new chance predictor?

Started by ilikeninjas
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ilikeninjas said:
Hey everyone,

I don't know how new this website is but it has a chance predictor for med school. The website overall looks pretty legit.

http://prospectivedoctor.com/chance-predictor

all the acceptance chances are so low T_T
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Not overwhelmingly useful given the fact that human beings are evaluating each unique medical school applicant. But I can see it helping save money over reach-school application costs.
 
Bluto385 said:
Not overwhelmingly useful given the fact that human beings are evaluating each unique medical school applicant. But I can see it helping save money over reach-school application costs.
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Yea. All it does is save some time looking at MSAR stats at reach schools.
 
pre med 2014 said:
This is not realistic. A 3.5/30 makes you the weakest applicant at every US medical school, which is hardly the reality

Terrible predictor calculator in my opinion.
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To be fair, a 3.5/30 isn't terribly competitive. Not unlikely to get in, but not impressive either.
 
pre med 2014 said:
This is not realistic. A 3.5/30 makes you the weakest applicant at every US medical school, which is hardly the reality

Terrible predictor calculator in my opinion.
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Considering a 4.0, 4.0, 45 (white) still places you at <50% acceptance chance for 44 medical schools -- yeah, I would say the calculator needs some adjusting.
 
I liked it actually but I'm too lazy to see what the numbers on the side mean.

I think they throw in smaller chances to account against other similar applicants or ECs and other crazy stuff like that. It's good for a baseline for picking schools though.
 
MedPR said:
To be fair, a 3.5/30 isn't terribly competitive. Not unlikely to get in, but not impressive either.
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Agreed, but it's a bit extreme to say that the 3.5/30 for mid/low tier schools is below par/weak.
 
totally tried it lol.. Like another poster said, I'm sure its just a faster version of the MSAR. I don't think it's total BS but it's definitely not perfect either.
 
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MedPR said:
To be fair, a 3.5/30 isn't terribly competitive. Not unlikely to get in, but not impressive either.
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yeah, it's still a little bit better than the average applicant though in terms of MCAT, because according to AAMC data the average applicant has a 3.5 cumulative GPA and 28 MCAT
 
swimmer125 said:
according to AAMC data the average applicant has a 3.5 cumulative GPA and 28 MCAT
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Just wanted to make sure...this is all applicants right? not just accepted ones. It sounds right for all applicants but im pretty sure I saw AAMC say that the statistics of students who get into medical school is a lot higher.

Less than 50% of applicants who apply to med school get in......=[

I think this is fairly accurate. If you have a 3.5/30, ur going to be very weak for top tier, below average for mid tier, and maybe average for low tier....unless u apply to DO or Caribbean that is...
 
dpretzels said:
Just wanted to make sure...this is all applicants right? not just accepted ones. It sounds right for all applicants but im pretty sure I saw AAMC say that the statistics of students who get into medical school is a lot higher.

Less than 50% of applicants who apply to med school get in......=[

I think this is fairly accurate. If you have a 3.5/30, ur going to be very weak for top tier, below average for mid tier, and maybe average for low tier....unless u apply to DO or Caribbean that is...
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Lol I typed in 3.45 gpa, 40MCAT and my race (AA) and I got excellent at almost every school...riiiiight.
 
myronnie said:
Lol I typed in 3.45 gpa, 40MCAT and my race (AA) and I got excellent at almost every school...riiiiight.
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Why is that so strange? Your MCAT score is in the 98th percentile with a below average GPA. It clearly shows you've got the smarts, but maybe you had a tough major or didn't apply yourself enough freshman year. Throw in URM and that's pretty good applicant on numbers alone.
 
dpretzels said:
Just wanted to make sure...this is all applicants right? not just accepted ones. It sounds right for all applicants but im pretty sure I saw AAMC say that the statistics of students who get into medical school is a lot higher.

