Saturation of anesthesiologists?

[anbuitachi]

Does anyone have any data that may predict when anesthesiologists may saturate job markets? Anesthesiology has one of the largest increases in matches among all specialties and we all know how that can affect future job markets. From 2008-2012, anesthesiology has seen a ~10% increase (~110) in matches. That's a pretty big increase in such a short time in my opinion. The school that I attend had 23 students match into anesthesiology this year, which is right behind IM. So I'm wondering if anesthesiology is anywhere close to being saturated with the rate of matching this high, and probably only going to increase in the next several years?

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[Medstudentquest]

Does anyone have any data that may predict when anesthesiologists may saturate job markets? Anesthesiology has one of the largest increases in matches among all specialties and we all know how that can affect future job markets. From 2008-2012, anesthesiology has seen a ~10% increase (~110) in matches. That's a pretty big increase in such a short time in my opinion. The school that I attend had 23 students match into anesthesiology this year, which is right behind IM. So I'm wondering if anesthesiology is anywhere close to being saturated with the rate of matching this high, and probably only going to increase in the next several years?

As someone who once considered anesthesia, I have wondered the same thing. Respectfully, I also don't quite understand why anesthesiologists are not fighting harder for their rights. I mean nurses are desperately trying to invade gas turf but very little is being done about it. In addition, it is important to consider that if the system is paying CRNA's 150k +, how does that really cut costs? I am not well versed entirely in the subject, but it seems to me that that should be a main point that anesthesiologists should be making. It's one thing if CRNA's/AA's are getting paid 80k, but at 150K, it really is not very cost effective.

Also why aren't attendings/PDs more up in arms about this and doing something to change it? Just curious really.

 

[Section31]

As someone who once considered anesthesia, I have wondered the same thing. Respectfully, I also don't quite understand why anesthesiologists are not fighting harder for their rights. I mean nurses are desperately trying to invade gas turf but very little is being done about it. In addition, it is important to consider that if the system is paying CRNA's 150k +, how does that really cut costs? I am not well versed entirely in the subject, but it seems to me that that should be a main point that anesthesiologists should be making. It's one thing if CRNA's/AA's are getting paid 80k, but at 150K, it really is not very cost effective.

Also why aren't attendings/PDs more up in arms about this and doing something to change it? Just curious really.

The increase in the number of anesthesiologists is not that large really. There will be a large doctor shortage in the future. Additionally, anesthesiologists are absolutely necessary for surgeons to exist, so there have to be enough of them.

Whether the market is over saturated or not, I couldn't tell you. 110 extra per year is really not much (one additional anesthesiologist per 3 million people). Some markets themselves are certainly saturated, but the good thing about anesthesiology is you can always move. That doesn't mean YOU have to move, it just means the market corrects itself faster for anesthesiology than for other specialties.

 

[Postictal Raiden]

Also, don't forget that a considerable portion of Anesthesiologists consists of baby bloomers who will be retiring within the next decade. Those need to be replaced.

 

[Consigliere]

As someone who has been in practice over 10 years, I'll tell you that the market is saturated RIGHT NOW. In 5-10 years we'll be lucky to get $200k per annum. Trust me.

 

[Socrates25]

Everybody always talks about the baby boomers, but thats short sighted. They'll be around for what, another 20 years and then what? Will residency training positions decrease again after the hump of the baby boomers are gone? I seriously doubt it.

 

[pgg]

Respectfully, I also don't quite understand why anesthesiologists are not fighting harder for their rights.

Many anesthesiologists are. The ASAPAC is the largest specialty political action committee in the US. State chapters are very active as well.

 

[Frank Rizzo]

As someone who once considered anesthesia, I have wondered the same thing. Respectfully, I also don't quite understand why anesthesiologists are not fighting harder for their rights. I mean nurses are desperately trying to invade gas turf but very little is being done about it. In addition, it is important to consider that if the system is paying CRNA's 150k +, how does that really cut costs? I am not well versed entirely in the subject, but it seems to me that that should be a main point that anesthesiologists should be making. It's one thing if CRNA's/AA's are getting paid 80k, but at 150K, it really is not very cost effective.

Also why aren't attendings/PDs more up in arms about this and doing something to change it? Just curious really.

If you don't think this battle is being fought, you are grossly mis/uninformed

 

[cincincyreds]

As someone who has been in practice over 10 years, I'll tell you that the market is saturated RIGHT NOW. In 5-10 years we'll be lucky to get $200k per annum. Trust me.

