My university's summer program in Mexico has been canceled due to the swine flu.
Hope it turns out all right.
Hope it turns out all right.
This sure would be a convenient way to stir up the masses into consenting to some type of radical health care reform that wouldn't have any hope in hell of passing without "imminent danger".
Let's see if this makes sense... Avg flu deaths annually ~36,000 in the United States. Morbidity rate of the swine flu... ~160 all of which are assumed to have not sought treatment and 0 of which are in the United States.
http://www.cdc.gov/od/oc/media/pressrel/r030107.htm
Sounds a little like someone in charge is drumming up the population and getting us ripe for some new political change. My prediction is that within the next 2 months we're going to hear about some radical proposition by the new Obama administration and assuming the "Swine Flu" has the desired affect on causing hysteria and pandemonium, it will most likely pass.
Really? The card you're going to play here is that Obama is using swine flu as a cover for passing massive health care reform? What does swine flu have to do with insurance coverage/rising cost of healthcare (which is what the whole medicare/medicaid thing is about)? What's Obama going to say? "My fellow Americans, if we pass my health care plan, no one will ever be sick again, and disease will disappear from the face of the earth."? Get real.
Fundamentally, it's a public health issue, not really a question of medical care. You can treat as many sick people as you like, but if you don't stop the pandemic the bodies will start to pile up and your hospitals will get overcrowded. As is stands, we are confronted with an unknown, novel strain of the flu (subtype H1N1). It has the potential to be very bad indeed (total deaths from Hong Kong flu, which was the same subtype and had a similar presentation, were 700,000 back in 1968, and predicted deaths for swine flu assuming worst case scenario reach 7 million.) Also, of 26 confirmed cases in Mexico, 7 have died, giving you a mortality rate close to 25% (btw, mortality rate=people who die from a given disease per 1000 population or people dead/people infected, morbidity rate=people infected with a given disease per 1,000 population. Correct terminology goes a long way). That's huge. Obviously more figures are needed, and while I highly doubt that the final mortality rate will be anywhere close to that (I would think that between 0.1% and 1.0% would be more realistic if it does reach pandemic levels), it makes sense to shut down schools and public spaces as a precautionary measure.
To answer your first point, the current flu strains kill 36,000 per year, but mostly the very young, very old, and the immunocompromised, whereas swine flu has killed young, healthy people (biphasic mortality curve, same as 1918 pandemic), indicating that the H and N antigens are indeed novel. Again, worst case scenario, we will have a lot more than 36,000 deaths from the flu this year. Your argument boils down to "Currently the flu is a big problem, so why should we care if it turns into a bigger problem?"
Panic is certainly not the solution, but this is certainly a case where an ounce of prevention can go a long way - if we get a pandemic (and the WHO just kicked it up to a Level 4 pandemic threat, btw) then public health measures and playing the situation conservatively could help a lot. If they (CDC and WHO) are wrong, it's SARS all over again (but SARS was never as contagious anyway, so horrible analogy) and no-one dies. If they're right, less people die. If they don't do anything, lots of people could die. Seems like the first two options end up better than the third.
As for my opinion, I think that it won't be as severe as predicted (certainly not another 1918), but that it will be fairly major (certainly not another SARS). Right now there's really just not enough data to say anything meaningful, but jumping to the conclusion that Obama will use this to revamp the American health care system is just paranoid.
A better government system?? lol. I just got back from a 2 month trip over there.. it has historically been one of the most corrupt governments in the world. They are currently under partial military martial law with a tactical force called the RAB that can do anything they want when they want to. They are fighting crime and corruiption for now, but there is nothing governing their actions at all. Yes they have kept out terrorists and reduced drug trafficking etc.., but at the expense of a rediculously fluid and immature government that really has no centralized leadership. They have the 7th largest population in the world (1/2 the US pop), and if you have seen the size of Bangladesh on a map lately you will realize how unbelievably cramped that is. Poorest place I have ever seen. Hands down. Mexico looks like the Ritz Carlton compared to Bangladesh. Take a look at the GDP's. They don't even compare.
My friend is from Bangladesh, he is also gay, he's afraid to go back because they stone gays. Sounds pretty awful if you ask me.
ummmm... who r u to judge their culture...? thats how the country has functioned in the last 5 decades or so..
look at what has happened after the "gay" revolution in the last 3 decades... due to the "first- world countries"
more and more people are coming out to be gay or bisexual..
but it may also be a good thing... cuz if gays don't have kids and adopt children - one less suffering child imo... also, that keeps the pop. growth in check..
I read that as they don't have children, but they do adopt and therefore there is one less suffering child in foster care. Maybe I'm wrong though.
