Predict the future!

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The internet is a wonderful invention. I'll put my money on the guy that is well documented and ridiculed for laying out exactly how and why are economy will imminently collapse BEFORE it collapsed and not bet on any of these idiots like Bernanke who never saw it coming, told us how strong and solid the economy was, and now supposedly has all the answers, as well as any of these political jerkoffs like Obama whose primary goal is reelection through catering to special interests like Fannie/Freddie and unions.
 
Schiff is hardly the flavor of the month, and a "salesman" I guess if you don't understand him or economics. He's been making your "experts" look like idiots for many years, not month. It's no secret real estate is greatly overpriced, yet Democrat and Republican fools are sinking us further into the abyss by trying to refloat a real estate bubble instead of letting it find its market price. There is no free lunch. Artificially propping up home prices comes at a greater cost.

Infinite debt with eventually no means to even pay the interest, let alone the principle, paid with money printing leads to dollar devaluation. That's not a prediction; it's a simple fact. It's occurred many many dozens of times in history without one single situation where such a foolish ponzi has worked (it's impossible to ever work. ponzis can't be sustained. not a prediction. fact). Everything you list is a deflationary drop in real value, not nominal value. Without a serious change in Obamanomic stupidity, there still would be a massive inflation of the money supply leading to dollar devaluation.

Throwing out random stats is pretty meaningless without the full picture. Japan owes the money mostly to themselves, and they don't have some bogus made-up concept known as a "consumer economy." We are increasingly in debt and owned by the world, and kept afloat by a giant ponzi known as the above mentioned bullshet "consumer economy." We are seriously screwed and lead by politicians trying every idiot move in the book for short term gain (ie, reelection) at the expense of long term collapse.

Nobody has ever borrowed, printed, and wasted money as a means to prosperity. That's not much of a prediction either. Just a simple mathematical impossibility. Put in basic terms, would a broke bankrupt individual practicing personal Obamanomics work his way out of debt by borrowing increasingly more money and then throwing the overwhelming majority of that cash into a burning fireplace? It's not much of a prediction to say no it won't help him, and it won't help the US with the government practicing the same policy on a grander scale. If you can prove that mathematically impossible concept has ever or would ever work, I'll forward you my income for the remainder of my lifetime.

The only possible way to keep ahead of this ponzi is through economic growth with significant technological advances. That's like likely to occur when you are buried further in debt and blowing what limited resources are left on consumer junk that returns nothing. But ponzi-ing your way further into the ponzi, as Obama is doing dropping trillions like they are quarters, is heading you further down the hole potentially making 2008 and 2009 look like a cakewalk compared to where this ugliness is heading.

I assume that you put your money where your mouth is. Therefore your investment portfolio consists solely of Gold, commodities, international stocks and bonds, and ZERO (or ideally short) US stocks and bonds. My point is not about economics. It is about investing. Everyone knows his arguments. They are already built into asset prices, the dollar, commodities, etc.

"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable"...John Kenneth Galbraith
 
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The internet is a wonderful invention. I'll put my money on the guy that is well documented and ridiculed for laying out exactly how and why are economy will imminently collapse BEFORE it collapsed and not bet on any of these idiots like Bernanke who never saw it coming, told us how strong and solid the economy was, and now supposedly has all the answers, as well as any of these political jerkoffs like Obama whose primary goal is reelection through catering to special interests like Fannie/Freddie and unions.

I thought his primary goal was to redistribute wealth to the people he used to 'community organize'/help avoid honest work.
 
I assume that you put your money where your mouth is.

"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable"...John Kenneth Galbraith

I apologize for sounding pissed at you. I'm seathing mad at being forced to participate in the US debt ponzi against my will and forced to pay for other peoples losses (bailouts) when they weren't ever going to cut me in on their gains. I had free will to bypass the dotcom and real estate bubbles, but everyone has no choice but to be part of the US debt ponzi. Most politicians should be in jail for how they have weakened this country.
 
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Seeing that bubble form and collapse coming was hardly astrology. And seeing our fools in DC think the collapse is the problem when in reality the bubble was the problem leads them to futile stupidity like further sinking our future into trying to refloat speculative bubbles.

