Michael Burry shorts TSLA, Elon Loses

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WEBB PINKERTON said:
Anyone making a killing selling baby formula right now?
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There are probably some laws against price gouging right? Remember the early stages of pandemic? $300 lysol? It's amazing what a world we live in.
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ScubaV said:
Not a dig, but I have never understood the collector mindset. Somehow my brain just doesn't work that way. I would much rather spend the money on practical things than on display items that cannot be used or interacted with because it will damage the value.

If I had millions I would retire, travel the world, have experiences. If I had billions I would fund research for things that would advance humanity like clean energy, disease prevention, or space exploration. Buying an original artwork from the 1700s or something would do nothing for me. If I really wanted to look at it all the time, a reprint would be just fine.
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Aah! “If I had millions…”. Well, I do, and you do what you can because you are, unfortunately, too damned old, have physical/medical inconveniences or (still) family obligations.
I literally have 3 beautiful “elephant” guns that probably weep when I take them hog hunting in a FL swamp!

Make it quick( if you can) and spend it young!
 
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mikesheree said:
Aah! “If I had millions…”. Well, I do, and you do what you can because you are, unfortunately, too damned old, have physical/medical inconveniences or (still) family obligations.
I literally have 3 beautiful “elephant” guns that probably weep when I take them hog hunting in a FL swamp!

Make it quick( if you can) and spend it young!
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That's my plan. I'm hoping to hit a million in retirement accounts by 40, but that will depend more on market fluctuations than anything. Other than that it's balancing spending now while I can most enjoy it vs. putting extra toward retirement to retire faster.

Would be nice if I can live long enough for some serious medical advances like growing whole organs out of stem cells and whatnot, but it's out of my hands.
 
ScubaV said:
That's my plan. I'm hoping to hit a million in retirement accounts by 40, but that will depend more on market fluctuations than anything. Other than that it's balancing spending now while I can most enjoy it vs. putting extra toward retirement to retire faster.

Would be nice if I can live long enough for some serious medical advances like growing whole organs out of stem cells and whatnot, but it's out of my hands.
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I'm under 40 and I probably already have that amount in properties I own and rent out. A few more of those and I'll be working just for Vegas cash at that point.
 
This may be completely redundant and somewhat pedantic but I hope y’all know that 1M does not come anywhere close to providing a comfortable retirement today.
 
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mikesheree said:
This may be completely redundant and somewhat pedantic but I hope y’all know that 1M does not come anywhere close to providing a comfortable retirement today.
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Agree. My goal is to have enough invested that 5-7% returns of that amount becomes equal to or more than I spend in a year. As you get older inflation makes that number bigger, but age also lowers COL requirements (no kids to feed, no house payments, etc.). While rental properties are mostly passive, they still require work, although returns are generally far above this number. Avoid using net worth for these calculations, only retirement and passive income influx. If you can make this happen you can live purely off yields and not lower your net worth.

$1M invested with average stock market returns yields $50-70K. While you could live on that today as a retiree (assuming you have few expenses and your house is paid off), this probably won't be true in 20 years when you retire (assuming you are 40, I am unfortunately already above this number). A middle-class person can more than likely end up with at least $1M saved up for retirement these days if they consistently contribute well to a 401K or IRA.

$5M is pretty good for a modest retirement IMO. That's $250K per year. Most physicians should be able to get to this number without too much trouble. Assuming 7% annual returns (market average), if you already have $1M saved up by the time you are 40, you should expect to get to $5M saved by the time you are 58 if you contribute as little as $50K per year to retirement. That's about the current IRA contribution max right now. If you could squirrel away $100K per year for retirement, you'd have $5M by the time you are 55. $200K and you could do it in 10 years.
 
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mikesheree said:
This may be completely redundant and somewhat pedantic but I hope y’all know that 1M does not come anywhere close to providing a comfortable retirement today.
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Yeah, that's not my retirement target just a milestone goal. With inflation, I anticipate needing something in the $4-6M range.

Alteran said:
I'm under 40 and I probably already have that amount in properties I own and rent out. A few more of those and I'll be working just for Vegas cash at that point.
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Definitely a nice situation to be in, but I have absolutely no interest in being a landlord.
 
