:

Schools place heavy emphasis on stats and will reject applicants with low MCAT/ high GPA, or low GPA/high MCAT, so may I ask why some schools accept high school students without MCAT and college-level works ? Don't you think it's utterly unfair ? In college, it's true they need to maintain a ~3.4 GPA in order to stay in the program. It's far easier than I imagined: everybody can get a 3.4 . Moreover, I think it's too soon (after high school) to see their promises for a successful career in Medicine.
 
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URHere said:
According to the spreadsheet, for an applicant, the formula is (undergrad GPA)*10 + MCAT + 1 (for me, a 70.5). For a school, the formula has a -1 at the end. I think this may be what was confusing you.

If you plug your stats into the school selection spreadsheet, it will do the calculation for you.

I'm not sure how close the spreadsheet formula is to the "real" formula, but that's what I used, and it seems to be what most people on this thread have used as well.
Click to expand...

Are you sure that for personal Lizzy score it's +1 and for the school it's -1? Any reason for that? I have a school selector spreadsheet I downloaded a while ago (attached) and it doesn't subtract one from the school score. I have attached it.
 

Attachments

  • School Selector - LizzyM.xls
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Maruko said:
Hi Lizzy and everyone,

This is a different matter but I wanna bring up here anyway:

Schools place heavy emphasis on stats and will reject applicants with low MCAT/ high GPA, or low GPA/high MCAT, so may I ask why some schools accept high school students without MCAT and college-level works ? Don't you think it's utterly unfair ? In college, it's true they need to maintain a ~3.4 GPA in order to stay in the program. It's far easier than I imagined: everybody can get a 3.4 . Moreover, I think it's too soon (after high school) to see their promises for a successful career in Medicine.
Click to expand...

Are you referring to the BA/MD program? People who go into to that tend to be some of the best high school students in the nation. Most of them have been prepped since birth to pursue medicine. They achieve their goal in a different manner than the traditional pre-med, and so I do not think that it is fair to compare the two. Also, some schools compress the BA/MD into 6 or 7 years, and so I imagine that the coursework is pretty intense in those programs.
 
I like the way you write man. You use the perfect mid-length words in a smooth way. A joy to read.

Begaster said:
I've asked this before, but one thing I've never understood about the LizzyM score is the cumulative GPA aspect. I've always heard the old mantra of "upwards trends count," yet it really isn't taken into account in any of the predictive scoring formulas.

How do we reconcile these two notions?
Click to expand...
 
I have a question for Lizzy.

We talked on here over a year ago and she was perplexed as to what to do in my situation.

I have a previous degree with very low GPA in business (Started in science and switched to business to go into the family business). Since back for my 2nd BS at different univ, I have a 3.94 with 56 hrs (mostly in Science and Math including cell, immuno, org, phys, micro, genetics, ...) and now have a cumulative 2.54 and BCPM of 3.69. Needless to say, my Lizzy M will never be competitive.

How do I get schools to look at my 2nd degree stats without them throwing my app in the bottom app tray (under the desk)? I have good EC's, Pt Exp, LOR's, and expect my MCAT (based on practice exams) to be in the mid to low 30's.

Thanks,

Jason
 
My numbers are a year old but I'll share.

My LM score: 70.3
UC Irvine-69.5
GWU -65.9
NYMC-66.1
University of Kentucky-67.5
Albany-66.8
SUNY Upstate-69.1
EVMS-65

So yeah I'd say pretty accurate.
 
My score: 72
Schools (2/17):
76: Interviewed, waitlisted
71: Interviewed, waitlisted

Let's hope the second time's a charm!:laugh::thumbup:
 
I'll share to add to the stat-crunching:

My LizzyM score: 64.4 - 65.0 (depends...I took classes during the year I applied, which raised my GPA ~0.06 by the end of the year)

School #1: 65.0 - interviewed, waitlisted, withdrew
School #2: 66.2 - interviewed, waitlisted, withdrew
School #3: 65.7 - interviewed, waitlisted, rejected
School #4: 70.9 - interviewed, accepted

Sometimes screwy things happen.
 
In my experience...the LizzyM score definitely helped predict interviews, but it's no guarantee of admission.

