Programs at risk for the SOAP

[sirrileydog]

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The SOAP might have some surprises this year. Each IM applicant is sending off more applications (42 on average!) and interviewing more places (some on this forum are interviewing at 12-20 programs). This puts PDs in a bind--do programs with 50 residents/year now have to open 600 interview spots (50 * 12 = 600) to fill?

If a program misjudges itself (ie lower tier aspiring to be middle tier, or middle tier aspiring to be top tier) and miscalculates their yield, they could be in trouble. Remember Duke.

What factors might unexpectedly send a university program into the SOAP? Leadership issues at the top (ie unfilled PD or chair of medicine positions)? Increased cost of living in the area? Change in benefits? Even a poorly organized interview day? Any programs in particular at risk (besides the ones that didn't interview me but should have?)

 

[the argus]

This post is based on the (hysterical) analysis that there is some major shift going on, which is just blatantly not true. There is a very minor gradual increase, nothing extreme enough to cause major "surprises this year."

http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Main-Match-Results-and-Data-2015_final.pdf
pg 45, Average Number of Ranked Applicants Needed to Fill Each Position by Specialty, 2011 - 2015
http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/resultsanddata2010.pdf
pg 33, Average Number of Ranked Applicants Needed to Fill Each Position by Specialty, 2006 - 2010
http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/resultsanddata2008.pdf
pg 33, Average Number of Ranked Applicants Needed to Fill Each Position by Specialty, 2004 - 2008

Internal medicine (categorical)
2004 - 5.9
2005 - 6.0
2006 - 5.5
2007 - 5.5
2008 - 5.6
2009 - 5.6
2010 - 5.7
2011 - 5.9
2012 - 6.4
2013 - 5.7
2014 - 6.5
2015 - 6.5

As you can see, this number has not changed significantly over the past 12 years.

While in any year there might be a specific program that for whatever reason doesn't fill their class and needs to SOAP, there is no major shift going on. It will take ~6 applicants per position for programs to fill their classes, just like the past decade.