I apologize for sounding pissed at you. I'm seathing mad at being forced to participate in the US debt ponzi against my will and forced to pay for other peoples losses (bailouts) when they weren't ever going to cut me in on their gains. I had free will to bypass the dotcom and real estate bubbles, but everyone has no choice but to be part of the US debt ponzi. Most politicians should be in jail for how they have weakened this country.

amen.
 
Peter Schiff is an articulate salesman. Financial salesmen make more money by selling their advice than by applying it.
He predicts hyper inflation, a rise in commodities prices, and the collapse in the dollar secondary to all the monetary stimulus. Maybe it will happen, maybe not. There is no reliable way to predict the future. There are just as many arguments for deflation and resulting collapse of commodities prices. Significant inflation is certainly not inevitable.

Consider:

-The spread between 10 year treasuries and 10 year TIPS is less than 2%.(this is the bond market's inflation expectation over the next decade)
-Japan has a MUCH higher ratio of debt to GDP (180%) and have experienced deflation for more than a decade ours is about 60%.
-Home equity is most people's major asset, It has been devastated with little signs of the real estate market reviving. Most "experts" are in fact predicting another leg down. Less wealth=less spending and less inflationary pressure.
-The stock market is well off its highs. Lower net worth=less spending=less inflationary pressure.
-Unemployment is 10%+ nationally. Higher in California, Nevada and the midwest. No job = No money to spend. No rise in prices.
-Downward pressure on almost all wages (except maybe CRNAs🙂) Less money to spend. No inflation.
-State and municipal budgets are balanced with smoke and mirrors this will result in massive layoffs of government jobs in the next couple of years. as the federal stimulus goes away.
-Underfunded corporate pension plans which will be defaulted on. Less money for consumers. Same theme.
-Baby boomers won't be able to retire, further depressing wages as more people compete for jobs.
-Taxes almost certainly going up for anybody with money. Less money in consumer's pockets. Same theme.
-Credit unobtainable for unworthy borrowers. Less spending, more saving, etc., etc.
-In the 70s Volcker tamed inflation by brutally raising rates. This strengthened the dollar and can happen again.

Schiff MAY be right. But everyone knows his arguments. They are built into the price of gold, commodities, the dollar, stock prices, etc. He is just the flavor of the month. BTW his father is a famous tax protestor serving a long prison sentence.

What would happen if the "Fed" came in and raised rates in an severe recession? So, it's very unlikely that that happens.

I'll agree, and Marc Faber has stated this all along, that we could have inflation in SOME asset markets (stock indices) and deflation in others (home prices) and they can occur concurrently.

I'll also agree that nobody can predict the future, but like my buddy Gerald Celente likes to say "current events form future trends". So, what's playing out now obviously will impact the future in some logical way, barring huge unpredictable events that change the game.

I'll agree with Narc that Japan's debt is owned mostly by the Japanese , and they have productive capacity to bring themselves out of their little mess. Remember, they too have an aging demographic similar to all of the West, which makes funding social programs through traditional sources (taxes), much more difficult.

Interesting times for sure. Information from a wide variety of sources will be key to any attempt at understanding world events. Interesting, devestating, yet kind of exciting as well.....

Regarding Schiff, he's credible for championing what AT THE TIME was for sure "unconventional" thinking with regards to economics. All the while, the major talking heads in the financial news media were spewing the same old rhetoric while most people were seeing their wealth destroyed.
 
What would happen if the "Fed" came in and raised rates in an severe recession? So, it's very unlikely that that happens.


Regarding Schiff, he's credible for championing what AT THE TIME was for sure "unconventional" thinking with regards to economics. All the while, the major talking heads in the financial news media were spewing the same old rhetoric while most people were seeing their wealth destroyed.


I remember the 70s. That is exactly what the Fed did. It was very painful. That is why they are quasi-independent.

Peter Schiff sketches broad themes that sound good. You hire him to make money. Despite his media celebrity he has failed to do that. He has made more money by selling his advice than by following it:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/116694-peter-schiff-s-euro-pacific-capital-down-40-70-in-2008
 
Peter Schiff sketches broad themes that sound good. You hire him to make money. Despite his media celebrity he has failed to do that. He has made more money by selling his advice than by following it:

I've read that before and am surprised he had such a bad 2008. But what Schiff says is sound and has proven the test of time over this decade. (to Schiff's defense, he did get out of the US market before the collapse, has done extremely well in gold, and lost his money in 2008 in other economies around the world, but has gained it back faster abroad than money invested here).

