Plan B if things go down the drain?

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Whatever site that is that modeled safe withdrawal rates also modeled asset allocation. Their conclusion was that after retirement your highest odds of success are if you let your asset allocation drift towards 100% equities during retirement and use bonds to pay the bills during any down years the first 3-8 )or however long those funds last) years.
EctopicFetus said:
I’m familiar with the models. Reality is no one knows or can predict. IMO 4% is failry safe if you retire in your 50s. again just my opinion. some people do 3% or 2.5% but reality is those people are doing that simply because they can. Frankly I hope to retire where my withdrawal rate will be under 2%. that has more to do with my spending and amount I hope to have when I retire than how much I think I need. I also will then be able to leave a huge chunk of my money invested in the market cause I can withstand the ups and downs. Lets say you believe in the 80/20 stock / bond split. Lets say you needed 500k to retire. This split could look like 400k stock 100k bonds today. If you got to $1m you could leave the 100k in bonds and 900k in stocks. I am not a believer in getting ultra conservative as i near retirement with my investments but I think thats cause I believe I will have more than enough. Time will tell.

The gloom and doom on here has a good place where it is coming from but we always fret when change is in front of us.

In the end M4A would decimate insurers, big pharma etc. Keep in mind thats 17% of our economy. we would have a collapse if this went thru as a full bore m4A model. IMO there is nothing to it. The BB legistlation is the real scary and more likely event which will negatively impact us. Something will pass. It will hurt us. The question is how bad.

Again, may hay while the sun is shining. Clouds are on the horizon.
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TooMuchResearch said:
Whatever site that is that modeled safe withdrawal rates also modeled asset allocation. Their conclusion was that after retirement your highest odds of success are if you let your asset allocation drift towards 100% equities during retirement and use bonds to pay the bills during any down years the first 3-8 )or however long those funds last) years.
Click to expand...
Was a theoretical research paper. Yes equities outperform bonds but if you have 100% equities there are no funds from bonds to pay bills in down years. Hence I think if if you do 80/20 you can withdraw based on prior year performance to maintain your mix. It is it’s own theoretical thing on how to withdraw and from where. My goal is to have more money than I need so I don’t need to budget. 🙂
 
I interpreted as if you have enough in bonds to get yourself out of a sequence of returns jam early on, you can afford to draw from equities in later down years.
EctopicFetus said:
Was a theoretical research paper. Yes equities outperform bonds but if you have 100% equities there are no funds from bonds to pay bills in down years. Hence I think if if you do 80/20 you can withdraw based on prior year performance to maintain your mix. It is it’s own theoretical thing on how to withdraw and from where. My goal is to have more money than I need so I don’t need to budget. 🙂
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VA Hopeful Dr said:
You have a crappy credit card if that's your interest rate. Also its not hard to fine ones that give you a several month grace period for major purchases. Mine has, in order, 10% and 60 days.
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10% is still outrageous. Secondly, if you are paying monthly interest, even at 10%, you are getting screwed. If you are paying interest on credit cards, you clearly cant afford what you bought and are being exploited.
 
Angus Avagadro said:
10% is still outrageous. Secondly, if you are paying monthly interest, even at 10%, you are getting screwed. If you are paying interest on credit cards, you clearly cant afford what you bought and are being exploited.
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You must have missed the 0% interest for up to 2 years cards I linked earlier
 
I just moved (sold my place furnished) so opened a Chase Freedom card with 0% interest on new purchases for 15 months. I also get 3% cash back on purchases up to $20,000 so I'm going to put all my new furniture on it. An easy way to get a 3% discount on a large purchase.
 
VA Hopeful Dr said:
You must have missed the 0% interest for up to 2 years cards I linked earlier
Click to expand...
Just looked at chase, 3% transfer fee for any balance .15 month grace at 0%. IF you qualify for 10k in credit, as in above Plumbing nightmare, it would be reasonable. Not sure all plumbers take credit cards for amounts like that. Also, wasnt able to determine if there is a penalty for canceling after 15 mos. You are right, it would be a cheap way borrow a large sum, IF you knew about it ahead of time AND you could qualify for that much credit. Nothing is free and there usually a catch. I would be suspicious with a large purchase. Interesting ,though, thanks for the link. Rather than cash back, I prefer airline cards with mileage awards. Flying to Europe business class on points next year.
 
Start your own EMS company, ideally while still working in the ED. If you can pull this off, might give you some leverage over the c suite. If admin gives you lip, you simply threaten to take away your EMS traffic to another hospital.
 
