Take home message:
I understand my "Estimated # DO Unmatched in ACGME" has its flaws as it doesn't account for a lot of variables, but hey, if you can think of a better way to estimate how many of the 617 DOs Unmatched applied for ACGME Gen-Surgery in 2011, I'm all ears. If you have nothing productive to say (i.e. how to better estimate the #), then your comment benefits no one. But I'll re-post all the data into one comment for ease of reading:
2011 ACGME NRMP Data:
Total # DO Applicants = 2,178
Total # DO Matched = 1,561
Total # DO Unmatched = 617
Student "interest" in specialty estimated by [#Matched into that specific specialty/Total #Matched]
Reasoning: the more students matching into a certain specialty can be
loosely correlated with more students applying for that specific specialty, which in turn can be
loosely correlated with students having more of an interest in that specific specialty.
DO students estimated interest in a specialty (I left out a few specialties for the sake of time).
19.8% for IM
18.6% for FM
14.5% for Peds
7.3% for Psych
3% for Gen Surgery
This seems to follow the general norm for DO students, as most tend to lean toward Primary Care.
Estimated # of Unmatched DOs applying for ACGME Gen Surgery = Total # Unmatched DOs * Likelihood of Gen-Surgery Interest = 617*.03 = approximately 19 students may have been interested in Gen-Surgery but did not match.
Gen Surgery Data:
1437 total applicants (USMD + IA)
**IA = Independent Applicants (DO+IMG+FMG)
USMD
Total # Applicants = 945
Total # Matched = 804
Match Rate = 85.1%
DO
Total # DO Match for both Categorical + Preliminary = 46
Total # DO Applicants = Total # Matched + Estimated # Unmatched = 46 + 19 = 65
Estimated Match Rate = 70.1%
IA (subtracting DO)
Total # Match = 172 - 46 = 126
Total # Unmatched = 320 - 19 = 301
Total # FMG+IMG Applicants = 427
Estimated Match Rate for FMG & IMG = 29.5%
2011 AOA Match Data for Gen-Surgery
Total # Positions Available = 104
Total # Applicants = 102
Total # Matched = 102, leaving 2 spots unfilled.
Match Rate = 100%
Factoring in 2011 AOA Match with 2011 ACGME Match for Gen-Surgery:
Total # DO Applicants = 46 (ACGME Match) + 19 (Estimated ACGME Unmatch) + 102 (AOA Match) + 0 (AOA Unmatch) = 167
Total # DO Match = 148
Match Rate = 88.6%
ACGME Gen-Surgery Estimated Match Rate
MD = 85.1%
DO = 70.1%
Total US Estimated Match Rate (AOA & ACGME)
MD = 85.1%
DO = 88.6%
Now can we please move on to a
more productive thread...like "Who's better, MD or DO?"