ScubaV said:
Definitely a nice situation to be in, but I have absolutely no interest in being a landlord.
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The federal and local government's response to the pandemic created a perverse incentive to not do traditional long-term rentals as renters behind on their payments faced little to no consequence for non-payment. As soon as our leases expired, we converted them to vacation rentals and now earn about 3X what we would have with a traditional rental arrangement with no hassle on getting paid. I'd say that it was a novel idea, but all the people we know with rentals have either already converted them or are in the process of converting them to short term/vacation style properties.
 
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The 5-7% assumption is significantly higher than most financial experts state as a safe withdrawal TODAY and in the foreseeable future to “never run out of money”. The usual stated figures are between 3-4%. My predictive method is a Fibonacci plot giving me 95%+ goal achievement. I now have 99%. I let Vanguard manage it all. Peanuts mgmt fee for HNW individuals. Gotta keep that fear and greed under control
 
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mikesheree said:
The 5-7% assumption is significantly higher than most financial experts state as a safe withdrawal TODAY and in the foreseeable future to “never run out of money”. The usual stated figures are between 3-4%. My predictive method is a Fibonacci plot giving me 95%+ goal achievement. I now have 99%. I let Vanguard manage it all. Peanuts mgmt fee for HNW individuals. Gotta keep that fear and greed under control
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Sure, this is being conservative and a good strategy. The market average is the market average. That said, you could underperform the average, and the market can underperform by 200% for 20 years without affecting the "average market return" much. Additionally, if you have your funds in a managed account, and they take 1%, 5% returns means 4% returns.
 
I wont be one of those guys who puts screen shots of their trades because that is too douchey but I picked up some SQQQ last week before the inflation numbers and wow...it has been nice:)
 
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LADoc00 said:
I wont be one of those guys who puts screen shots of their trades because that is too douchey but I picked up some SQQQ last week before the inflation numbers and wow...it has been nice:)
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I meant 23Ko_O
I meant 22K....

My long, boring position on XOM is probably looking pretty good to the cryptobros right now...:unsure:
 
gbwillner said:
I meant 23Ko_O
I meant 22K....

My long, boring position on XOM is probably looking pretty good to the cryptobros right now...:unsure:
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While most of us are not George Soros, capable of spotting bubbles and exiting them with perfect timing, it was really really easy money in the crypto bull run. Of course, many/most of the participants are exceptionally greedy and gave it all back.
 
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Spikebd said:
While most of us are not George Soros, capable of spotting bubbles and exiting them with perfect timing, it was really really easy money in the crypto bull run. Of course, many/most of the participants are exceptionally greedy and gave it all back.
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By definition almost all will be losers, since any big winners are literally walking out with other people's money.
 
Last chance to buy BTC above $17K!!!
:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

(this thread will never get old or not funny to me. Y'all are gonna have to deal with it!)
 
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For those who may not be following: One of the largest crypto exchanges in the world, FTX had one of their own tokens, FTT drop in price due to a leaked document. This set off a cascade of events and customers who traded on FTX demanded to withdraw up to $6 billion all of a sudden. FTX needed a bailout, but couldn't get it. Now, they are on the verge of collapse.

FTT had already lost 80% of its value between Monday and Tuesday, falling to $5 and wiping out more than $2 billion in a day. It dropped by more than half on Wednesday to around $2.30, shrinking the total value of circulating tokens to roughly $308 million.

Cryptocurrencies have plummeted amid the deal turmoil, with bitcoin falling 15% on Wednesday after a 13% drop on Tuesday. It’s trading below $16,000 for the first time since November 2020. Ether, meanwhile, has plunged more than 30% over the past two days and is close to falling below $1,000.

Here’s the company’s full statement:

“As a result of corporate due diligence, as well as the latest news reports regarding mishandled customer funds and alleged US agency investigations, we have decided that we will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX.com.

In the beginning, our hope was to be able to support FTX’s customers to provide liquidity, but the issues are beyond our control or ability to help.

Every time a major player in an industry fails, retail consumers will suffer. We have seen over the last several years that the crypto ecosystem is becoming more resilient and we believe in time that outliers that misuse user funds will be weeded out by the free market.

As regulatory frameworks are developed and as the industry continues to evolve toward greater decentralization, the ecosystem will grow stronger.”

