Shortage of anesthesiologists in the future? Can I match into a decent program?

[jayboyadams]

---

Members don't see this ad.

Im an MS3 who's interested in anesthesia. I'm not looking to match into a highly competitive academic program. I wouldn't mind matching into a small, community based program. Even then, with gas becoming so much more competitive every year, I'm a little worried about matching somewhere.

I'm currently attending my state school (MD program). I've gotten decent grades in 1st and 2nd year, all HPs. My Step 1 was a 209, and so far in my 3rd year, I'm getting Ps. I know I still have some time before I graduate, and hopefully I can turn my Ps into HPs/Hs during my 3rd and 4th years, and do well on Step 2. Based on my stats, should I be really worried about not landing a decent anesthesia residency? Or any residency? Again, I'm not looking to match at a prestigious academic program. Any advice for what I can do to improve my chances?

I was wondering if anyone has any opinions or insight into this, but I was talking to an anesthesiologist on one of my rotations, and he said there will be a shortage of anesthesiologists in the near future. He didn't say why this would be, and it seems to go against the prevailing attitude that gas is only getting more and more competitive every year. Any thoughts?

 

[amyl]

i don't think that there will be a shortage. it is all about supply and demand. yes the population is aging and living longer, sicker and thus will need more surgery but the midlevels are multiplying. 209 isn't bad, just study extra hard for step two and rock it and you will have no problems.

 

[jennyboo]

First, do a rotation at your local hospital and see if you like the field. Take advantage of the rotation by reading about some of the basics, and asking lots of questions during your rotation. You may find after doing a rotation that it is indeed a plausible career choice for you; alternatively, you may find that it's totally not you. You won't know until you test it for yourself.

If you do indeed want to go into anesthesiology, you should just apply. You sound like an average candidate and there are plenty of programs that can hire people like yourself. Medical students are anxious by nature and they usually think less of their own qualifications than is realistic. I think you can definitely get a residency.

You can also do an away rotation in the field of your choice at a "reach" residency program in order to help your chances of getting a job at a place that might otherwise not consider you. Apply early (like, start looking around for electives in January of your 3rd year) as the highly desired programs fill up their elective slots fast. If you can't decide between two fields, apply for electives in both and just cancel one later.

 

[deleted126335]

.

 

[mdjobexchange]

I agree that the pendulum can swing, but I would be very surprised if there were a "bust."

Locums rates are up from $1100/day to $1300/day in the last 2 or 3 years. Number of jobs on Gaswork keeps going up. Was around 800 7 years ago, now averages around 1500.

CRNAs and AAs are an issue, but there is a nursing shortage, not to mention most nurses today are not very well trained, so that will probably translate into poorly trained CRNAs. Nurses today are not nearly the same as they used to be. I am not against nurses, but nursing schools seem to have lost their focus. Many programs seem bent on teaching paperwork and billing. Many younger nurses I know are frustrated with their training.

So, I don't know that CRNAs are going to fill the entire gap. I stressed about them back when I was in training (2001) and they have had no effect on my income or ability to find a job. If anybody has some real, hard data on CRNA enrollment (and graduation, some CRNA programs have high attrition rates), I would greatly appreciate it if you could post it or PM it to me.

With the baby boomers retiring and Gen X and Gen Y not wanting the same lifestyle as baby boomer anesthesiologists, I think the demand is going to remain similar. Some people do think that it is somewhat easier to hire anesthesiologists today versus 5 years ago, but that is relative. Going from "really hard" to "sort of hard" is a change, but still a good job market. I recruit for my hospital and I would still classify hiring an anesthesiologist as "hard".

 

[core0]

snip

So, I don't know that CRNAs are going to fill the entire gap. I stressed about them back when I was in training (2001) and they have had no effect on my income or ability to find a job. If anybody has some real, hard data on CRNA enrollment (and graduation, some CRNA programs have high attrition rates), I would greatly appreciate it if you could post it or PM it to me.

The best data source is:
2006-2007 Enrollment and Graduations in Baccalaureate and Graduate Programs in Nursing
This is published by the AACN.
http://www.aacn.nche.edu/Publications/pubscatalog.htm
It's toward the bottom. Unfortunately only about half of the CRNA programs reported data (as compared to 80% overall). The data that was provided shows 53 programs with 2793 students and 844 graduates. This would imply approximately a 40% attrition rate. The programs seem fairly representative so you could probably come close by doubling those numbers. This would actually be larger than what the AANA states:

"In 1990, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services published findings indicating a national shortage of almost 5,400 nurse anesthetists. The study concluded that nurse anesthesia educational programs would need to produce between 1,500 and 1,800 graduates annually to meet societal nurse anesthesia demands by the year 2010. Nevertheless, only about 1,000 nurse anesthesia students graduate annually."

I am not sure how old the data is and this may not reflect the rise in CRNA programs since 1990 if the numbers were taken then.

David Carpenter, PA-C

 

[deleted126335]

.

 

[mdjobexchange]

That is interesting to hear. I am on my mobile, which does not allow me to pull up your profile. What type of practice are you in? I wonder if you may be in a more desirable practice that is better known and gets more interest due to that.

At the ASA a few weeks ago, I did hear from a guy at a big group that they were not having to work as hard to recruit.

On the converse, gaswork has added higher salary ranges in the past few years. They used to go up to over 400k, now they go up to 600k. Is it supply and demand or better management, I imagine it is some of both. the pendulum is probably swinging back, but, I feel the market for anesthesia will still be good, the past few years have been off the charts. It is probably best, because when a specialty gets too scarce, it creates bad press.

 

[PMPMD]

jayboyadams,

sent you a PM

 

[deleted126335]

.

 

[VentdependenT]

I hope you are wrong as well.

For now though, it is not difficult to attain a job.