There have been a few threads about this lately, especially in pre-allo where it's jalby vs premeds.
You can't read a match list as a premed. I'm not comfortable reading them as a resident, even in my own field. There are too many variables.
No one can give you a formula. There's no secret agreement between schools to exchange graduates. However, people at well regarded schools definitely have an advantage in the residency application process. Some programs are much harder to interview at even if you're a superstar coming from an average school, especially in the smaller fields. They have numbers on their side. Region is very important. If you look at the em application thread, you'll see people with 210s getting interviews at west coast programs that people with 250s from the east coast get snubbed from and the other way around.
Another thing is that residency directors are biased towards places they know. They favor the places that have given them good graduates in the past and will avoid superstars from places that have burned them. Some places are very incestuous and mostly take their own grads while others try to avoid taking their own.
No school can make you a superstar. Every school has amazing people as well as duds although the percentage varies. It's really dependent on your own abilities and effort.
Tldr; there's nothing you can do to predict success. Ignore match lists.
