Odds after Interview

[badasshairday]

What are the odds of getting accepted after interview? I see only interview stats with the number of people who matriculate. That makes it seem like the acceptance rate at most schools is like 5%!

They must usually accept more than matriculate, but how many more? Are the chances 10% after interview rather than 5% like it seems like?

If so, that really sucks, because than we still only have a 1/10 chance of getting accepted once we interview...

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[Ohiogeekgirl]

What are the odds of getting accepted after interview? I see only interview stats with the number of people who matriculate. That makes it seem like the acceptance rate at most schools is like 5%!

They must usually accept more than matriculate, but how many more? Are the chances 10% after interview rather than 5% like it seems like?

If so, that really sucks, because than we still only have a 1/10 chance of getting accepted once we interview...

I'd say they're much much higher judging from my UNWR book. These numbers are old (2003) but here are some randomly selected examples:

Harvard: interviewed 722, accepted 250, matriculated 165
U. of Kentucky: interviewed 308, accepted 169, matriculated 95
Temple: interviewed 770, accepted 493, matriculated 177
U. of Michigan: interviewed 672, accepted 403, matriculated 170

So, doing some rough math, it looks like your chances are between 25 and 60% post-interview.

 

[mordounhas]

Depends on the school. US News and World Report has the total number of people interviewed at most schools along with the total number of acceptances. That can give you a rough estimate, but the odds really depend on your application.

 

[etf]

there are no "odds" after an interview - either you sealed the deal or you didn't.

 

[armybound]

there are no "odds" after an interview - either you sealed the deal or you didn't.

well even people who "sealed the deal" might not get an acceptance offer. there are too many qualified applicants for everybody to be offered an acceptance.

 

[etf]

well even people who "sealed the deal" might not get an acceptance offer. there are too many qualified applicants for everybody to be offered an acceptance.

all the more reason to not focus on perceived "odds"

 

[nick_carraway]

Depends on the school but I agree with Ohiogeek. The odds that I've seen are about 50% post-interview. Of course your chances are slimmer if you're OOS for some schools but better if you continually update them.

 

[armybound]

all the more reason to not focus on perceived "odds"

it's nice to know how many get accepted / how many get interviewed.

if a school only interviews 300 and accepts 150, your odds are pretty decent. if they interview 1000 and accept 75.. you're still a long-shot.

 

[jr doctor in sd]

Is it really like almost a total gamble from interviews and onward? Because i've heard people saying interviews went fine with 3.7+ gpas getting into 1-2 schools and people with 3.5's or so getting into alot thinking they didnt do too hot in interviews, etc. luck of the draw i guess

 

[g8terboi]

spend $15 on usnews.com's graudate school rankings. Gives you all the statistics about # of applicants, interviewed, and accepted from 2005.

 

[Tndoorijones]

Just look at their acceptance rate out of total applicants. Then look at how many people they interview if you want to save some money. Otherwise US News Ultimate Guide to Medical Schools is good.

 

[sanchopanza]

While we're on this topic, do you guys know what, in general, are admissions committees procedures in evaluating us post-interview? We can obviously assume that our applications have been read to some degree to grant us an interview--so now are they read in more detail, by more members of the admissions committee, in order to reach a final decision?

I guess I'm curious what differences there are in how the committees evaluate us pre-interview and post-interview.

 

[armybound]

While we're on this topic, do you guys know what, in general, are admissions committees procedures in evaluating us post-interview? We can obviously assume that our applications have been read to some degree to grant us an interview--so now are they read in more detail, by more members of the admissions committee, in order to reach a final decision?

I guess I'm curious what differences there are in how the committees evaluate us pre-interview and post-interview.

Depends on the school..

Some schools only look at interview performance, other schools re-review your entire file and see if you moved up/down their desire scale.

One school I know of only looks at your primary to grant an interview, then a final decision is made based on your primary, secondary, and interview performance.

 

[Law2Doc]

well even people who "sealed the deal" might not get an acceptance offer. there are too many qualified applicants for everybody to be offered an acceptance.

That depends on how you are defining "sealed the deal". If you define it as outshining your competitors, then odds are moot, the war is won.

 

[Law2Doc]

Is it really like almost a total gamble from interviews and onward? Because i've heard people saying interviews went fine with 3.7+ gpas getting into 1-2 schools and people with 3.5's or so getting into alot thinking they didnt do too hot in interviews, etc. luck of the draw i guess

How people think they do in an interview and how they actually do are often two very different things. Best not to look at this as a luck issue and do what you can to practice and prepare for every interview like it is your only one.

 

[TheRealMD]

By the way, I should point out that getting an interview early has a LARGE affect on your chances if a school has rolling admissions.

