If geography is the only factor, it's not that hard since even though there aren't a ton of programs, they cover all of the tiers. Your Step 1 should be enough to get you in a lot of doors. That being said, most of the programs, especially the more attainable ones are only taking 2-4 people per year so you're still competing for very few spots. I think it's reasonable to think you'll match in SoCal but I would at least apply to the bare minimum of programs (10 or so? a few more for prelim). I had similar scores and research from a solid med school and still ended up at #3.