You won't know unless you try, though Duke is probably out. Tufts and Tulane are still very possible.
I don't believe that the numbers will change all that much. Schools that reward reinvention want you have a good MCAT score. Most of the schools in what I call Harvard/Stanford class simply have had more join the class. I believe that a 514 is still good for the following:
I dont undserstand how someone could be a good pediatrician with only a well above average understanding of physics and gen chem #notmychild
I don’t buy this notion that UCLA is somehow more holistic than other top schools because their score distribution is wider. Holistic doesn’t mean stats are less important. It just means they aren’t the only important factor. I can guarantee you that top schools with sky high average stats have well rounded and overall impressive student bodies.
I don’t dispute UCLA is able to pick from a pool of highly qualified candidates, but there are certainly degrees of separation. Although UCLA’s average accepted MCAT is 517, their matriculating average is 514 according to MSAR. Yale, on the other hand, has an accepted average of 521 and matriculating average of 520.
Too soon lol
what are u referring to specifically
What misunderstandings? I've been using "average" in the colloquial sense, but obviously we are dealing with medians here, which are less sensitive to outliers and don't rely on a normal distribution to provide an accurate measure of central tendency. Not sure why this is an issue in our discussion.
It's just a colloquial way to talk. I would sincerely hope everyone participating in this discussion knows the difference between means and medians--it's literally stats 101. I am curious how you think it has led to misunderstandings here though.
Pretty sure just about everyone here is talking about medians, and knows that the MSAR lists medians...
Accepted gives you the median stats for all students accepted into the program, regardless of whether they choose to attend. matriculated gives you the stats of only the entering class.
In 2016, 45.9% of the applicants applied with scores from the 1991 version (the old version) of the MCAT® exam only, 20.0% applied with scores from the old exam and the new exam, and 32.4% applied with scores from the new exam only. In 2017, 11.5% of the applicants applied with scores from the old version of the MCAT® exam only, 15.9% applied with scores from the old exam and the new exam, and 71.0% applied with scores from the new exam only.
16 schools per applicant for the latest cycle: https://www.aamc.org/download/321442/data/factstablea1.pdf
Accepted: 511, 3.63 (went down, I believe)
People that took the MCAT in the past can apply with a score that is a year old, not every applicant has a score from the previous year.
I'd (assume) it would be based on the highest score because that is the score that you got accepted with.
This is an important factor for considering any individual year, but for it to be sustainable over time you would need however many applicants you take from the previous year to also not get accepted from the current year's test takers, so that they can go on to supply the next year. Assuming a steady 21,000 matriculants per year, the mcat would need to produce an average of 10,500 people scoring 511+ every year (which according to last years data is pretty accurate if not a little high), but then every single one of these people would have to end up with an acceptance either that year or in future years. I'm not sure what the stats are for 511+ scorers eventually getting an acceptance upon reapplication, but I doubt it would be near 100%. Unless I'm missing something big, this would indicate that schools have overdrawn from the pool of current and past applicants with 511+ scores to cause the spike this year. Therefore they will not have enough to maintain this median in future years. Then again, all of this is assuming that Mcat percentiles, the total number of test takers, and the number of yearly matriculants all remain constant.
I could be wrong, but I was under the impression roughly 100k people take the MCAT each year, combining that with past years, I don't think it would be that hard to find enough 511+ people.
That would be the something big I'm missing then
. I was running under the impression that only 64,500 people took it last year which is the sample size from the percentile data AAMC released for May 2016 through April 2017. Although now that I think about it, that may have just been the sample size for assessing the percentiles, not the total tests or testers. If total test takers is 100,000 than your right there would definitely be enough 511+Regardless of if its 65k or 100k, it doesn't just have to be 511+ because there will be a 10th, 25th, etc. of people that get in, which may drop down to 505 or whatever (we don't know). So if 511 if the 50th then only 50% of acceptances have to be over 511. Pair that with people from past years that didn't get in, took a gap year, etc. It clearly isn't an issue and I would not be surprised if that stats just went up more.That would be the something big I'm missing then
I agree 100k would not be an issue but I still think 65k would be an issue. a 511 median means that out of the 21,000 people who will be matriculating come fall, 10,500 scored a 511+. Let's say 3500 511+ applicants were left over from the previous cycle and all reapplied and all got accepted. The MCAT then produces another 10,500 511+ scores (which would be a high estimate if only 65k people took it a year). 7000 of these would matriculate with the previous year's 3500 to meet the quota for a 511 median. This would leave 3500 511+ applicants left for next year's cycle. The problem is, if the numbers continue like this and only 10,500 511+ scores are produced a year, every single one of these applicants would have to be accepted to keep the median where it is. This obviously isn't going to happen, so either way more than 65K take the exam a year, or the median will have to drop as the 511+ pool is exhausted. I'm more inclined to believe that your 100k a year estimate is more accurate, or even 80k, but I either failed google class or the true numbers are hidden somewhere because I can't seem to find an estimate on total test takers per year.
The numbers for how many people took the MCAT in recent years are difficult to find, but I believe it's close to 100k per year - or at least 100k test administrations per year. In 2013, around 95k MCATs were administered (https://aamc-orange.global.ssl.fast...dcc3-49d4-bbde-2ded03bbadd4/combined13pdf.pdf). In 2015, around 60k new MCATs were administered (https://www.aamc.org/download/454206/data/mcatatglance2015.pdf), but between 2015-16 150k new MCATs were administered (https://aamc-orange.global.ssl.fast...ction_score_percentile_ranks_2017_for_web.pdf). So in 2016 it seems that 150k - 60k = 90k exams were administered. I suspect around 100k MCATs were administered in 2017, though I am not sure. AAMC will release more data in May.
For accepted students, Upstate has a 513 median, buffalo has a 512 median
