Put your statistics to work

[DrThom]

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If the average med student applys to 15 medical schools with each school accepting 5% of its total applicants, what is the probability that the applying student will receive an acceptance. This is based on random probability. Lets say that each school receives 6,000 applications. First one with a correct answers gets a cookie.

 

[Odaroloc]

if each school recieves 6000 apps. and each student applies to approx. 15 schools, this means there are approx only 400 applicants and 5% acceptance rate of 6000 apps is 360 acceptances...therefore the probability of acceptance is 9 out of 10.

 

[Ghost]

if each school recieves 6000 apps. and each student applies to approx. 15 schools, this means there are approx only 400 applicants and 5% acceptance rate of 6000 apps is 360 acceptances...therefore the probability of acceptance is 9 out of 10.

lol, if there are only 400 applicants, why are the schools getting 6000 applications each?

 

[Odaroloc]

bc they each are apparently applying to 15 schools

 

[Ghost]

no, both the op's and your post state that each school gets 6000 apps........

 

[TripleDegree]

bc they each are apparently applying to 15 schools

might wanna polish up those math skills, bud

 

[Odaroloc]

oops...note to self, don't do math after 11pm and drinks at dinner

 

[Bad Mojo]

http://www.aamc.org/data/facts/archive/famgloisa.htm

It seems it would be better to use total applicants v. total spots. It eliminates the whole multiple acceptance problem. For 2002: 17,592 total accepted applicants, 33,625 total applicants -- 52%.

 

[DrThom]

http://www.aamc.org/data/facts/archive/famgloisa.htm

It seems it would be better to use total applicants v. total spots. It eliminates the whole multiple acceptance problem. For 2002: 17,592 total accepted applicants, 33,625 total applicants -- 52%.

You are trying to take the easy way out! The problem is asking on chance alone what is the possibility of receiving ONE acceptance out of the entire application process.

 

[mikeyboy]

1-0.95^15...

I don't see why knowing how many applicants each school gets is relevant.

What kind of cookie?

 

[Ghost]

3/4.........gimmie a damn cookie

 

[mikeyboy]

Well if it's just ONE acceptance...and not two...

15*0.05*(0.95^14)

I have no idea what that is though.

And BTW this is probability, not statistics...man I'm bored.

 

[DrThom]

Well if it's just ONE acceptance...and not two...

15*0.05*(0.95^14)

I have no idea what that is though.

And BTW this is probability, not statistics...man I'm bored.

You're right, it is probability, not statistics. I am just in a cracked out mood from trying to revise by PS.

BTW, hell if I know the answer, so COOKIES FOR EVERYBODY.

]

 

[RaiderHeisman]

If the average med student applys to 15 medical schools with each school accepting 5% of its total applicants, what is the probability that the applying student will receive an acceptance. This is based on random probability. Lets say that each school receives 6,000 applications. First one with a correct answers gets a cookie.

The dilemma is that there are too mahy unknown variables and corresponding posterior probability distributions that you have to account for. Consider these unknowns:

- The probability distribution of ED applicants, vs. reg. admission applicants.

- Since admissions is a rolling process, you now have to consider distributions for applications submitted in June vs. July vs. August vs. September vs. October vs. November

- What about the probability distribution of applicants applying with PhDs, vs applicants with Masters vs. applicants with just BS degrees...

- There's also in the in state vs. out of state factor. The probability distribution of getting accepted in CA is not even comparable to the probability distribution of getting accepted in NY.

Even if you were to somehow derive a PDF just from these 4 levels of uncertainty, you are already looking at a calculation involving a quadruple integral.

Good luck... 🙄