Having just undergone match myself, so many factors besides prestige dictate your rank list. Distance to support systems, fulfillment of niche interests, accessibility to hobbies and distance to airports, etc. Not sure this can be interpreted in the tea leaves of the match list. I interviewed at several programs in the top 20 for my specialty, ranked them all lower than my state's flagship and am over the moon with how the match turned out.
The NRMP is starting to report on each schools individual match outcomes, this alongside things like residency explorer and charting outcomes should really be the most important factors in understanding the match. Not necessarily a school's match list.