GeneralVeers said:
I just moved (sold my place furnished) so opened a Chase Freedom card with 0% interest on new purchases for 15 months. I also get 3% cash back on purchases up to $20,000 so I'm going to put all my new furniture on it. An easy way to get a 3% discount on a large purchase.
Click to expand...
The 3% cash back sounds good. Question for you and others though who have been talking about buying things on credit.... Why? Do you not have enough liquid assets to buy these things outright? Are you just using the temporary 0% apr to keep your money in an interest bearing account or other investment as a way of saving some money?
 
If I’m not mistaken, veers meant using the credit card to buy things only when you have the cash on hand so you pay off the card right away without accruing interest, but get all the perks the card gives in the form of miles or cash back or travel rewards...
 
bravotwozero said:
If I’m not mistaken, veers meant using the credit card to buy things only when you have the cash on hand so you pay off the card right away without accruing interest, but get all the perks the card gives in the form of miles or cash back or travel rewards...
Click to expand...

Correct. You get a 3% discount using the card, then pay it off entirely before the 0% interest period expires. It's a lot better than paying full retail, and a lot better than getting 1 mile/dollar which a lot of rewards cards offer.
 
bravotwozero said:
Start your own EMS company, ideally while still working in the ED. If you can pull this off, might give you some leverage over the c suite. If admin gives you lip, you simply threaten to take away your EMS traffic to another hospital.
Click to expand...

You don't need to own the EMS service for that. Simply being their medical director gives you the authority.
 
GeneralVeers said:
Correct. You get a 3% discount using the card, then pay it off entirely before the 0% interest period expires. It's a lot better than paying full retail, and a lot better than getting 1 mile/dollar which a lot of rewards cards offer.
Click to expand...

Credit to Mrs. Fox for teaching me this trick. We have enjoyed so many perks because of this same mechanism. I was such a Luddite about this in our days as an-not-yet-married couple in my early attendinghood.

RF: "I'm not buying this furniture! We can't afford it yet!"

MF: "You are an idiot. Do this."

RF: (7 years later): "I was an idiot."
 
RustedFox said:
Credit to Mrs. Fox for teaching me this trick. We have enjoyed so many perks because of this same mechanism. I was such a Luddite about this in our days as an-not-yet-married couple in my early attendinghood.

RF: "I'm not buying this furniture! We can't afford it yet!"

MF: "You are an idiot. Do this."

RF: (7 years later): "I was an idiot."
Click to expand...

When I built my house I had to buy tons of light fixtures, appliances, and electronics. I took out 4 credit cards at 0% for up to 18 months. I put $140K on them, and then paid them all off before they were due. It really helped me with the cash flow for construction, and for many I got rewards points, or other perks and it cost me nothing. I just think of it as a no-interest loan.
 
bravotwozero said:
Start your own EMS company, ideally while still working in the ED. If you can pull this off, might give you some leverage over the c suite. If admin gives you lip, you simply threaten to take away your EMS traffic to another hospital.
Click to expand...

Most ems companies in my area have shut down since Obamacare after decline in reimbursement for inter facility transportation. The ones my hospital system is running is barely breaking even right now. Three to big private ambulance companies went out of business in the last 5 years.
 
GeneralVeers said:
Correct. You get a 3% discount using the card, then pay it off entirely before the 0% interest period expires. It's a lot better than paying full retail, and a lot better than getting 1 mile/dollar which a lot of rewards cards offer.
Click to expand...

I’ve been cycling the reward cards, and you can do a lot better than 1 mile/dollar if you’re willing to rotate cards for the introductory rewards. This podcast is dated but the concept is still dead on:

www.choosefi.com

Ep 009 | Travel Rewards: How To Travel The World For Almost Free (The Easy Way)

Travel rewards can dramatically enhance your travel experience and save you money. Jonathan and Brad share the practical strategies for maximizing credit card rewards. From understanding the Chase Ultimate Rewards program to sharing personal success stories, These travel rewards tips can...
www.choosefi.com www.choosefi.com

It’s really pretty easy and some of the rewards are pretty lucrative. So far I’ve done the following cards:
Chase sapphire reserve (for self and then spouse separately)
Citi AAdvantage (for self and then spouse separately)
Amex bonvoy business (for one of my LLCs)
Chase Ink business
Amex Delta Gold business

Using those rewards I’ve been able to do the following for free:
Flight to Orlando for 10 people
Flights to Barbados for 2
Flights to Miami for 2
Multiple hotel rooms and car rentals

Still have 80k delta miles, 120k bonvoy points, and 170k chase reward points leftover.