Understanding economic principles and knowing what sound policy should be doesn't mean you will be a good trader or broker. Timing is everything. Maybe you knew the Nasdaq dotcom bubble was a joke and you were right. But you went short around 3500. On its irrational way to 5000 you lost every penny you ever had including your home. Your economic thinking was 100% correct and the Nasdaq 10 years later is still far below 3500 proving you right. But your timing and not understanding that markets can act highly irrational left you broke.

I could care less whether if Schiff is a good technician and trader or not, but I know he needs to be followed in economic policy. As for the 3 bumbling Stooges, Obama, Geithner, and Bernanke all helped create this bubble (with the help of many others including Bush, Greenspan and a whole host of clowns), had not the faintest idea it was a house of cards heading down the toilet, and now people actually believe these 3 idiot crooks have the slightest clue what to do next?
 
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I remember the 70s. That is exactly what the Fed did. It was very painful. That is why they are quasi-independent.

Peter Schiff sketches broad themes that sound good. You hire him to make money. Despite his media celebrity he has failed to do that. He has made more money by selling his advice than by following it:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/116694-peter-schiff-s-euro-pacific-capital-down-40-70-in-2008

I read the linked article. Decent points, but isn't that a relatively short-term horizon? Sure, at the time, Schiff may have been wrong on certain key "micro-issues", but generally the "contrarians" are EARLY rather than late. I'd like to see where his clients stand today, or where they'll be in a few years.

A perfect example is David Tice's (formerly of the Prudent Bear Fund) predictions of 40-50% market corrections. The problem with most of these guys is that they're usually a bit TOO early. But, better early than late, if one's goal is capital preservation.

Regarding the FOMC, the arguement against the "Fed" is not really one (those of us that are serious about it, anyway) of disagreeing with a non-politically dependent entity that sets monetary policy. Much more important to the anti-Fed arguement is that the Fed consists of some non-transparent amalgamation of private banking interests.

The U.S. Congress could just as easily cut out this very expensive middle-man by legislating for a Congressionally overseen entity with independent, perhaps long term appointments similar to the head of the GAO (a 15 year appointment). This way, monetary decision making would not be subject to political pressures (which would make Volker's move impossible today), yet simply getting rid of this scam we call the "Fed".

Can anyone even tell me what exactly the Fed is?? Even for people whom are intersted in finding out, it's really difficult. Who are it's member banks? What kind of collusion exists between it and other central banks of the world? Why all the secrecy? Why all the resistance to greater transparency?

And, isn't it just a LITTLE suspect that we seem to have the major conflict of interest with the almost literal revolving door between the Fed, Treasury, Goldman Sachs (and other large IB's)? Come on.
 
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I've read that before and am surprised he had such a bad 2008. His economic thinking is not much different than my own, and I thought 2008 was like stealing candy from a baby. But what Schiff says is sound and has proven the test of time over this decade. (to Schiff's defense, he did get out of the US market before the collapse, has done extremely well in gold, and lost his money in 2008 in other economies around the world, but has gained it back faster abroad than money invested here).

Understanding economic principles and knowing what sound policy should be doesn't mean you will be a good trader or broker. Timing is everything. Maybe you knew the Nasdaq dotcom bubble was a joke and you were right. But you went short around 3500. On its irrational way to 5000 you lost every penny you ever had including your home. Your economic thinking was 100% correct and the Nasdaq 10 years later is still far below 3500 proving you right. But your timing and not understanding that markets can act highly irrational left you broke.

I could care less whether if Schiff is a good technician and trader or not, but I know he needs to be followed in economic policy. As for the 3 bumbling Stooges, Obama, Geithner, and Bernanke all helped create this bubble (with the help of many others including Bush, Greenspan and a whole host of clowns), had not the faintest idea it was a house of cards heading down the toilet, and now people actually believe these 3 idiot crooks have the slightest clue what to do next?

I agree on all points.
 
Some of you will get a kick out of this. I've been following Gerald Celente for over a year now. He tells it like it is.

http://www.youtube.com/user/PeterSchiffChannel

Celente himself had some valid points, if only I could get the overfed clown on the left- napolitano or whatever his name is- to shut his trap and stop his man-cackling (if only there were split volume controls), he was interrupting the flow of actual ideas.
 