Full story here: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/09/binance-backs-out-of-ftx-rescue-leaving-the-crypto-exchange-on-the-brink-of-collapse.html
 
Alteran said:
The federal and local government's response to the pandemic created a perverse incentive to not do traditional long-term rentals as renters behind on their payments faced little to no consequence for non-payment. As soon as our leases expired, we converted them to vacation rentals and now earn about 3X what we would have with a traditional rental arrangement with no hassle on getting paid. I'd say that it was a novel idea, but all the people we know with rentals have either already converted them or are in the process of converting them to short term/vacation style properties.
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Curious how the AirBnB host life is going these days. Even with inflation, I suppose those who could afford nice vacations can still afford them. But it does seem like there's growing backlash against deceptive pricing practices and demands for guests to both pay a cleaning fee and do the actual cleaning. I wonder what the experience is like on the other side.
 
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I strongly recommend that if you still have magic internet beans, you sell them for dirty fiat as they are running out of mana.


Look at Grayscale trust (effectively an ETF for holding BTC)- their value is trading at 60% of the "value" of their bitcoin assets... which are also plummeting.

I expect most exchanges to go under in the near term, and if your USD or other "coins" are on them when it happens, they will vanish forever, because they are all insolvent. If you think SBF is a fraud, wait till you see he was the most honest one of the bunch.

Here he is admitting his business model (yield farming) is a ponzi scheme:

All the exchanges have been doing this since 2019. This is how they revived the market that collapsed in 2018. Your dollars go in, and your poker chips show increasing value compared to 1:1 pegged stablecoins that are backed by other tokens, bad debt, ownership stakes in the exchanges themselves, or just thin air. Your money was gone the minute you deposited it.

If you see that your exchange's website says "temporarily down for maintenance" the end is nigh.
 
Not to worry since the price of NFT art is also falling.
Maybe Bitcoin won't be there to purchase second homes and to handle retirement expenses, but your Bitcoin holdings can still buy you the virtual paintings and sculpture you need to brag to your friends about at USCAP shin digs.
 
Voyager, FTX and now today BlockFi file for bankruptcy.

Coinbase and Binance last man standing.
 
A quick heuristic for making (and keeping) money in crypto:

Buy when gbwillner bear posts.

Sell when LaDOC bull posts.

kek
 
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Adrian Cocot said:
A quick heuristic for making (and keeping) money in crypto:

Buy when gbwillner bear posts.

Sell when LaDOC bull posts.

kek
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Too funny. Not that I believe SDN is the appropriate resource for keeping a pulse on the markets. But you hit on something important which many folks who trade in whatever market fail to realize...buy the fear, buy the blood, sell the greed, sell into strength. Buy when people hate the asset. Sell when everyone wants the asset. Easy to do when investing with money you can afford to lose (and don't need right away either) of course; takes the emotion out of the equation. Often easier said than done.

So since this thread mentions TSLA? So who bought TSLA a few weeks ago when it was down to almost at $100 per share? What a difference of a few weeks make :)
 
B***F***** said:
Too funny. Not that I believe SDN is the appropriate resource for keeping a pulse on the markets. But you hit on something important which many folks who trade in whatever market fail to realize...buy the fear, buy the blood, sell the greed, sell into strength. Buy when people hate the asset. Sell when everyone wants the asset. Easy to do when investing with money you can afford to lose (and don't need right away either) of course; takes the emotion out of the equation. Often easier said than done.

So since this thread mentions TSLA? So who bought TSLA a few weeks ago when it was down to almost at $100 per share? What a difference of a few weeks make :)
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Dead cat bounce? Might be time to offload
 
As onramps for real $$ dry up and statements from the government make it clear this will be regulated and be very difficult for crypto to engage with the financial system, AND with each scam and major exchange either going bankrupt or having their scams laid bare... you really gotta question why the price of crypto is going up. Especially when there are no controls in place to limit manipulation of price.

I would suspect a lot has to do with looking for exit liquidity from some of the larger stakeholders. Pump up the price with wash trades or spoofing, try go squeeze more money out of the last few retail investors still too dumb to know better, then let it plummet again.

Additionally, this may also reflect prices vs. USDT or other "stablecoins" used to substitute the USD. As the stablecoins collapse or get close to breaking their pegs, money will fly into bitcoin as a haven, in exchange for more and more USDT/USBC etc. That can make the appearance of the price going up depending on how the BTC price is being aggregated.

Just some thoughts.
 