It can be a little bit of a hassle switching cards but I have to admit it’s been fun racking all that stuff up.
 
Hercules said:
I’ve been cycling the reward cards, and you can do a lot better than 1 mile/dollar if you’re willing to rotate cards for the introductory rewards. This podcast is dated but the concept is still dead on:

www.choosefi.com

Ep 009 | Travel Rewards: How To Travel The World For Almost Free (The Easy Way)

Travel rewards can dramatically enhance your travel experience and save you money. Jonathan and Brad share the practical strategies for maximizing credit card rewards. From understanding the Chase Ultimate Rewards program to sharing personal success stories, These travel rewards tips can...
www.choosefi.com www.choosefi.com

It’s really pretty easy and some of the rewards are pretty lucrative. So far I’ve done the following cards:
Chase sapphire reserve (for self and then spouse separately)
Citi AAdvantage (for self and then spouse separately)
Amex bonvoy business (for one of my LLCs)
Chase Ink business
Amex Delta Gold business

Using those rewards I’ve been able to do the following for free:
Flight to Orlando for 10 people
Flights to Barbados for 2
Flights to Miami for 2
Multiple hotel rooms and car rentals

Still have 80k delta miles, 120k bonvoy points, and 170k chase reward points leftover.

It can be a little bit of a hassle switching cards but I have to admit it’s been fun racking all that stuff up.
Click to expand...
Used to churn a bit in residency, but now I just have Chase Sapphire Reserve. Been racking up tons of points traveling for work. Multiple transoceanic flights for free.
 
I use the following cards:

City Prestige for Dining 5X points/dollar
Amex Platinum for 5X points/dollar on Flights
Amex Gold for 4X points/dollar on Groceries (also has 4X on Dining)
Amex Blue for Business 2X points on all other purchases

I have a Chase Sapphire which I use rarely now, as both the Citi Prestige and Amex Gold are superior for dining
 
At least we aren't pharmacists. Shudder. No Plan B there.
 
GeneralVeers said:
I use the following cards:

City Prestige for Dining 5X points/dollar
Amex Platinum for 5X points/dollar on Flights
Amex Gold for 4X points/dollar on Groceries (also has 4X on Dining)
Amex Blue for Business 2X points on all other purchases

I have a Chase Sapphire which I use rarely now, as both the Citi Prestige and Amex Gold are superior for dining
Click to expand...

Not sure I get the strategy behind using multiple credit cards. You’ll end up splitting your points between them instead of accumulating enough in one card to actually qualify for rewards..
 
bravotwozero said:
Not sure I get the strategy behind using multiple credit cards. You’ll end up splitting your points between them instead of accumulating enough in one card to actually qualify for rewards..
Click to expand...
I think you underestimate how much some people spend.
 
GeneralVeers said:
Correct. You get a 3% discount using the card, then pay it off entirely before the 0% interest period expires. It's a lot better than paying full retail, and a lot better than getting 1 mile/dollar which a lot of rewards cards offer.
Click to expand...

Since when was any chase credit card offering 3 percent cash back?

The highest consistent cash back I've seen is 2.5% alliant credit card and one of the bank of America cards if you're a platinum rewards member
 
I personally now use alliant 2.5 percent cash back for everything, including paying for my quarterly taxes (1.87 percent fee for paying taxes with a credit card).

Amazon 5 percent store card for Amazon.

Discover and Chase freedom revolving 5 percent occasionally for their 5 percent categories.

And citi Costco card for travel and gas - 4% cash back.

I'll probably generate 5-6k in cashback this year mostly because of tax payments with credit. Most of the added cost of processing fees for tax payment will also be a tax deductible business expense which the IRS allows per their website.
 
5% Amazon for Amazon. 2% Fidelity Visa for everything else.
cyanide12345678 said:
I personally now use alliant 2.5 percent cash back for everything, including paying for my quarterly taxes (1.87 percent fee for paying taxes with a credit card).

Amazon 5 percent store card for Amazon.

Discover and Chase freedom revolving 5 percent occasionally for their 5 percent categories.

And citi Costco card for travel and gas - 4% cash back.

I'll probably generate 5-6k in cashback this year mostly because of tax payments with credit. Most of the added cost of processing fees for tax payment will also be a tax deductible business expense which the IRS allows per their website.
Click to expand...
 
cyanide12345678 said:
Since when was any chase credit card offering 3 percent cash back?