My score: 76.4 SD=3; offered interviews at 12/16 of schools

77 Interview, waitlist, WD
76 Interview, waitlist, WD
76 Interview, waitlist, WD
75 Interview, waitlist, WD
73 Interview, waitlist, WD...in my defense this was my 1st interview and i was nervous & stupid
73 Accepted with scholarship
73 Accepted with sholarship upon bargaining
73 Rejected pre-interview
73 Accepted
73 Rejected pre-interview
72 Accepted with scholarship app invite
70 Interview, declined to go
69 Rejected pre-interview
69 Interview, declined to go
68 Interview, declined to go
68 No interview offer after 1st acceptance elsewhere, WD
 
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I'm sure someone had already asked this question, but: would there be any way to integrate more predictors of gaining acceptance to med school into the LizzyM score? For instance factors such as research, clinical experience, volunteer work. I know that how these activities help each individual in the app process is very different, but there must be stats like: people with 3.75/35 with 3 years of research have an X higher acceptance rate than someone with 3.75/35 with only one semester. Is this a bad example? Have you ever thought about something like this LizzyM or do you think that it is best to leave it that the major take away message from the LizzyM score is your GPA and MCAT score is far and above the biggest predictor of med schools acceptance?
 
Quick question...when determining the "LizzyM" score for the schools you are applying to, do you use the stats of the accepted students or the stats of the matriculated students? Thanks!
 
My LizzyM: 72 (4.0 GPA, 31 MCAT)

My schools:

73.7 interview, rejection (Johns Hopkins)
73.3 rejection (Vanderbilt)
73.2 on hold, rejection (UChicago)
73.1 rejection (Yale)
73.0 rejection (Northwestern)
71.5 rejection (mayo)
68.4 accepted (St. Louis U (attending))
67.2 accepted (UIllinois)
66.4 accepted (Rush)
65.3 accepted (Southern Illinois)

I would say that with the exception of Mayo (which will always be weird, as they admit only ~50 a year), this is very accurate.
 
This is very interesting. I'm not sure if adding all the other factors would provide for a better quick & dirty way of narrowing one's choices.

Seeing some of these reports from last season however makes me wonder if the correction for the school should be +2 rather than -1. In other words, you should have a Lizzy score that is a little higher than the school's uncorrected score rather than being safe at a school with an uncorrected Lizzy score slightly above your own.
 
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yeah i think you're right. adding more factors would start to make things pretty cloudy. i think it is better left as a quick and dirty analysis, and it seems to be fairly accurate based off some of the prior posts.
 
Why does science GPA have no affect on the lizzyMscore? that seems strange...

From what I have heard, schools care more about your science GPA than cumulative- granted that you didn't bomb your other classes. Like my cGPA is 3.6 and my science is a 3.76 as a math major
 
Kivi said:
Why does science GPA have no affect on the lizzyMscore? that seems strange...

From what I have heard, schools care more about your science GPA than cumulative- granted that you didn't bomb your other classes. Like my cGPA is 3.6 and my science is a 3.76 as a math major
Click to expand...

Honestly, we're not pricing derivatives with the calculation. But, I'm sure it could be modified to assign more weight to the sGPA if someone wanted to invest the time. As an alternative to changing the spreadsheet, though, why not just average the two GPAs and use the mean? That seems like a simple and realistic option.
 
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For the sake of data points: in retrospect this is surprisingly accurate, particularly in predicting the actual outcomes of my interviews, which followed the rankings exactly.

My LizzyM: 70

73 - WL
73 - WL
73 - WL
73 - WL
70 - Accepted
69 - Accepted
69 - Withdrew
69 - Withdrew
69 - Withdrew
68 - Withdrew
66 - Withdrew
65 - Withdrew
 
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My LizzyM: 71.3
Interviewed at following:
School 1- 73.3 (waitlisted and hoping)
School 2- 69.7 (called and rejected me while driving home from interview, not really but felt like it)
School 3- 69.3 (waitlisted and hoping)
School 4- 69.1 (accepted and grateful)
School 5- 67.9 (waitlisted and withdrew)
School 6- 66.1 (rejected faster than the speed of light)
School 7- ? ( Hoffstra, rejected)
 
LizzyM scores can give a good insight in to how you stand, but they lack other factors that are huge in the application process. ie all your extra curriculars or when you apply.

Dont get discouraged if you are not quite where you want to be in terms of a LizzyM score. Applying broadly and early can help you overcome many shortcomings in your app.
 
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