Just look at the gaswork jobs, or rather the lack of them. Someone I know who has practice for 15 years is looking for a job closer to their house and was offered 250k to start. I mean, it is 5x the national salary. But when you are used to 500k/year, that is tough.

 

[vector2]

Just look at the gaswork jobs, or rather the lack of them. Someone I know who has practice for 15 years is looking for a job closer to their house and was offered 250k to start. I mean, it is 5x the national salary. But when you are used to 500k/year, that is tough.

I was always under the impression you guys said that gaswork is unrepresentative of the graduate willing to put in the time to cold-call and fax some resumes broadly.

 

[Postictal Raiden]

Everybody always talks about the baby boomers, but thats short sighted. They'll be around for what, another 20 years and then what? Will residency training positions decrease again after the hump of the baby boomers are gone? I seriously doubt it.

By definition, baby boomers are those born between 1946 and 1964. If each lives on average till he/she is 79(average life span in the US, which is likely going to rise with the advancement of medical science), the oldest of them will die in 2025 while the youngest in 2043. That's 13-31 more years. By that time, you have already practiced long enough to pay off your loans, live a comfortable life and saved couple of millions for retirement. Do you really care what happens after that? I don't.

 

[BLADEMDA]

As someone who has been in practice over 10 years, I'll tell you that the market is saturated RIGHT NOW. In 5-10 years we'll be lucky to get $200k per annum. Trust me.

$250-$275 in 10 years. That's my educated guess. That's median income nationally.

So make hay while the sun shines and save some money. I wouldn't count on any debt forgiveness either.

 

[anbuitachi]

$250-$275 in 10 years. That's my educated guess.

Which will put it in the average category for salary for specialists? Seems to me the increase in anesthesiology is increasing rapidly because people are finding out that it has a high pay and a decent lifestyle. I guess that's going when they graduate.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Which will put it in the average category for salary for specialists? Seems to me the increase in anesthesiology is increasing rapidly because people are finding out that it has a high pay and a decent lifestyle. I guess that's going when they graduate.

1) Med Students go where the money is
2) The market is saturated right now but jobs are out there
3)CRNA pressure combined with Medicare cuts will hurt this field

Bottom line: $250-$275 in ten years. You can bank on it.

 

[Consigliere]

1) Med Students go where the money is
2) The market is saturated right now but jobs are out there
3)CRNA pressure combined with Medicare cuts will hurt this field

Bottom line: $250-$275 in ten years. You can bank on it.

Pretty optimistic.

 

[pgg]

Bottom line: $250-$275 in ten years. You can bank on it.

I personally think we'll lose more buying power to inflation than reimbursement cuts over the next 10 years.

5 or 6 % inflation means $250K in 2022 will buy $150K in 2012 stuff.

So make hay while the sun shines and save some money. I wouldn't count on any debt forgiveness either.

+1,000,000

 

[BLADEMDA]

I personally think we'll lose more buying power to inflation than reimbursement cuts over the next 10 years.

5 or 6 % inflation means $250K in 2022 will buy $150K in 2012 stuff.




+1,000,000

Yes. That's the real kick in the arse. Inflation. That $275 won't be in 2012 dollars.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Pretty optimistic.

+1 for me for being "optimistic"? It's nice to be called that for a change.

 

[BLADEMDA]

BTW, I think CRNA salaries will drop as well The Noctors might have to get by on $100K circa 2022.
That's a lot less than $100K in 2012 dollars.

 

[pgg]

BTW, I think CRNA salaries will drop as well The Noctors might have to get by on $100K circa 2022.
That's a lot less than $100K in 2012 dollars.

Meanwhile ... normal people working normal jobs will be spending their $50K like it's $30K.

 

[nimbus]

Necrobump but the dire predictions were very wrong. We’ll see what happens over the next five years.

 

[Section31]

Necrobump but the dire predictions were very wrong. We’ll see what happens over the next five years.

Very, very wrong. I’ve been looking to attract a new full time partner for a couple years, but it’s hard to find. I live in a good sized city on the coast. It’s a desirable location. Just not that many people.

 

[AdmiralChz]

All about volume. Know of any hospitals closing down or contracting operating room space? Nope, each one I’ve worked at since medical school has expanded since 2012. In our practice, 2 of our hospitals are up 30% in volume and 1 is up 50% in the past 5 years. Add to that a glut of retirements (people held off until their investments recovered) and we Need more people than ever.

 

[Southpaw]

Very, very wrong. I’ve been looking to attract a new full time partner for a couple years, but it’s hard to find. I live in a good sized city on the coast. It’s a desirable location. Just not that many people.

