Shortage of Thoracic Surgeons in 2020 and Beyond

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By 2020, Zorp the Surveyor will have destroyed the Earth to use as fuel...


....Yeah. It's four years old, but I'm certain the shortage will occur. Same for many other specialties. Fairly clear.
 
J Senpai said:
By 2020, Zorp the Surveyor will have destroyed the Earth to use as fuel...


....Yeah. It's four years old, but I'm certain the shortage will occur. Same for many other specialties. Fairly clear.
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Or the Terminator Apocalypse will actually happen (Judgement Day was supposed to be in 1997 so maybe it has been postponed).

But yeah, a shortage of CT surgeons does sound troubling. Maybe we'll start importing them a few years from now.
 
Its already pretty competitive to match into so its not like there isn't any interest in it.

Idk if much of an opinion can be formed.

Cyberdyne 101 said:
Or the Terminator Apocalypse will actually happen (Judgement Day was supposed to be in 1997 so maybe it has been postponed).

But yeah, a shortage of CT surgeons does sound troubling. Maybe we'll start importing them a few years from now.
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I know you're joking, but this has always been a small fear of mine. [Tin foil hat time] If our government decides that there is too much of a shortage and decides to look into allowing people trained outside the US in their respective residency to practice here without going through residency here. I know the idea is insanely stupid, but from the government's perspective, it would make physician salary cheaper (most industrialized countries offer free health education) and it will correct the problem immediately. And there certainly isn't a dearth in the number of international doctors wanting to practice here and already completed residency in their home country.
 
darklabel said:
Its already pretty competitive to match into so its not like there isn't any interest in it.

Idk if much of an opinion can be formed.



I know you're joking, but this has always been a small fear of mine. [Tin foil hat time] If our government decides that there is too much of a shortage and decides to look into allowing people trained outside the US in their respective residency to practice here without going through residency here. I know the idea is insanely stupid, but from the government's perspective, it would make physician salary cheaper (most industrialized countries offer free health education) and it will correct the problem immediately. And there certainly isn't a dearth in the number of international doctors wanting to practice here and already completed residency in their home country.
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I actually wasn't joking about "importing" them. It was honestly the only solution that I could think of. Obviously, I'm not well versed in the epidemiology of CV illness, but maybe serious prevention efforts can help alleviate this somewhat (i.e. a healthier aging population).
 
darklabel said:
Ahh sorry, I was thinking about integrated 6-year cardiothoracic residencies. I didn't really think about the fellowships offered.
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Most go the fellow route. There aren't very many integrated programs and they're insanely competitive to get into.
 
WillburCobb said:
I'll come back later with the source but ~60% of CT surgery fellowship spots go unfilled.
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Jesus, that's a lot. Maybe increasing the number of integrated programs will help. I believe vascular surgery is attempting this. But then again VS, is not what it used to be given the endovascular technology.
 

Attachments

WillburCobb said:
Most go the fellow route. There aren't very many integrated programs and they're insanely competitive to get into.
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Boom, make more of those and you can see the problem start to be relieved.

Besides, capitalism will help correct the problem. Once there is a shortage, income for CT's go up and general surgeons will fill up those spots.
 
What specialty isn't predicting a shortage?
 
Aren't 5+5 programs normal as well? I feel like I remember that from the AMA type thread by a CT surgeon.

Anyways, I shadowed one and it was definitely enjoyable. But currently the training + hours don't make it very appealing for me.
 
darklabel said:
Radiology, pathology and gas I believe.
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I was actually being a little facetious. Even pathology is predicting a shortage by 2020 or something like that, even though they are arguably the worst market in medicine.
 
WillburCobb said:
I'll come back later with the source but ~60% of CT surgery fellowship spots go unfilled.
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Blah, I'm having trouble finding it. It was NRMP data from 2 years ago. The data I could though find was from 2007-2008 and shows ~60% of spots go filled and ~40% go unfilled (which is similar to what I remember seeing for the 2012 data) - so yeah my number was a bit exaggerated, but none the less that seems like a substantial number of unfilled spots. Right now there are only a few (~30) integrated spots, hence why they're so competitive. My main PI is a CT surgeon and basically what I've gotten from him is that CT surgery is something you really have to want to do (he absolutely LOVES it FWIW). 5 years of surgery residency (which many/most consider pretty hellish) + 2-3 more years of fellowship for little financial gain + the 2-3 years of attending salary that you be loosing + decreased compensation (this I've mainly heard from older surgeons who've been practicing since the 60s and 70s) = you've gotta really want to do it to pursue it. A little over a year ago I went out with my PI and some other CT surgeons while at a meeting for work and remember a similar conversation coming-up. Many of the docs were complaining about how difficult it is for them to convince their residents to go into CT surg fellowships and their frustrations with the specialty's future in that regard. I guess only time will tell.
 
There are shortages of every specialty depending on the day of the week, the phase of the moon, and whatever professional organization happens to be collecting the data. I wouldn't put too much stock in this kind of thing - ESPECIALLY when ultimately choosing a career. This "shortage" might become a surplus by the time you finish your training a decade later.


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NickNaylor said:
There are shortages of every specialty depending on the day of the week, the phase of the moon, and whatever professional organization happens to be collecting the data. I wouldn't put too much stock in this kind of thing - ESPECIALLY when ultimately choosing a career. This "shortage" might become a surplus by the time you finish your training a decade later.


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How can a shortage become a surplus, especially with a growing aging patient population and the inevitable retirement of older doctors within any given specialty?
 