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Maybe, maybe not. Either way, I bought some L2 tokens. Trust the process.

B***F***** said:
So since this thread mentions TSLA? So who bought TSLA a few weeks ago when it was down to almost at $100 per share? What a difference of a few weeks make :)
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Congrats to the longs, fr. Won't buy TSLA out of principle ever since Ego took over Twitter and made it worse. But in the context of the thread title, I do find it amusing that Michael Burry bear posted a few days ago, only to delete his account as everything pumped during the FED minutes.
 
Adrian Cocot said:
Maybe, maybe not. Either way, I bought some L2 tokens. Trust the process.



Congrats to the longs, fr. Won't buy TSLA out of principle ever since Ego took over Twitter and made it worse. But in the context of the thread title, I do find it amusing that Michael Burry bear posted a few days ago, only to delete his account as everything pumped during the FED minutes.
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I have a fair amount of TSLA but haven't bought any since like 2015. It keeps splitting and I keep selling but there is always more in the account somehow. I bought when they had a best-in-class product with no real competition.

Given what I've seen in the last year or two I would not buy this stock today.
 
B***F***** said:
Too funny. Not that I believe SDN is the appropriate resource for keeping a pulse on the markets. But you hit on something important which many folks who trade in whatever market fail to realize...buy the fear, buy the blood, sell the greed, sell into strength. Buy when people hate the asset. Sell when everyone wants the asset. Easy to do when investing with money you can afford to lose (and don't need right away either) of course; takes the emotion out of the equation. Often easier said than done.

So since this thread mentions TSLA? So who bought TSLA a few weeks ago when it was down to almost at $100 per share? What a difference of a few weeks make :)
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Words of wisdom that paraphrase Sir John Templeton. But, I don’t think he was referring to magic beans (crypto).
 
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mike-sheree said:
Words of wisdom that paraphrase Sir John Templeton. But, I don’t think he was referring to magic beans (crypto).
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I don't touch crypto anymore. I banked on the stupid Shiba run last year...then took my money out. Crypto is based on no fundamentals based my knowledge.
 
Well.... yeah. More and more people are slowly realizing that Bitcoin is both a) a sop for excess Fed liquidity, and b) a legitimate alternative to those who are losing faith in the legacy banking system and/or want to challenge the dollar hegemony.

For all the criticisms, memes, and Twitter threads... the real winners over the next decade are probably going to be those who ignore the noise and just DCA into the crypto majors.
 
🤷‍♂️ You don't have to agree, as long as you understand that there are a lot of people out there that believe it and allocate their capital accordingly.
 
Adrian Cocot said:
🤷‍♂️ You don't have to agree, as long as you understand that there are a lot of people out there that believe it and allocate their capital accordingly.
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Cathie Wood believes it. She said it’s going to $1 mil by 2030.

You’re lucky gbwillner ain’t here he’d probably laugh at you.
 
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No, there are "some" people out there that "believe" it, the rest that buy into "it" have absolutely no understanding what "it" is and how "it" is worth anything, they just have FOMO. I don't disagree that it's made lots of people wealthy and bankrupt lots of people too...same as the stock market.
But whatever makes you feel better, so yes, I acknowledge that you and others allocate their capital on cryptocurrency.
 
All I can say is the Tether printer has been out of control lately, and nothing stops wash trades and other ways to manipulate the market. The fact that charts on unregulated exchanges say BTC=$26k should be taken with a grain of salt. Additionally, as stablecoins fail, people flee to BTC since they often can't pull their money out, and the BTC price is usually not really priced in dollars but "dollar substitutes" like USDT, USDC, and others.

My point is that it is more likely that this price bump is a mirage than not- typified by the fact that FTX is gone, Coinbase is looking to flee the country and will soon be bankrupt... how can that be if there is really adoption or even interest in this nonsense?

BTC can be "worth" whatever an exchange says it is... but if there are no exchanges that allow USD withdrawals it is just fairy dust.
 
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gbwillner said:
All I can say is the Tether printer has been out of control lately, and nothing stops wash trades and other ways to manipulate the market. The fact that charts on unregulated exchanges say BTC=$26k should be taken with a grain of salt. Additionally, as stablecoins fail, people flee to BTC since they often can't pull their money out, and the BTC price is usually not really priced in dollars but "dollar substitutes" like USDT, USDC, and others.

