Based on projected "qualified" applicants, which looks to have held true, there should not be a shortage for the class of 2012. There are 525 active seats and there should be around 500 graduates (508 was projected). If 50 students really did fail part II, twice then there will be seats for all but 24 of the 599 CASPR applicants.
The people who will complain about the "shortage" this year are the folks applying from previous cycles (70 individuals who are included in the above 599 number).
The real "shortage" is potentially going to happen next year when an estimated 571 students will be "qualified" just from the class of 2013. We'll see how many seats they can add in the next year I guess...