- Joined
- Aug 17, 2012
- Messages
- 2,222
- Reaction score
- 2,815
Can somebody explain? obviously bad for pacira based on stock price response.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102467536
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102467536
Chevron's market cap is 198 billion - vs 3.44 billion for Pacira. If you buy one share of Chevron for $100, you own 1/1.88 billionth of the company. If you buy 1 share of Pacira, you own 1/36 millionth of a company. That is a huge difference. A $100 dollar buy of Pacira gets you a lot more ownership of the company then owing 1 share of Chevron.
Chevron's market cap is 198 billion - vs 3.44 billion for Pacira. If you buy one share of Chevron for $100, you own 1/1.88 billionth of the company. If you buy 1 share of Pacira, you own 1/36 millionth of a company. That is a huge difference. A $100 dollar buy of Pacira gets you a lot more ownership of the company then owing 1 share of Chevron.
Yahoo said:Exparel, which was approved in April 2012 for post-surgical pain, generated 95 percent of Pacira's nearly $197.6 million in revenue last year.
I wonder if Organon would be around still, if they'd been a one-trick-pony in 2001, and not a diversified pharmaceutical company with 80 years of success behind them.
What is? Rapacuronium? I didn't know that was available anywhere.It is marketed in the EU though
It's OK if a drug doesn't work, as long as it's safe?I'm wondering if safety wasn't the issue but lack of efficacy in their submitted trials. I suspect their phase 3 trial for Femoral nerve block indication didn't impress the FDA. It's too bad the FDA has to look at efficacy and safety as Exparel is a safe drug.
Weren't you like 300% convinced that it was going to get approved?I'm wondering if safety wasn't the issue but lack of efficacy in their submitted trials. I suspect their phase 3 trial for Femoral nerve block indication didn't impress the FDA. It's too bad the FDA has to look at efficacy and safety as Exparel is a safe drug.
So what you're saying is, it's cool that Pacira just keeps losing money hand over fist, because their hands are small?
You were so, so, so sure that the FDA would jump on board with Exparel for PNBs. Like it was inevitable, a total no-brainer, just like "buy low sell high" is an obvious no brainer, easy in theory, not easy in practice. Can you now at least admit you're just gambling with this stock pick?
I wonder if Organon would be around still, if they'd been a one-trick-pony in 2001, and not a diversified pharmaceutical company with 80 years of success behind them.
Weren't you like 300% convinced that it was going to get approved?
Weren't you doing TAP blocks with it?
PS: I asked the regional "experts" at the last ASA about exparel and TAP blocks and they accused me of heresy for mentioning both together.
I wasn't sure at all. I thought it very likely the FDA would require more data. I would like to know why they denied the sNDA. The FDA is not a reputable bunch, so who knows what they will do, whose money has influenced them, etc.
Also, I wasn't saying anything about PCRX being a better buy than Chevron - just pointing out that there is more to it then just comparing price. I still think it is a good buy - better today. There is no way that 20$ of the stock price was based on a nerve block indication that was only going to produce 10% revenues. This is just over reaction - and probably some more over reaction coming - but good chance to buy a dip.
Really? I wonder why. He must not be much of an expert. Most experts don't make ridiculous comments like that.
It's a "growth" stock. People are doing mental calculations on future sales and rates of increase that can continue forever and projecting what that might be worth in today's dollars. Unfortunately if the calculation is off by a little, the value of the purchase can come crashing down. That's why the stock price plunged. It's because the people willing to believe anything about the future growth of the company are now starting to question it just a little after today's FDA letter. I mean as it currently stands the company probably isn't worth more than $1-5 a share. It's only the hope of future revenue growth that drives it to astronomical valuations. If they were to get rebuked by the FDA again, you'd probably see a further 20-50% drop in the stock price. Why? Because almost all the revenue they take in as a company is from Exparel. If they can no longer have massive potential growth of that drug, all of a sudden they are just another little company hemorrhaging money and not a hot growth stock with unlimited potential.
What exactly is the stock price based on then? It surely isn't based on anything the company has ever done. I mean if your neighbor offered to sell you his home business that has lost money every year it's ever run, would you be jumping at the bit?
It's a "growth" stock. People are doing mental calculations on future sales and rates of increase that can continue forever and projecting what that might be worth in today's dollars. Unfortunately if the calculation is off by a little, the value of the purchase can come crashing down. That's why the stock price plunged. It's because the people willing to believe anything about the future growth of the company are now starting to question it just a little after today's FDA letter. I mean as it currently stands the company probably isn't worth more than $1-5 a share. It's only the hope of future revenue growth that drives it to astronomical valuations. If they were to get rebuked by the FDA again, you'd probably see a further 20-50% drop in the stock price. Why? Because almost all the revenue they take in as a company is from Exparel. If they can no longer have massive potential growth of that drug, all of a sudden they are just another little company hemorrhaging money and not a hot growth stock with unlimited potential.
