hi magree,
its really hard to say b/c ot varies from year to year and there are always people who switch specialties
however, most amgs who want to do psych do so right from pgy1 so yes, it would in general be easier to get a pgy2 spot--especially at places that have a lot of them (yale and univ of wash, plus i think pittsbirgh will have some openings this year--insider info)
but if you apply during a weird year where a lot of people are switching say out of surgery, then i guess not
the academic programs are really competitive, but if you dont particularly care about a research/academic year, there are lots of spots out there at good, solid programs, many of which are university affiliated