I think the general consensus (and problem) is that medical school admissions are increasing at a rate faster than new residency spots are created. Thus, it is increasingly difficult to attain a residency spot. This is even seen with prelim years; our school showed us a graph correlating prelim spots to applicants, and in the past there were huge numbers of spots available beyond the number of applicants, but now the lines are almost crossed. This means it is difficult (according to our school) to scramble even a prelim med spot. Prelim surgery still has a good number unfilled every year. This is a serious problem from the applicants standpoint as well as from a social standpoint, where we may have increasing numbers of physicians unable to attain training.