Holy hell, you're a monstrous bigot, unless I'm reading your post wrong. Are you saying it's good that homosexuals can't adopt or have children?
Just curious, do you keep wet wipes with you at all times in case someone gets "the gay" on you?
ummmm... who r u to judge their culture...? thats how the country has functioned in the last 5 decades or so..
look at what has happened after the "gay" revolution in the last 3 decades... due to the "first- world countries"
more and more people are coming out to be gay or bisexual..
but it may also be a good thing... cuz if gays don't have kids and adopt children - one less suffering child imo... also, that keeps the pop. growth in check..
Fundamentally, it's a public health issue, not really a question of medical care. You can treat as many sick people as you like, but if you don't stop the pandemic the bodies will start to pile up and your hospitals will get overcrowded. As is stands, we are confronted with an unknown, novel strain of the flu (subtype H1N1). It has the potential to be very bad indeed (total deaths from Hong Kong flu, which was the same subtype and had a similar presentation, were 700,000 back in 1968, and predicted deaths for swine flu assuming worst case scenario reach 7 million.) Also, of 26 confirmed cases in Mexico, 7 have died, giving you a mortality rate close to 25% (btw, mortality rate=people who die from a given disease per 1000 population or people dead/people infected, morbidity rate=people infected with a given disease per 1,000 population. Correct terminology goes a long way). That's huge. Obviously more figures are needed, and while I highly doubt that the final mortality rate will be anywhere close to that (I would think that between 0.1% and 1.0% would be more realistic if it does reach pandemic levels), it makes sense to shut down schools and public spaces as a precautionary measure.
I don't disagree with a lot of what you're saying. My point is simply that the swine flu is not warranting the concern, in my eyes, that it is getting. I am aware of the infection rates, the typical individuals of infection and mortality of the flu. I am simply trying to elucidate that even though the swine flu has infected 20 healthy young adults in the US it has not killed any of them. To even compare the swine flu with the 1918 flu is asinine. Those 20 individuals would most likely be dead by now if this swine flu were anywhere near as virulent as the 1918 flu pandemic.
As far as your illustration of my point, "why should we care?" that was not my point. Feel free to reread my post if you would like, but I was simply making a statement that government tends to use fear states to help propagate it's agenda. Whether you like it or not, this occurs. If you have some interest in reading about it you can get some great info by looking up terror management theory and related social psych theories dealing with government policies and the effects of the masses recently made aware of their own mortality.
I'm not saying the government is going to pimp one policy over the other, I'm simply saying that it seems a lot like propaganda to push something, whatever that may be.
But as you have stated, we'll know sooner rather than later.
I think the latest figures from mexico show a 7% mortality of infections that are recognized in the hospital. It's certainly lower than that because does not include ppl who have flu-like symptoms and don't get the disease. But I still think it'll be greater than 1% mortality for hospital patients because of the mechanism. It's the body's response that seems to be responsible for the deaths and not the infection itself. Makes treating it a bit trickier than just supportive measures. Though it's still not clear why we're not seeing ARDS here like they are in Mexico
My friend is from Bangladesh, he is also gay, he's afraid to go back because they stone gays. Sounds pretty awful if you ask me.
Last check no American deaths, look like the freedom does cure/prevent the swine flu.
Holy hell, you're a monstrous bigot, unless I'm reading your post wrong. Are you saying it's good that homosexuals can't adopt or have children?
Just curious, do you keep wet wipes with you at all times in case someone gets "the gay" on you?
Yeah, I read it both ways...it's sort of hard to decipher without punctuation, sentences, or whole words...
So many things wrong with this post. 1. You're saying it's ok to stone gays as long as it has been happening for a really long time? 2. What does the part in bold even mean? 3. The last part is also just silly. 4. If calling Mexico a ****hole gets a warning than this post needs to be a perma ban with no questions asked.
According to AP:
"A 23-month-old toddler in Texas became the first confirmed swine flu death outside of Mexico as authorities around the world struggled to contain a growing global health menace that has also swept Germany onto the roster of afflicted nations. Officials say the death was in Houston.
Kathy Barton, a spokeswoman for the Houston Health and Human Services Department, said Wednesday that the child had traveled with family from Mexico to Brownsville in South Texas. The child became ill in Brownsville and was taken to a Houston hospital and died Monday night, she said."
So was the child from Mexico who became ill and died in Texas or was he/she from Texas who took a trip to Mexico and later died in Texas? A death in the US is certainly reason for concern, however the USA is still 66 for 67.