Less than 50% of applicants who apply to med school get in......=[

I think this is fairly accurate. If you have a 3.5/30, ur going to be very weak for top tier, below average for mid tier, and maybe average for low tier....unless u apply to DO or Caribbean that is...
Click to expand...
those are the stats for all applicants.

the stats for all matriculants (those accepted to a US MD program) are:

science GPA: 3.61
cumulative GPA: 3.67
MCAT: 31
 
That makes sense, when I put those stats in, I get weak/weakest for top tier, par for mid tier, and excellent/great for low tier
 
Not sure why people are bashing this predictor, it seems just a more advanced LizzyM, not sure where the data is coming from but I assume similar numbers. I think it gives a decent overall assessment to where you should apply to, these 'predictors' are never meant for giving chances of acceptance, but more for likelihood of interviews. Predictors will never be perfect obviously, especially for people with wonky stats.
 
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lobo12 said:
Yeah, getting the MSAR is definitely a better way of determining where you have a chance IMO. but this seems cool thanks OP.
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I believe the MSAR is accepted data, not matriculant. That data in the SDN predictor project however is typically more matriculant.

That said, I would personally find accepted data more useful as I am looking for chances of "acceptance." Matriculant data is usually skewed down and can give inflated chances.
 
this chance predictor seems pretty similar to the lizzy M. obviously it would be nice to have the stats of the matriculants for each school but AAMC (through MSAR) seems to have a tight hold on those numbers (does that spreadsheet with all the LizzyM scores and MSAR info still exist?).

this chance predictors real value seems to be in helping you which decide which schools to apply to (similar to the MSAR). The MSAR definitely has more information though.
 
darkjedi said:
That said, I would personally find accepted data more useful as I am looking for chances of "acceptance." Matriculant data is usually skewed down and can give inflated chances.
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Are the chances really inflated? Though some accepted applicants with higher stats will turn down a certain school to create room for future matriculants on a wait list, this typically happens every year. I feel that the matriculant data is just as useful, albeit only for an eventual acceptance that cycle. This is also assuming that the accepted/matriculant stats are relatively static after each year.
 
Bluto385 said:
Are the chances really inflated? Though some accepted applicants with higher stats will turn down a certain school to create room for future matriculants on a wait list, this typically happens every year. I feel that the matriculant data is just as useful, albeit only for an eventual acceptance that cycle. This is also assuming that the accepted/matriculant stats are relatively static after each year.
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From a statistics perspective, in my opinion at least, it just makes more sense to be looking at acceptance data if you are trying to determine if you will be 'accepted'. Matriculant data will be skewed downwards, as you've said, because people with great stats will likely have multiple acceptances and can only attend one school. It seems like bad statistics to toss out the data for top-candidates just because they can only attend one school. While matriculant data might seem to indicate you have a better chance at a certain school, you also have to keep in mind that you have about cut in half (matriculant/acceptee yeild) the number of slots (accepted vs matriculated) you are accounting for. Thus, it gives a false impression of improving your chances, when really the school is looking for higher stats in their acceptees in comparison to their final matriculant stats.
 
I think that matriculant and acceptance data are probably about the same. I understand some people's views that matriculant data are skewed because some people who are accepted choose not to go there. However, I dont think people who choose not to go there have lower GPAs than people who do choose to go there.
 
I don't see how it can deem one as "excellent" and then give them a chance below 10% or "over par" with 3% unless you did absolutely no ECs. I'd pass on this one, it'll just demoralize you.
 
smurfed said:
I don't see how it can deem one as "excellent" and then give them a chance below 10% or "over par" with 3% unless you did absolutely no ECs. I'd pass on this one, it'll just demoralize you.
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Just because you have stats that is above the average of students at a certain school doesnt mean that you have a good shot getting in. Every medical school is extremely competitive and schools do not look just at MCAT and GPA. Even if u are "over-par", statistically u still have very low chance. I know a friend who had 3.9 Science 3.92 Overall and 39 MCAT. He is pretty much "over-par" at every school, but out of 23 schools he applied to, he got into 2....

so yea pretty sad...=/ but that my two cents
 
This thing just goes by race I put in my stats black, 3.6 sciGPA, 3.7 GPA and a 22 MCAT ( This is my range now--- I know I need to bring it up greatly) and it said I still had a chance at several school.
 
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