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There's also a lot of selection bias. People who go to a brand name school for med school and undergrad are likely the same people who will put a lot of weight on name in their residency.
I can tell you that from my personal experience of n=1, do well in med school and doors open up. State school + strong boards + AOA = interviews wherever you want. As previously stated, if you're a jerk on interviews, it's game over.
This will (hopefully) be my last bit of advice: You will get a great medical education wherever you go (in the states). Medical education is entirely dependent on how much you put in. Believe it or not, we get the same textbooks at my school as they do at Yale. Beyond that, I would even go so far as to say I think I got a better education than most. I have never scrubbed in on a whipple (nor do I have the desire to do so), but I was first assist on every surgery for my surgery rotation; I delivered a ton of babies on ob/gyn; I tubed and lined a ton of patients on EM and ICU; oh psych, well, I basically just sat around, but the point still stands. You need to figure out where you will be happy. For me, I would be happy if I stayed in-state so I could keep my loans down and be close to family. A lot of people feel like they need to go to a name school to be happy, I didn't. My MCAT wouldn't have been high enough to get me a merit scholarship at anywhere fancy and I don't come from money, so it didn't make sense. What made sense to me was being somewhere that was close enough to home, where I liked the people and (with some savings and a little help from my family) I could keep my student loans below the 6 figure mark.
Good luck.

Great post! And loans below 6 figures? I wish I had that opportunity. I'll almost definitely have more than 300k of debt by the time I graduate. Definitely worth it, but still an extremely daunting thought.