The highest consistent cash back I've seen is 2.5% alliant credit card and one of the bank of America cards if you're a platinum rewards member
Click to expand...

www.nerdwallet.com

Chase Freedom Unlimited Card Review - NerdWallet

The Chase Freedom Unlimited starts with a rich welcome offer, but its useful bonus categories and flexible rewards make it a winner among cash-back cards.
www.nerdwallet.com www.nerdwallet.com
 
bravotwozero said:
Not sure I get the strategy behind using multiple credit cards. You’ll end up splitting your points between them instead of accumulating enough in one card to actually qualify for rewards..
Click to expand...

All three major points currencies (Chase, Amex, Citi) are transferrable to multiple airlines. All of them, for example can transfer to Singapore airlines. I can spend across multiple cards, and combine my points into a single Singapore Air account which i can use on international award redemptions on a number of airlines.
 
GeneralVeers said:
www.nerdwallet.com

Chase Freedom Unlimited Card Review - NerdWallet

The Chase Freedom Unlimited starts with a rich welcome offer, but its useful bonus categories and flexible rewards make it a winner among cash-back cards.
www.nerdwallet.com www.nerdwallet.com
Click to expand...

Not that great compared to the the alliant cash back card.

3 percent cash back with no limit for first year, annual fee waived first year.

2.5% cash back after the first year, no limit, $99 annual fee.

If you spend >20k annually, then it makes mathematical sense compared to the no annual fee 2% cash back cards.
 
cyanide12345678 said:
Not that great compared to the the alliant cash back card.

3 percent cash back with no limit for first year, annual fee waived first year.

2.5% cash back after the first year, no limit, $99 annual fee.

If you spend >20k annually, then it makes mathematical sense compared to the no annual fee 2% cash back cards.
Click to expand...

Right but I can't put 20K on it interest free for 15 months.
 
Pharmacy suffered from degree inflation it was a job that didn’t need a doctorate then all of a sudden you have all these schools come in. Also the barrier to get in wasn’t hard at all.

Better to be an MRI tech make 90k with a bachelors
 
Brigade4Radiant said:
Pharmacy suffered from degree inflation it was a job that didn’t need a doctorate then all of a sudden you have all these schools come in. Also the barrier to get in wasn’t hard at all.

Better to be an MRI tech make 90k with a bachelors
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Damn mri techs make that much? It's probably a ridiculously relaxing job where they probably just sit around on their phone all day.

I wish i got paid to do nothing.
 
P
cyanide12345678 said:
Damn mri techs make that much? It's probably a ridiculously relaxing job where they probably just sit around on their phone all day.

I wish i got paid to do nothing.
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Well avg 70k but actually you just need an associates

PT and OT want doctorates with no pay increase soon the system will collapse.
 
I wonder if we should have all become meteorologists. You screw up in our field, people die and you get sued.

You screw up as a weatherman, at worst you’ll have a few golfers cursing your name and you still get paid a 6 plus figure salary....
 
On the bright side
bravotwozero said:
I wonder if we should have all become meteorologists. You screw up in our field, people die and you get sued.

You screw up as a weatherman, at worst you’ll have a few golfers cursing your name and you still get paid a 6 plus figure salary....
Click to expand...

A pilot was telling me that these weather men are usually only right 60 percent of the times.
 
I know you were being facetious, but weather prediction science is a field that has seen immense improvements as their models have analyzed more data.
bravotwozero said:
I wonder if we should have all become meteorologists. You screw up in our field, people die and you get sued.

You screw up as a weatherman, at worst you’ll have a few golfers cursing your name and you still get paid a 6 plus figure salary....
Click to expand...
 
cyanide12345678 said:
So anyone here have a plan B for their lives if our field went down the sh** hole? Let's say the following happens over the next 5 years:

1) The law passes where out of network billing is at 125% of median in network and reimbursement starts to decline

2) 100+ new hca and cmg sponsored new residencies open and the market is flooded with new grads

3) CMGs continue taking over SDG contacts and replacing doctors with MLPs, leading to decreased physician demand.

Let's say our worst possible scenario happens and compensation drops to around 150/hour in most places.

What's next? Anyone with an exit strategy or plan B here? Or would you just suck it up and keep grinding?
Click to expand...

What makes you think 150/hr is worst case scenario?
If the US copies, for example, Germany’s healthcare which is a compulsory, universal multipayer healthcare system...you will be paid about $35/hr and pay higher taxes too.