As for comparing Pacira to Chevron, of course there is more to comparing them than price. That's why I brought up the financials and debt positions of the companies. The only way Pacira is equally valued "per share" (like they are now) is if you believe Pacira will have unbelievable growth in the future and for a long time. Could it happen? Of course it could. Personally I'm not betting on it, but it could happen.
Blade is always 300% sure of everything stock related ... what he's sure of just changes from time to time.Weren't you like 300% convinced that it was going to get approved?
Weren't you like 300% convinced that it was going to get approved?
Weren't you doing TAP blocks with it?
PS: I asked the regional "experts" at the last ASA about exparel and TAP blocks and they accused me of heresy for mentioning both together.
I thought you were talking about suggamadexWhat is? Rapacuronium? I didn't know that was available anywhere.
It's really only the hope of the future that it is based on.
4. I was hoping to expand my use of Exparel to other Nerve blocks once it got FDA approval; I will be waiting for FDA approval next year to do ISB/SCB/ICB/Femoral with Exparel.
What is the stock price based on? In my mind, the stock price - of ANY company is never based on anything that resembles reality.
I'd agree that sometimes stock prices (and the market in general) can do that, but I believe that many stocks are priced rationally most of the time. The nice thing about the stock market is that nobody forces me to buy or sell anything, it's merely a price offered for something I can either take or leave. That's what I prefer to purchase stock in companies that are fundamentally sound and profitable and for whatever reason happen to be temporarily mispriced at what I believe is a discount to their actual value. Disney is a company that is going to be around for a long time making a lot of money. I personally believe it's a bit too pricey to buy right now, but if they saw a 20-30% drop for whatever temporary reason, I'd probably swoop in and buy a bunch at a discount. I have lots of companies I watch and wait for to see when the price goes on sale enough to get me to buy.
Speculating on the growth of companies that haven't shown the consistent ability to make a profit isn't up my alley, although others do like to do it.
Sell puts for dividend paying stocks. It is free money.
If you search on Amazon.com for books on options, of the thousands on buying/selling calls, there is maybe 4 on selling puts. I need to write a book.
It is free money.
Let's say you think buying ABT at $46 is a great deal - in other words, wether the stock drops or not, you are committed to the idea of owning ABT at $46. So you buy 500 shares. $23000. Over 5 months, the stock drops to $44. You have a loss (assuming you sell) of $1000.
Now, say you decided to sell puts on 5 contracts at $2. You can either use ABT stock you purchase at $46, or your MCD dividend paying stock as your collateral. Anyway, that will give you $1000. If the stock does nothing, or rises, or only sinks 1.99 or less, you make $1000 regardless because the puts expire worthless. That is free money. It is time value money that people give you that shrinks to nothing with time. If the stock tanks, you were commited to owning the stock at the higher price anyway, so you haven't loss anything you otherwise weren't committed to.
If that isn't free money....
selling naked puts is a high risk high reward strategy that works till it doesn't. Lots of people like it because you often "get paid to wait" and frequently get to own a company that you wouldn't mind owning anyway. The problem is that when the risks of this strategy show up it is almost always the worst time- during major market selloffs when there are lots of things that are attractive to buy. Your capital is committed to buying the stock. Opportunity cost. Also the issue of single company risk which is very real. Risk and reward are inexorably intertwined. Just because one is not aware of the risks does't mean that they are not present.
Explain to me how there is more risk then owning the stock? It is the same risk. If it drops, it drops. That risk exists unless you do a spread where you define the risk. You would have had the risk owning the stock.
Here is another way to think about it. Selling insurance has risk...especially if everyone's home burns down. However, the most profitable companies year after year are insurance companies. We should all make our own insurance company. However, we don't have the capital to do so. But guess what - the stock market lets you be your own insurance company, selling as much as you want and you collect premiums based on your capital amount. That's pretty cool.
although I do suspect there is a reason there are only 4 books on Amazon.
Dr Doze, that is an interesting point about when it goes bad, it is the worst time.
Although you don't have to always buy the stock, you can buy back the put.
Bought PCRX today at $90, sold at $93...perfect scalp.
I agree, it isn't wise - but as that article dr doze linked pointed out - it was fun.
Bought PCRX today at $90, sold at $93...perfect scalp.
I agree, it isn't wise - but as that article dr doze linked pointed out - it was fun.