Celente himself had some valid points, if only I could get the overfed clown on the left- napolitano or whatever his name is- to shut his trap and stop his man-cackling (if only there were split volume controls), he was interrupting the flow of actual ideas.

Judge Napolitano is a good man. We can agree to disagree.
 
O.k. It's silly to gauge economic trends on a daily basis, but let's see what happens NEAR TERM in terms of dollar valuation. Marc Faber called for a short term rebound that could last for a while, but not so much long term (he's extremely pessimistic).

Let's see if Faber nails this one like many of his other predictions.

That being said, I would NOT worry about gold prices long term, and any further dips would be a very solid buying opportunity IMHO.
 
Very similar to Clubber Lang's prediction: Painnnn..........

A debt death spiral in which we can no longer service the debt without high taxes, high interest rates, and money printing leading to a currency devaluation, hyperinflation, and an economic collapse. Widespread rioting will occur when Entitled America has their freebees cut off. In addition there will be massive food and energy shortages leading to crime waves and anarchy. Every household will look like an armed fort. Those smart enough to stockpile food or have farms will face constant armed attack. You will eventually lose almost all of your material wealth as it becomes worthless, stolen, or abandoned. Through it all some politician will say, "America's best days are ahead of us."

Well we sure did take another trillion dollar step forward today to my Obamageddon Dooms Day scenario.
 
How's your gun collection going? 🙂 Ever get around to upgrading that lonely 357?

lol. No I haven't, but I've met a detective at the hospital I work at that has given me some good advice on guns and where to go for a concealed weapons permit. It's on the to-do list, probably get it done within a few months. I don't expect Greek-like civil unrest until we can't service the debt and then are forced to cut back the "Entitled." Our irresponsible leaders won't do that until they absolutely have no choice, so I'm relatively comfortable for now with the 357 under my mattress at night. 🙂

I like the Glock 28 he showed me and will get one. Nice combination of weight, size, performance, and rounds. What do you think?
 
I like the Glock 28 he showed me and will get one. Nice combination of weight, size, performance, and rounds. What do you think?

2 would be ideal. Throw on a leather coat and hold them sideways like Detective Alonzo Harris.

600px-Vlcsnap-320929.jpg



tn2_training_day_1.jpg
 
I don't expect Greek-like civil unrest until we can't service the debt and then are forced to cut back the "Entitled." Our irresponsible leaders won't do that until they absolutely have no choice, so I'm relatively comfortable for now with the 357 under my mattress at night. 🙂

🙂 I agree we've got some time before we go all Greece- or Argentina-like.

I like the Glock 28 he showed me and will get one. Nice combination of weight, size, performance, and rounds. What do you think?

Glocks are nice, though I give my Glock-totin' friends crap about their plastic hand grenades. 🙂 And they mock my non-German-manufactured Sigs. The only downside to the 28, once you get past the usual tired old stopping power caliber arguments, is that .380acp ammo has been very hard to find over the last year. My brother hardly fired his .380 carry gun at all in 2009, which isn't so great. That situation's improving but it's still nowhere near as ubiquitous as 9 or 40 or 45.
 
Glocks are nice, though I give my Glock-totin' friends crap about their plastic hand grenades. 🙂 And they mock my non-German-manufactured Sigs. The only downside to the 28, once you get past the usual tired old stopping power caliber arguments, is that .380acp ammo has been very hard to find over the last year. My brother hardly fired his .380 carry gun at all in 2009, which isn't so great. That situation's improving but it's still nowhere near as ubiquitous as 9 or 40 or 45.

Hey, thanks for the info. I'll definitely ask about that stuff before I purchase. I'll be sure to have more firepower before we become Greece.


greece-greek-athens-protest-flag-burn.jpg
 
What I find most telling about these and other discussions with educated people doing just fine (by comparison) in the world, is how "fed up" many of us are becoming.

This is reactionary to what many of us consider a government that isn't truly representitive of their interests. Just an observation, but this forum is NOT an exception.

Just read the comments sections of various financial news columns. People that frequent those sites are generally more well off and educated than the norm. So, when you hear a plethora of comments on such sites as "banksters" and "we're heading for hell in a handbasket with all this debt" etc., I think this speaks volumes of the potential power of grassroots change. We'll see.

cf
 
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