Did you know a general practitioner there sees 243 patients on average per week? If your ER shift is similar volume as a clinic and you work 5 shifts a week, that's 48.6 patients per shift. ( Primary Care in Germany | European forum for primary care )

Guess how much they get paid? 4000 euros/month to a maximum of 7000 euros/month in 12 years of practice. You then pay 40% of tax overall on that. THat means, after TWELVE YEARS as a physician, you get a measly sum of $54,902 USD of after-tax income per YEAR. ( Income of medical doctors in Germany )

Did you know 40 percent of doctors in German municipal clinics work 49 to 59 hours a week? That one in five doctors had even higher weekly averages of 60 to 80 working hours, including all services and overtime? You add that up, that leaves only 40 percent of doctors working LESS than 49 hours a week. That is absolutely disgusting for how low they get paid.
So, if you do the math of 7000 euro per month divided by a 50 hr workweek you get 35 usd/hourly pay. ( Doctors in German municipal clinics to be on strike amid wage dispute - Xinhua | English.news.cn )

Also, things are perpetually so bad that German doctors went on STRIKE back in April of this year. To demand a measly 5% pay raise, asking for caps on the number of hours they are forced to work, asking they be paid extra if forced to be on call, and asking for at least two weekends free per month!! ( German doctors walk off job in nationwide strike)

Yeah, THIS is a worst case scenario that actually exists in real life. Better think hard on your plan B after the 2020 election.
 
wamcp said:
What makes you think 150/hr is worst case scenario?
If the US copies, for example, Germany’s healthcare which is a compulsory, universal multipayer healthcare system...you will be paid about $35/hr and pay higher taxes too.

Did you know a general practitioner there sees 243 patients on average per week? If your ER shift is similar volume as a clinic and you work 5 shifts a week, that's 48.6 patients per shift. ( Primary Care in Germany | European forum for primary care )

Guess how much they get paid? 4000 euros/month to a maximum of 7000 euros/month in 12 years of practice. You then pay 40% of tax overall on that. THat means, after TWELVE YEARS as a physician, you get a measly sum of $54,902 USD of after-tax income per YEAR. ( Income of medical doctors in Germany )

Did you know 40 percent of doctors in German municipal clinics work 49 to 59 hours a week? That one in five doctors had even higher weekly averages of 60 to 80 working hours, including all services and overtime? You add that up, that leaves only 40 percent of doctors working LESS than 49 hours a week. That is absolutely disgusting for how low they get paid.
So, if you do the math of 7000 euro per month divided by a 50 hr workweek you get 35 usd/hourly pay. ( Doctors in German municipal clinics to be on strike amid wage dispute - Xinhua | English.news.cn )

Also, things are perpetually so bad that German doctors went on STRIKE back in April of this year. To demand a measly 5% pay raise, asking for caps on the number of hours they are forced to work, asking they be paid extra if forced to be on call, and asking for at least two weekends free per month!! ( German doctors walk off job in nationwide strike)

Yeah, THIS is a worst case scenario that actually exists in real life. Better think hard on your plan B after the 2020 election.
Click to expand...

I suspect our physician work force would scatter to the winds if this situation became a reality in the US.
 
namethatsmell said:
I suspect our physician work force would scatter to the winds if this situation became a reality in the US.
Click to expand...

Yes. I don't think many of us would waste the time and med school years necessary to do this. The other element not factored-in is Tort Reform. We are unable to get any meaningful national reform, which means doctor salaries have to stay high to compensate for the liability risk.
 
southerndoc said:
Or just replace us with PA's and NP's.
Click to expand...
then the few of us left behind would run a cash practice and have enough business for several lifetimes.
 
The only realistic scenario I can think of where the average physician salary goes to 70k/yr is a legit 1929-style depression. Short of that, if salaries dropped that low we'd all be looking for jobs at FANG or startups, become plumbers, or become lawyers to litigate the fresh wave of malpractice that would arise.

Also, what would happen to nursing salaries? Many hospitals currently offer them 70k/yr or more and cannot recruit. So let's say their pay was only cut down 50% to 35k/yr...how many competent people would choose to be an ER nurse getting assaulted and harassed by patients on a Saturday night? Zero. They'd drive for Uber so at least they could listen to music.
 
RustedFox said:
Sorry; what's FANG?
Click to expand...

I think it's what the kids these days are calling Facebook, Apple, Netflix and Google or shorthand for the hot places to try to get hired in Silicon Valley.
 
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