The match is funny.
I had looked this up before, and tried to figure it out... but couldnt.
Most... about 90% (off the top of my head) match in their top 4 (or so). So its almost as if you match into your top4, or not at all. I can't figure out why that is.
One explanation is the interview, where it serves to "un-rank" the applicant (happens about 10% of the time). Maybe the applicants who interview badly, do so everywhere.
So, either you'll get where you want, or the programs dont want you.
So, theoretically the OPs approach might work. But I wouldnt take that chance.