Cyberdyne 101 said:
How can a shortage become a surplus, especially with a growing aging patient population and the inevitable retirement of older doctors within any given specialty?
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Too many people go into the field to address the shortage/take advantage of incentives for doing so, and then eventually that field becomes over saturated. This happened with CT surg in the 90s. People are predicting similar trends for cards and GI.
 
Cyberdyne 101 said:
How can a shortage become a surplus, especially with a growing aging patient population and the inevitable retirement of older doctors within any given specialty?
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You take my point too seriously. The real point is that these claims are effectively bull**** that should matter next to zero in terms of decisions you make in your life. As I said, there is a shortage of every specialty depending upon who says there is and whatever arbitrary criteria are used to define shortage. It's pretty similar to Chicken Little. At some point it just becomes pointless fear mongering.

Edit: SDN y u edit my cursing???


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NickNaylor said:
You take my point too seriously. The real point is that these claims are effectively bullcrap that should matter next to zero in terms of decisions you make in your life. As I said, there is a shortage of every specialty depending upon who says there is and whatever arbitrary criteria are used to define shortage. It's pretty similar to Chicken Little. At some point it just becomes pointless fear mongering.

Edit: SDN y u edit my cursing???


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Never said this impacted my personal decisions. Otherwise, why bother?
 
WillburCobb said:
Too many people go into the field to address the shortage/take advantage of incentives for doing so, and then eventually that field becomes over saturated. This happened with CT surg in the 90s. People are predicting similar trends for cards and GI.
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Thanks, just learned something new (in a seriousness).
 
Cyberdyne 101 said:
Thanks, just learned something new (in a seriousness).
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@NickNaylor 's response is solid though, the numbers can vary as a function of whose interests they represent. Whether or not a field is over or under saturated (well maybe over saturated) shouldn't influence what you go into. Interest in the field and lifestyle are much more important factors to consider.
 
NickNaylor said:
Then what's the point of posting the article?


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To have a conservation about the shortage of CT surgeons given the prevalence of CV illness, a possible shortage of docs, and a growing patient population. Not to worry, next time I'll be sure to ask for your permission.
 
WillburCobb said:
@NickNaylor 's response is solid though, the numbers can vary as a function of whose interests they represent. Whether or not a field is over or under saturated (well maybe over saturated) shouldn't influence what you go into. Interest in the field and lifestyle are much more important factors to consider.
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Thats true, but reading on here from pathologists, it makes it seem like pathology will never correct itself since there are too many residencies available that will continually be filled by IMGs even as USMDs avoid it and thus we continue to pump more pathologists than needed. Hopefully this gets corrected, but it seems theres so much doom and gloom over there that I should effectively write off the field 3 years from now when I really think about my future career.

Gas has the whole encroachment issue from CRNAs (which seems like the field stabbed themselves in the foot by allowing cheaper and less qualified workforce to help them).

And radiology idk, I just read on here that the job market isn't as robust as other fields, but hopefully that is cyclical.
 
Cyberdyne 101 said:
To have a conservation about the shortage of CT surgeons given the prevalence of CV illness, a possible shortage of docs, and a growing patient population. Not to worry, next time I'll be sure to ask for your permission.
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It's not about having permission. It's about using your brain and understanding how these conclusions are made and whether they should even matter. Everything you said is equally applicable to every specialty. Substitute CV risk for whatever specialty-specific risk that is increasing in prevalence and voila, a shortage is created!


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WillburCobb said:
@NickNaylor 's response is solid though, the numbers can vary as a function of whose interests they represent. Whether or not a field is over or under saturated (well maybe over saturated) shouldn't influence what you go into. Interest in the field and lifestyle are much more important factors to consider.
Click to expand...
Yeah duh. I never expressed interest in CT surgery. I often hear about shortages in primary care and I have no interest in PC either. Honestly, I wasn't aware of a possible overall shortage of doctors. I only thought it applied to PC and a few specialities (guess I learned something new over the past 12 hrs which is the purpose of this). There may even be a shortage of ortho surgeons. And as @darklabel mentioned earlier we may start "importing" physicians. That may not impact me personally, but it will have an effect on the overall medical field.
 
The pendulum swings with each specialty. Except for maybe primary care specialties which seem to always have a heavy shortage, the numbers go up and down, compensation changes according to demand. This is why you need to go into what you love doing and concentrate less on what is in the most demand. What is hot one year can swing the other way the next. In our era, rads and gas are prime examples. To the OP regarding CT surgery, yes, there probably will be a shortage like many specialties. My opinion is it will be much less dramatic than predicted. The reason I say this is that the number of procedures is going down. Interventional cards is doing way more stenting etc that used to be handled in the OR through bypass. Interventional rads is doing many guided procedures in the chest that used to be the domain of CT surgery. As we move to less invasive interventions, there are less reasons to take someone to the OR.
 
Cyberdyne 101 said:
How can a shortage become a surplus, especially with a growing aging patient population and the inevitable retirement of older doctors within any given specialty?
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Because these types of projections are always loads of horse ****, designed to drive down salaries and provide program directors with more slave labor. Look at the 'projected shortage' in pathology and then look at the garbage jobs that new pathologists land after doing 2 fellowships, if they can even find a job.
 
circulus vitios said:
Because these types of projections are always loads of horse ****, designed to drive down salaries and provide program directors with more slave labor. Look at the 'projected shortage' in pathology and then look at the garbage jobs that new pathologists land after doing 2 fellowships, if they can even find a job.
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Seems like an effective strategy if that's really the case.
 
We also had a 'projected shortage' of radiologists in the early 2000s. Now the radiology job market is becoming more like the pathology job market.
 
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