A couple years?? This isn't neurosurgery, urology or vascular surgery. You can't recruit an anesthesiologist for very simply reasons - salary, vacation, location. It's that simple. Or you work for an AMG and therefore can't fulfill two of the three criteria.

 

[POW16]

Maybe the location is desirable but the job isn't.

 

[anbuitachi]

i definitely do not remember posting that question! it was only 6 years ago too. now im ready to find a job, and... it's not looking that bad, but not great either. plenty of jobs.. but either salary/location/work-life balance or a combination isn't very good

 

[Mman]

but either salary/location/work-life balance or a combination isn't very good

the old saying is you get 2 out of 3 between money, time, and location. Not much has changed and probably not going to change any time soon.

 

[anbuitachi]

the old saying is you get 2 out of 3 between money, time, and location. Not much has changed and probably not going to change any time soon.

by the way, im sure i asked this before, but MGMA includes benefits right.. (employer contribution + health + malpractice coverage, and that adds a lot to the #).. otherwise it seems oddly high and definitely not even close to the #s im seeing on job searches

 

[BLADEMDA]

Necrobump but the dire predictions were very wrong. We’ll see what happens over the next five years.

I disagree. In my state the job market is terrible. Most salaries are in the mid 300s with tons of call. Jobs that offer over $450 get 10-20 applicants at a minimum per job. Jobs paying over $400 by most AMCs will work you very, very hard.

If you want 40 hours per week without call my prediction was spot on.

Partnerships (real ones) in desirable locations have all but dried up. This is now the new norm as the AMCs gain market share while new AMCs pop up everyday.

Even VA jobs have 20 applicants for each open position in desirable locations.

Zero chance if I had a Step 1 score over 245 that I'd pick this specialty today. But, with securing a residency at all these days being competitive I understand many, if not most, choosing Anesthesiology have limited options. So, my best advice is to avoid predatory groups or jobs and seek out those jobs still offering a decent wage for tolerable levels of work. That may mean the Midwest or West more often than the East Coast.

 

[sethco]

by the way, im sure i asked this before, but MGMA includes benefits right.. (employer contribution + health + malpractice coverage, and that adds a lot to the #).. otherwise it seems oddly high and definitely not even close to the #s im seeing on job searches

Yes, but it is Total Compensation, which includes not only benefits, but employer paid taxes such as the employer portion of Medicare and Social Security taxes. Keep in mind there is no income cap for Medicare taxes, unlike Social Security which stops at a certain income (128700 for this year). Basically total compensation would assume you are a 1099 contractor, then you would subtract self-paid benefits and taxes from this number

 

[Mman]

If you want 40 hours per week without call my prediction was spot on.

I'm assuming your prediction at that time was for a full time call position. 40 hours a week without call? That didn't pay anything 10 years ago either.

 

[MoMoGesiologist]

I disagree. In my state the job market is terrible. Most salaries are in the mid 300s with tons of call. Jobs that offer over $450 get 10-20 applicants at a minimum per job. Jobs paying over $400 by most AMCs will work you very, very hard.

If you want 40 hours per week without call my prediction was spot on.

Partnerships (real ones) in desirable locations have all but dried up. This is now the new norm as the AMCs gain market share while new AMCs pop up everyday.

Even VA jobs have 20 applicants for each open position in desirable locations.

Zero chance if I had a Step 1 score over 245 that I'd pick this specialty today. But, with securing a residency at all these days being competitive I understand many, if not most, choosing Anesthesiology have limited options. So, my best advice is to avoid predatory groups or jobs and seek out those jobs still offering a decent wage for tolerable levels of work. That may mean the Midwest or West more often than the East Coast.

What do you mean AMCs will work you very hard? Do you mean you'll work 65 hours a week, or supervise four rooms kinda hard? As someone graduating soon, would it be foolish to consider a job where I work hard if I think it'll solidify and expand my skill set? Or am I just getting taken advantage of if I work hard?

 

[pgg]

Necrobump but the dire predictions were very wrong. We’ll see what happens over the next five years.

I'm glad I was wrong about the inflation rate.

But the anesthesiologist job market is certainly nothing like it was 10 years ago. If anything, the overall AMC situation is worse than I imagined it would be.

Very, very wrong. I’ve been looking to attract a new full time partner for a couple years, but it’s hard to find. I live in a good sized city on the coast. It’s a desirable location. Just not that many people.

Odds are it's a high ratio supervision/firefighter job, or you're not offering enough money. Or both.