According to AP:
"A 23-month-old toddler in Texas became the first confirmed swine flu death outside of Mexico as authorities around the world struggled to contain a growing global health menace that has also swept Germany onto the roster of afflicted nations. Officials say the death was in Houston.
Kathy Barton, a spokeswoman for the Houston Health and Human Services Department, said Wednesday that the child had traveled with family from Mexico to Brownsville in South Texas. The child became ill in Brownsville and was taken to a Houston hospital and died Monday night, she said."
vickpick: i didn't say its okay to stone gays. I was just respecting their culture.
@ everybody: Sorry I know this is waaay of topic.
Ahh the Bangla/Bangladeshi culture:
Which gave birth to such wonderful things as-
The Rabindrasangeet
Delicious fish curries
The Bengal Renaissance
And of course, stoning gays to death (because of course this is an unquestionable part of THE monolithic bangla culture)
all equal and valid
i was saying its a good thing they can adopt a child
again, its how their culture works... no one says that the Pope should be banned because he promotes unprotected sex in catholic countries to give birth to more catholics - thus spreading more STD's,
then y should the bangla's practice of stoning gays shunned by us- the others?
Ah, very sorry to have jumped down your throat then - it seems that I read too far into your post and thought that you were trying to stir up panic about an unrelated topic (it was fairly late when I wrote that and I wasn't in the greatest mood). Governments do use panic to push their agenda - but in this case I don't see how swine flu could lead to a push for health care reform (I may of course be overestimating the average intelligence of voters, but I like to think that deep down we're all at least semi-rational). I'll also admit to misreading your statement which I interpreted as "Why should we care?"
I would disagree that all of the attention that swine flu is getting is propaganda, in that this information might help to save lives, i.e., the government is propagating the information to protect the populace, not to position themselves as a savior. I'd be interested for any reading you can recommend on the topic - my library is not so big on that subject.
Let me reiterate that I do not think that this pandemic will be anywhere near as bad as 1918 - I just brought that up for historical example, esp. in terms of the biphasic death curve (I had also wanted to mention cytokine storm response but for some reason I left that out). However, if this outbreak were as bad as 1918, then only about 5 people of the 20 you mentioned (total number of American cases is now at 64) would be dead (2.5-5.0% mortality rate for 1918 strain). Again, 1918 is not a real possibility, but 1968 is.
Because stoning ANYONE is wrong. I'm not saying we should invade Bengal and make them stop, but we should certainly not include them in the world theater. If they want to continue stoning homosexuals they should understand that this means we will not trade with them, our allies will not trade with them, and we will certainly not help should Pakistan or India decide they want more land. *shrug* It's their choice.
We are now at level 5...I am assuming that the WHO is doing this to equate the situation with the end of days....personally, I will be signing off from SDN now and retreat to my bunker, stocked with supplies for the next 6 months.
Good Night and Good Luck
What, that doesn't work?Just remember: the swine flu, like a nuclear bomb, can be protected against by ducking under a small, wooden/metal school desk. It always seemed to work in the PSAs, at least.
What, that doesn't work?
I hope so, otherwise, how wil lwe defend ourselves against air raids, tornadoes, earthquakes, or atomic bombs.
As a sidenote, how weird is it that they always taught us to do the same duck and cover for all these things? I mean, really? You think my desk is going to hold up to any sort of bomb? And that's assuming the entire 50-year old school building doesn't collapse in on us...nice.
I think the idea behind duck and cover is to protect yourself from broken glass more than crumbling bombed buildings...I hope so, otherwise, how wil lwe defend ourselves against air raids, tornadoes, earthquakes, or atomic bombs.
As a sidenote, how weird is it that they always taught us to do the same duck and cover for all these things? I mean, really? You think my desk is going to hold up to any sort of bomb? And that's assuming the entire 50-year old school building doesn't collapse in on us...nice.
I think the idea behind duck and cover is to protect yourself from broken glass more than crumbling bombed buildings...
I think the idea behind duck and cover is to protect yourself from broken glass more than crumbling bombed buildings...
[youtube]C0K_LZDXp0I[/youtube]
I think the idea behind duck and cover is to protect yourself from broken glass more than crumbling bombed buildings...
It's why they have seatbelts in cars and oxygen masks on planes😱I'm just going to throw this out there...if there is a freaking air raid or ATOMIC BOMB going off in your general vicinity, you would love for your only problem to be broken glass in your face, haha.
I'm going to go with the previous poster and say it's a mental trick to make you feel as if you have some sort of control. A sense of loss of control can induce panic in crowds, which is never a good thing in an emergency.
It's why they have seatbelts in cars and oxygen masks on planes😱
It's why they have seatbelts in cars and oxygen masks on planes😱