My point is that it is more likely that this price bump is a mirage than not- typified by the fact that FTX is gone, Coinbase is looking to flee the country and will soon be bankrupt... how can that be if there is really adoption or even interest in this nonsense?

BTC can be "worth" whatever an exchange says it is... but if there are no exchanges that allow USD withdrawals it is just fairy dust.
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Coinbase is corrupt AF. I used their exchange "Gdax" around 2016/2017 when BTC was booming from $2K. Gdax held a pretty hefty amount of BTC I was transferring in for around ~4 days, which is absurd since I went through thousands of confirmations (well above the norm for BTC at any time). The exchange would not authorize the transfer until I went on reddit to complain to a coinbase engineer. "Luckily" someone answered my PM after I saw BTC fall from 20K to 12K. This happened to me and quite a few others out there... makes you wonder why they had a really horrendous systems glitch right around BTC peak price. I had fun while the prices were low but I couldn't handle the uncertainly or instability of this stuff.
 
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cmz said:
Coinbase is corrupt AF. I used their exchange "Gdax" around 2016/2017 when BTC was booming from $2K. Gdax held a pretty hefty amount of BTC I was transferring in for around ~4 days, which is absurd since I went through thousands of confirmations (well above the norm for BTC at any time). The exchange would not authorize the transfer until I went on reddit to complain to a coinbase engineer. "Luckily" someone answered my PM after I saw BTC fall from 20K to 12K. This happened to me and quite a few others out there... makes you wonder why they had a really horrendous systems glitch right around BTC peak price. I had fun while the prices were low but I couldn't handle the uncertainly or instability of this stuff.
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Coinbase is corrupt AF, but it is the least corrupt exchange because it is publicly traded. None can withstand financial scrutiny. All commit securities fraud, with their only defense being "crypto isn't regulated" so there is no such thing as fraud. They will all learn otherwise eventually.

Here are things all exchanges do:

1. Actively trade against their own customers. Since they have all client orders, they front-run all customers. It's like paying poker in Vegas with the casino at the table, and they deal the cards. This was basically what Alameda was with FTX. FTX "owned" Alameda, who traded against FTX customers. Oh, by the way, the knew all the FTX data AND could straight up steal FTX client funds. And this was the most "compliant" exchange. Binance, the world's largest exchange... doesn't even have an office or location made available, so they can't be raided. That's who you are trusting in this "industry".

2. Allow illegal practices like wash trading, painting tape, etc.

3. Don't enforce KYC and allow money laundering

4. Deal in and allow trading with known fraudulent "tokens", particularly stablecoins that actually allow the whole ecosystem to function. These are effectively dollar substitutes that are mostly fictitious and hot air. For example, Tether printed $3B dollars in the last week... look at what's happened to BTC price. Tether prints USDT, uses it to buy BTC, helps inflate the price. Those tethers trade for $1.... but are they backed by real money? No. BTW, all you need to do is redeem tethers.... but if you read their TOS they actually don't have to redeem anything.

I could go on, but I am tired of it... I have warned you guys time and time again. This is smoke and mirrors.
 
OK, just saw this so I jumped back in....

Coinbase issued warning by SEC of potential securities charges

The entire thing is a game of cards. Believing that the charts is the same as tracking the DJIA on the NYSE is how they get you. None of it is real. It will end slowly, then all at once.

Kraken wont be able to withdraw funds after 3/27 due to the loss of Silvergate Bank (although they are looking for other means). FTX is gone. Who's left? When Gemini and Coinbase fold, how will you withdraw real dollars?
 
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I traded on Gdax/coinbase well before they were even "regulated". I agree it's a whole lot of vaporware, but how else are you gonna transfer/redistribute massive wealth? :D
 
cmz said:
I traded on Gdax/coinbase well before they were even "regulated". I agree it's a whole lot of vaporware, but how else are you gonna transfer/redistribute massive wealth? :D
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There’s no real “wealth” there to transfer.
 
mike-sheree said:
There’s no real “wealth” there to transfer.
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Oh but there is... in the exact scenario I described above... you don't realize the loss until you sell. Thousands of people have purchased BTC and alt coins at absurd prices and have sold for a loss. There is definite manipulation in these markets and there are individuals who know how to capitalize on this. It helps immensely when you own the bank/exchange.
 
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