 

[nimbus]

Do you folks actually know any real life anesthesiologists making 250-275? Are residents actually getting PP offers that low anywhere? If so that’s <10th percentile.

 

[anbuitachi]

I disagree. In my state the job market is terrible. Most salaries are in the mid 300s with tons of call. Jobs that offer over $450 get 10-20 applicants at a minimum per job. Jobs paying over $400 by most AMCs will work you very, very hard.

If you want 40 hours per week without call my prediction was spot on.

Partnerships (real ones) in desirable locations have all but dried up. This is now the new norm as the AMCs gain market share while new AMCs pop up everyday.

Even VA jobs have 20 applicants for each open position in desirable locations.

Zero chance if I had a Step 1 score over 245 that I'd pick this specialty today. But, with securing a residency at all these days being competitive I understand many, if not most, choosing Anesthesiology have limited options. So, my best advice is to avoid predatory groups or jobs and seek out those jobs still offering a decent wage for tolerable levels of work. That may mean the Midwest or West more often than the East Coast.

Lets not get crazy over here, it's only been 6 years since the post. we still got 4 years to go and it can still get much worse
Most of the salaries i'm seeing are also 300s, with call . i'm not seeing any job over 450. AMCs i would say expect 65 hrs a week, close to 350-400, worked really hard

Yes, but it is Total Compensation, which includes not only benefits, but employer paid taxes such as the employer portion of Medicare and Social Security taxes. Keep in mind there is no income cap for Medicare taxes, unlike Social Security which stops at a certain income (128700 for this year). Basically total compensation would assume you are a 1099 contractor, then you would subtract self-paid benefits and taxes from this number

I see so this is very inflated compared to the average W2. Roughly 50k higher than salary? Malpractice is worth like 20k? Health+retirement probably another 20k. Employer tax ~10k?

Do you folks actually know any real life anesthesiologists making 250-275? Are residents actually getting PP offers that low anywhere? If so that’s <10th percentile.

definitely lower end if you include benefits. some places around here start in the low/mid 200s, but thats not including benefit

 

[Twiggidy]

Do you folks actually know any real life anesthesiologists making 250-275? Are residents actually getting PP offers that low anywhere? If so that’s <10th percentile.

These do sound like "no fellowship, academic job" numbers. I think even for us doom and gloomers on here know that most PP jobs are at least 350k and up and if they're lower there's the reason they have vacancies.

 

[AdmiralChz]

Do you folks actually know any real life anesthesiologists making 250-275? Are residents actually getting PP offers that low anywhere? If so that’s <10th percentile.

I had two “big name” academic programs offer me around this just a year ago. Some places pay you less as it’s an “honor” to work there or something.

And this was for cardiac, BTW.

 

[Twiggidy]

I disagree. In my state the job market is terrible. Most salaries are in the mid 300s with tons of call. Jobs that offer over $450 get 10-20 applicants at a minimum per job. Jobs paying over $400 by most AMCs will work you very, very hard.

If you want 40 hours per week without call my prediction was spot on.

Partnerships (real ones) in desirable locations have all but dried up. This is now the new norm as the AMCs gain market share while new AMCs pop up everyday.

Even VA jobs have 20 applicants for each open position in desirable locations.

Zero chance if I had a Step 1 score over 245 that I'd pick this specialty today. But, with securing a residency at all these days being competitive I understand many, if not most, choosing Anesthesiology have limited options. So, my best advice is to avoid predatory groups or jobs and seek out those jobs still offering a decent wage for tolerable levels of work. That may mean the Midwest or West more often than the East Coast.

I tend to agree with this. I feel like jobs are asking people take on a whole lot more responsibility with the same amount or fewer people, meaning you're either covering more rooms, taking more call, or working longer hours. The true "lifestyle" job with big time pay is rare to nonexistent now.

 

[deleted126335]

the old saying is you get 2 out of 3 between money, time, and location. Not much has changed and probably not going to change any time soon.

Something has changed. Money, Lifestyle, Location- pick one. Not two. Not for everyone. But for most new grads and most people looking to change jobs without a connection.

 

[Twiggidy]

I had two “big name” academic programs offer me around this just a year ago. Some places pay you less as it’s an “honor” to work there or something.

And this was for cardiac, BTW.

You would probably work less than a private practice job. I think that's how academic places justify that salary. I know covering residents can be a headache but I can make a strong argument that I work more and harder in private practice so the pay should be higher.

 

[GravelRider]

Do you folks actually know any real life anesthesiologists making 250-275? Are residents actually getting PP offers that low anywhere? If so that’s <10th percentile.

