For most IM folks applying for subspecialties, it's do or die. You either get to do what you really want to do, or not (and go into general IM practice)... Even if not, you can always try again next year. It's at a stage where you will be perfectly fine from career standpoint even if you dont match, and most people who are in IM programs should be in a situation to be a good internist even if they dont become a specialist. I dont see any reason to "safey".
The biggest rise to the number of applications after introduction of ERAS relates to the ease of people applying to multiple programs with a few mouse clicks. Imagine if you are doing paper apps, how many programs would you apply to? I know for certain I would not have applied to some programs I ended up applied to, but did anyways becuz it's just much easier with a cliick, and you get 10 programs at base cost anyways. And this especially made life easier for FMG's where nothing is certain, I have heard of stories of FMG's now can spam like 50 or 60 apps now in some competitive specialties with ERAS. Crazy stuff.