You're right the numbers are right there, below from the charts as a picture will speak a thousand words. From 2005-2006 to 2014-2015, the total number of pipeline residency slots went from 24,368 to 27,534 for an increase of 13%. During the same period the number of US MD/DO filling those slots went 17,447 to 20,705 for an increase of 18.5%. The total number of IMGs filling those slots during the same time frame went from 6,773 to 6,837 for an increase of under 1%. The increase in the number of US MD/DO filling pipeline slots at 18.5% has outpaced the increase in the number of the pipeline slots at 13%, while the number of IMG filling those slots has remained almost completely flat. Indeed, the rate of the increase has US MD/DO is 40% faster than the rate of increase for residency slots. With 18.5% number of US MD/DO pipeline residents and only 13% increase in residency slots, I stand by my statement in its entirety. And I mean in its entirety if you had read carefully. Do you see me saying never attending off shore schools? No, I say explore all other pathways first.
The only presumption here is your assuming conclusions beyond the scope of what I clearly stated I was comparing, namely US MD Seniors to any US-IMG grads in the match. It states that question clearly and refers solely to the match and uses the data for that purpose. Comparison of any defined group in the match to another is not only statistically acceptable under the scope of the model, it reflects the social reality that applicants should consider: what are my chances in any particular match cycle within my particular status. With US Seniors as the "standard" for comparison to all others, regardless how long it either took them to complete a degree or how long since they earned the degree, is fair. But since you are crying about it, taking all US allopathic graduates, whether senior or beyond, from NMRP in 2016, who did not match, did not rank, or withdrew from the match was 2,728 out of a total of 20,407 or 13.4% of total who originally put in an application to the match. Compare that to 61.5% of US IMGs . Or to flip that, if you are a senior or graduate of a US MD school, So you have an 86.6% of matching, compared to a 38.5% chance for an US IMG. Thank you for helping me make the over 2 to 1 ratio clear to all
So now lets examine further down the food chain of residency slots. In 2016, there were 3914 eligible US MD Senior/Graduates for SOAP with 717 accepting positions or about 22%. For all US IMG, there were 4,090 eligible for SOAP and 92 who got positions or about 2%. So how and where did these approximately 400 others you site get positions? They got what was left over. They likely didnt get the program they wanted or the city they wanted or even specialty they wanted. They spent 4 years in an off shore school, now to be in medicine at the bottom of the practicing physician barrel. Then of course there is below the barrel, those who never get any slot of any kind and cant practice medicine at all. An MD degree and far too much debt. We can get a rough estimate of how many. If there were 4,090 eligible for SOAP and 482 got slots outside of the match (SOAP, off-cycle, independent contracts, etc), then roughly 3500 didnt get any slot. Since the year to year US-IMG cohort remains about the same and the match rate and numbers remain the same, about 3500 drop out each year. Where do they go? I only can give one example, All the anatomy lab instructors at one Ivy I have worked with are all off-shore grads. Well, its medicine I suppose but probably not what they wanted to do when they thought about becoming a doctor
For those who do want to find out who I am, what my experience is, etc, they can see my affiliation on my avatar. If they were to goggle my screen name along my affiliation, they would see all that I have done in this area for the past 15 years and likely get my home phone number as well.
My point to all this is as now primarily an advisor, I need to make recommendations to those considering off shore schools. So I repeat: with the growth of US based graduates in both MD and DO, and the lack of growth in residency slots, the opportunities are shrinking has for getting any slot at all for off-shore graduates. Thus I can no longer recommend them at all until an applicant looked at all other pathways.