Yes. I’ve seen it. I also recently spoke to a friend who was looking at a new job and the offer was mid 200s. It sounded like a fake partnership track with some real sleezeballs running things.

The lowest AMC I’ve heard of is 300 and still working hard/taking call. I’ve seen numbers as low as 210-220 for academics.

 

[deleted171991]

Do you folks actually know any real life anesthesiologists making 250-275? Are residents actually getting PP offers that low anywhere? If so that’s <10th percentile.

I have never made more than 300 in 5+ years of activity, not even with benefits, for 40-60 hours x 46 weeks. I made less than 275 in most of them.

My current hourly rate of about $150 is the highest I have ever had (slightly more with benefits). And that's what matters. At this rate, I am not inclined to work more than 40 hours/week, especially if I am running around 4 miles/day. I am not lazy, I just have better things to do with my life.

 

[anbuitachi]

I have never made more than 300 in 5+ years of activity, not even with benefits. I made less than 275 in most of them.

My current hourly rate of about $150 is the highest I have ever had (slightly more with benefits). And that's what matters. At this rate, I am not inclined to work more than I have to.

Wait 150/hr for 40 hrs a week is ~300k a yr. before benefits!

 

[deleted171991]

I had two “big name” academic programs offer me around this just a year ago. Some places pay you less as it’s an “honor” to work there or something.

And this was for cardiac, BTW.

In my limited experience, it's most (academic) places.

 

[deleted171991]

Wait 150/hr for 40 hrs a week is ~300k a yr. before benefits!

You forgot 6 weeks of vacation.

 

[deleted171991]

I tend to agree with this. I feel like job are asking people take on a whole lot more responsibility with the same amount or fewer people, meaning you're either covering more rooms, taking more call, or working longer hours. The true "lifestyle" job with big time pay is rare to nonexistent now.

There is no more lifestyle job, period. Try to ask for a part-time or mommy-track job instead of the full-time they are advertising, and see the reaction. It's such a great market, full of jobs... suuuure, if one counts the bad ones, too.

If the market were good, one could easily negotiate a better lifestyle for less money, or anything else. Good luck to the new grads with "negotiating".

 

[Stank811]

I disagree. In my state the job market is terrible. Most salaries are in the mid 300s with tons of call. Jobs that offer over $450 get 10-20 applicants at a minimum per job. Jobs paying over $400 by most AMCs will work you very, very hard.

If you want 40 hours per week without call my prediction was spot on.

Partnerships (real ones) in desirable locations have all but dried up. This is now the new norm as the AMCs gain market share while new AMCs pop up everyday.

Even VA jobs have 20 applicants for each open position in desirable locations.

Zero chance if I had a Step 1 score over 245 that I'd pick this specialty today. But, with securing a residency at all these days being competitive I understand many, if not most, choosing Anesthesiology have limited options. So, my best advice is to avoid predatory groups or jobs and seek out those jobs still offering a decent wage for tolerable levels of work. That may mean the Midwest or West more often than the East Coast.

1) what was the main causative factor that resulted in your state to become such a terrible place to practice
2) Are payors paying more or less currently for anesthesia services compared to 6 yrs ago
3) what was someone paid six hrs ago for 40hrs a week with no call in a non partner scenario
4) can you provide evidence that AMC are gaining market share in anesthesiology in the past 2 yrs compared to the previous 5 prior

Thanks

 

[Section31]

I'm glad I was wrong about the inflation rate.

But the anesthesiologist job market is certainly nothing like it was 10 years ago. If anything, the overall AMC situation is worse than I imagined it would be.




Odds are it's a high ratio supervision/firefighter job, or you're not offering enough money. Or both.

We weren’t offering enough for a lot of that period, but that actually goes to my point about the job market favoring the anesthesiologist. The job itself is not a high ratio/ firefighter job. I’d say it’s pretty standard.

 

[Mman]

Something has changed. Money, Lifestyle, Location- pick one. Not two. Not for everyone. But for most new grads and most people looking to change jobs without a connection.

who doesn't have a connection to something? I assume everybody knows former residents and attendings from their program they trained at?

 

[Mman]

You would probably work less than a private practice job. I think that's how academic places justify that salary. I know covering residents can be a headache but I can make a strong argument that I work more and harder in private practice so the pay should be higher.

academic places justify their low salaries because of the prestige of working there (or so they claim).

The only people that take jobs in academics are people that have a dying need to teach, want to be a researcher, or can't hack it in the real world and none of those 3 groups of people are in position to demand/command a higher salary.