 

[LEdaddy]

I know of a school that only looks at your primary and secondary materials pre interview. Once you have an interview, the interviewers rate you without knowing your stats. In the end the interview is worth 80% of your admissions ranking. It does vary greatly from school to school and this is one extreme.

 

[blurry]

I'd say in general, with all else being equal, you'll have about a 1/3 chance of being accepted after an interview (this is just a rough number I conjured after browsing through the MSAR briefly). But all else is never equal - the rest of your application (including the timing) weighs in heavily on the final decision of the admissions committee, in which case that 1/3 chance can dramatically increase or decrease accordingly.

 

[mvenus929]

While we're on this topic, do you guys know what, in general, are admissions committees procedures in evaluating us post-interview? We can obviously assume that our applications have been read to some degree to grant us an interview--so now are they read in more detail, by more members of the admissions committee, in order to reach a final decision?

South Carolina told us that the two people you interview with will present you to the admissions committee, based on your interview experience. We were given 15 minutes to meet with as many of the people on the admissions committee as possible right after our interviews, and then they go into voting. After you are presented, everyone votes on you (sounds like on a numerical scale), and if you get higher than the average accepted number last year, you get an acceptance. If not, you get put on hold.

My first interviewer seemed to have read my application pretty in depth, but he was the chair of the admissions committee, so I'm not sure if it because of his position or because he was interviewing me. My second interviewer said that he had read my PS, but that's about it.

 

[Tropicana100]

Based on USNews and MSAR this is what I gather and use to estimate my odds:

Ignoring credentials/stats/interview performance etc., odds after interviews can vary from 10% to 90% depending on the competitiveness of the school and how many they interview (most schools accept about 33% post interview). For rolling schools, your odds are higher at the beginning of the cycle and decline gradually as spots fill the class and more competitive applicants enter the pool (odds after a September interview is probably around 50% and drop 5-10% each month). For non-rolling schools your odds are typically 30%. These are just rough numbers and guidelines. Using this formula you can kind of estimate your chance of getting in if you have multiple interviews:

Odds of getting into at least one school = (A+B+C...)/(A*B*C...)

Each letter represents the percentage of people accepted post interview for a certain school.

 

[medguy83]

I'd say in general, with all else being equal, you'll have about a 1/3 chance of being accepted after an interview (this is just a rough number I conjured after browsing through the MSAR briefly). But all else is never equal - the rest of your application (including the timing) weighs in heavily on the final decision of the admissions committee, in which case that 1/3 chance can dramatically increase or decrease accordingly.

This is pretty accurate. I've read elsewhere and remember adcom members saying your chances of acceptance post-interview are roughly 30-40%. Goes to show you that the interviews do matter. It's the last hill before med school, and nothing is certain until you get that fateful call (or packet).

 

[Kiara08]

so i know that 10/15 is the first day they can offer acceptances, but can they reject you post-interview prior to that date?

 

[mvenus929]

so i know that 10/15 is the first day they can offer acceptances, but can they reject you post-interview prior to that date?

Pretty sure they can, yeah. They can certainly reject you post-secondary before then, so I assume post-interview isn't much different.

 

[Kikaku21]

This is pretty accurate. I've read elsewhere and remember adcom members saying your chances of acceptance post-interview are roughly 30-40%. Goes to show you that the interviews do matter. It's the last hill before med school, and nothing is certain until you get that fateful call (or packet).

This may not actually be true. We know that between 30% and 60% get in post interview, depending on residency status and the actual school you are talking about. We do not know WHY the rejection happens, however. It could be because person X interviews better than person Y. It could also be that they interviewed similarly, in which case the decision probably goes back to the AMCAS/secondary information. Also, its possible that you get an interview even though you never really stood a chance at all.

Its impossible to really know.

 

[Law2Doc]

I know of a school that only looks at your primary and secondary materials pre interview. Once you have an interview, the interviewers rate you without knowing your stats. In the end the interview is worth 80% of your admissions ranking. It does vary greatly from school to school and this is one extreme.

Quite a few schools weight the interview this significantly, having already determined that all the applicants they invite in are deemed adequately acceptable on paper.

Obviously those schools that grant interviews based solely on MCAT scores or state residency instead of a full review are not in this group, and will still have to revisit the paper file.

 

[Kikaku21]

Quite a few schools weight the interview this significantly, having already determined that all the applicants they invite in are deemed adequately acceptable on paper.

Obviously those schools that grant interviews based solely on MCAT scores or state residency instead of a full review are not in this group, and will still have to revisit the paper file.

And some schools you just don't know. Like Pritzker. How do they weight the interview? I haven't a clue.

 

[45408]

so i know that 10/15 is the first day they can offer acceptances, but can they reject you post-interview prior to that date?

I doubt it. Most (rolling) schools just start sending out all their notices right around that time.