Projected lack of residencies for all MD and DO students

[stmclovin]

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Seems like Pre-osteo forum is kind of boring. lets talk about something new (hopefully):

There are about 17,000 MD and about 15,500 DO entering students in 2007. Which totals to 32,500 graduating medical students in 4 years. There are only 22,000 MD residencies + 3000 DO residencies (correct me if I am wrong) = 25,000 residency spots. That's leaves us with about AT LEAST 7,500 MD and DO students not being able to match every year.

There was some discussion to cut down the number of MD residency spots by couple thousand. I am assuming the number of medical school graduates will continue to rise. You also have to add about 3,000 incoming FMGs that match into MD residencies which can increase the number as high as 10,000 of US graduates not being able to match every year.

What do you guys think? Or is my math completely off?

Correction: That's about 16k total enrollment, not entering class. Entering class is about 4400. So 17,000 from MD schools + 4,400 from DO FMG = 21,400 + 3000GMS = 24,400 people for 22K + 3K residency spots. I guess those 600 spots will go unfulfilled.

http://www.aacom.org/about/fastfacts/Documents/FF-Enrollment-NationCOMs.pdf

 

[DocInProgress]

You also have to account the fact that some medical students will have their private practice, might change careers post degree (ie: MBA degree), or even go outside the country to practice medicine. Also, you can't forget the fact that new hospitals are being built for the increasing population. But I do feel that obtaining residencies will become more and more competitive in the near future.

 

[prionsRbad]

Where did you get those stats?

 

[jzeidenb]

15500 entering DO students? really?

 

[Lshapley]

That seems just plain incorrect to me. Maybe you are looking at the stats showing residencies by current US MD and DO graduates? This does not seem to be taking into account the large number of FMG currently in US residencies. The FMG will likely be the first to lose out on the MD residencies, followed by DO graduates. But it doesn't seem like that day is coming anytime soon.

 

[Lshapley]

15500 entering DO students? really?

20 DO schools with a say an average enrollment of 200 would only give you 4000 students.

 

[tkim]

Seems like Pre-osteo forum is kind of boring. lets talk about something new (hopefully):

There are about 17,000 MD and about 15,500 DO entering students in 2007. [...] Or is my math completely off?

You math is off. For the number of graduating DO's being close to the number of graduating MD's, we'd have to have the nearly the same number of schools and seats. We don't. I think at the most we graduate about 2000/yr.

 

[spazzz]

20 DO schools with a say an average enrollment of 200 would only give you 4000 students.

it's closer to 30 schools now

 

[stmclovin]

I made a factual error. With all the MDs, DO, and FMGs, there will be about 600 residency spots left which is kind of a close call.

 

[JaggerPlate]

First off ... this topic is soooo far from new. In fact, one of the reasons why so many people are upset with the AOA right now is because they are opening a ton of new schools without making new residencies. However ...

- Your stats have to be wrong because a ton of spots go unfilled each year
- I don't think anything is taken into account for people who are doing a transition year.
-Also, you don't account for people practicing abroad, dropping out, changing careers, etc etc

Enrollment numbers are up, but I don't think we will ever reach a point where when every residency spot is filled ... 3000 people will just not be able to practice medicine?? That doesn't make any sense.

 

[tkim]

I made a factual error. With all the MDs, DO, and FMGs, there will be about 600 residency spots left which is kind of a close call.

Not necessarily. Those 600 spots are in specialties/locations/programs that people do not want to match in. It's not as if anyone will take just any position simply because it's open.

I looked it up:

http://www.nrmp.org/data/resultsanddata2007.pdf

- The total number of positions offered in the 2007 Match was 24,685

- the total number of active applicants grew by 1,229 to 26,715.

"Although the number of positions offered increased by 600, the total number of active applicants grew by 1,229 to 26,715. Of this total, 20,514 were matched to PGY-1 residency positions, 312 more than last year but a smaller proportion when compared to the increase in applicants. Therefore, the match rate for all applicants continued to decline in 2007, from 78.0 percent in 2005 to 75.1 percent in 2006 and 73.4 percent in 2007. The continued growth in both USIMGs and IMGs suggests that, from an applicant's point-of-view, the residency selection process will continue to be competitive."

 

[stmclovin]

well, guys, I just got a call from Western... And yeah, I will be a doctor (hopefully).

 

[307Doc]

What about internship year. There are some people that do an internship in some random area of medicine before the start their residency. Would that have any outcome in the number of residency spots?????